0xdf90…41f0

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xdf903ee52261f475ee5a02f9189acdb7cdba41f0
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.0pp

ROI

+56%

Win rate

35% @ 25.9¢

Brier

0.158

Resolved

3436

Avg size

$25

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	47% (87/184)	+36%	184
Politics	32% (25/77)	+115%	77
Geopolitics	27% (13/49)	-30%	49
Sports	33% (3/9)	-27%	9

Other184 bets
Hit rate
47% (87/184)
ROI
+36%
Politics77 bets
Hit rate
32% (25/77)
ROI
+115%
Geopolitics49 bets
Hit rate
27% (13/49)
ROI
-30%
Sports9 bets
Hit rate
33% (3/9)
ROI
-27%

Track record

40% hit · 128/319

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$26	2.1¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?	Yes	$57	0.6¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 15, 2026?	No	$4	14.3¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 15, 2026?	Yes	$54	30.6¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	No	$40	36.8¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$2.3k	49.5¢	Won
Will the US next strike Iran on January 30, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$2	5.2¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria?	Yes	$169	0.3¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?	Yes	$50	8.0¢	Lost
Israel military action against Syria by September 30, 2026?	No	$983	81.2¢	Won
Israel military action against Syria by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$18	13.1¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?	No	$6	30.0¢	Won
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?	Yes	$107	31.2¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	$50	33.1¢	Lost
Israel military action against Lebanon on September 8?	No	$84	15.8¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	No	$685	7.3¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$676	29.8¢	Lost
Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$3	0.6¢	Lost
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	No	$400	23.4¢	Lost
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	Yes	$145	35.3¢	Won
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by September 30?	Yes	$104	3.5¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	$800	13.3¢	Lost
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	No	$120	9.0¢	Won
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	$25	0.7¢	Lost
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$51	5.2¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	Yes	$5	24.0¢	Won
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 10, 2026?	Yes	$13	23.4¢	Lost
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 14, 2026?	Yes	$761	57.9¢	Won
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?	Yes	$69	23.0¢	Won
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026?	Yes	$414	76.2¢	Lost
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$406	14.3¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 27, 2026?	Yes	$12	19.9¢	Lost
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?	No	$50	62.2¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?	Yes	$548	31.4¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?	No	$232	11.3¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 8, 2026?	Yes	$83	71.4¢	Won
Will Iran target Bahrain by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$55	55.0¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 14, 2026?	Yes	$161	35.0¢	Lost
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	$625	80.6¢	Won
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	$253	58.8¢	Won
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by September 30?	Yes	$190	6.5¢	Lost
Will Iran target Bahrain by September 15, 2026?	Yes	$32	53.5¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 24, 2026?	Yes	$99	25.6¢	Lost
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	$100	40.0¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?	No	$39	19.5¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?	Yes	$36	28.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	No	$109	20.8¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$317	1.0¢	Won
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	No	$853	73.6¢	Won
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Yes	$1.3k	36.9¢	Lost

Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$26 @ 2.1¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?Lost
Yes$57 @ 0.6¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 15, 2026?Lost
No$4 @ 14.3¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 15, 2026?Won
Yes$54 @ 30.6¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Lost
No$40 @ 36.8¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$2.3k @ 49.5¢
Will the US next strike Iran on January 30, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$2 @ 5.2¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria?Lost
Yes$169 @ 0.3¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?Lost
Yes$50 @ 8.0¢
Israel military action against Syria by September 30, 2026?Won
No$983 @ 81.2¢
Israel military action against Syria by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$18 @ 13.1¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?Won
No$6 @ 30.0¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$107 @ 31.2¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$50 @ 33.1¢
Israel military action against Lebanon on September 8?Lost
No$84 @ 15.8¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Won
No$685 @ 7.3¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$676 @ 29.8¢
Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.6¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Lost
No$400 @ 23.4¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Won
Yes$145 @ 35.3¢
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by September 30?Lost
Yes$104 @ 3.5¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Lost
Yes$800 @ 13.3¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Won
No$120 @ 9.0¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Lost
Yes$25 @ 0.7¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$51 @ 5.2¢
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Won
Yes$5 @ 24.0¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 10, 2026?Lost
Yes$13 @ 23.4¢
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 14, 2026?Won
Yes$761 @ 57.9¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Won
Yes$69 @ 23.0¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026?Lost
Yes$414 @ 76.2¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$406 @ 14.3¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 27, 2026?Lost
Yes$12 @ 19.9¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?Won
No$50 @ 62.2¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?Lost
Yes$548 @ 31.4¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$232 @ 11.3¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 8, 2026?Won
Yes$83 @ 71.4¢
Will Iran target Bahrain by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$55 @ 55.0¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 14, 2026?Lost
Yes$161 @ 35.0¢
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31?Won
No$625 @ 80.6¢
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?Won
Yes$253 @ 58.8¢
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by September 30?Lost
Yes$190 @ 6.5¢
Will Iran target Bahrain by September 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$32 @ 53.5¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 24, 2026?Lost
Yes$99 @ 25.6¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Won
No$100 @ 40.0¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?Lost
No$39 @ 19.5¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$36 @ 28.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Lost
No$109 @ 20.8¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
Yes$317 @ 1.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Won
No$853 @ 73.6¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 36.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?	Politics	Yes	$2.2k	89.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	Politics	Yes	$2.0k	79.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Politics	Yes	$1.7k	60.9¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.5k	76.2¢
Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.2k	72.7¢
Will USD be at least 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$939	72.5¢
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$837	89.5¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?	Politics	No	$771	40.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$648	81.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?	Politics	No	$576	65.9¢
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Qatar by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$436	65.0¢
Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?	Politics	No	$406	85.0¢
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 6?	Geopolitics	Yes	$289	84.0¢
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by December 31?	Politics	No	$250	76.9¢
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$249	12.7¢
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$213	92.9¢
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31?	Politics	No	$199	76.4¢
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 2?	Geopolitics	Yes	$188	94.0¢
Will USD be at least 4.0M Iranian rials on December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$174	4.4¢
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026?	Politics	No	$153	82.8¢
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 8?	Geopolitics	Yes	$150	77.4¢
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 3?	Geopolitics	Yes	$127	91.9¢
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 4?	Geopolitics	Yes	$113	87.0¢
Israel x Syria diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$110	18.9¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	Politics	No	$110	73.0¢
Will USD be between 2.7M and 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$109	16.8¢
Will USD be between 3.5M and 4.0M Iranian rials on December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$102	10.0¢
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 5?	Geopolitics	Yes	$93	86.9¢
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$89	89.5¢
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by October 31?	Geopolitics	No	$88	88.0¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?Politics
Yes$2.2k @ 89.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?Politics
Yes$2.0k @ 79.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Politics
Yes$1.7k @ 60.9¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.5k @ 76.2¢
Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.2k @ 72.7¢
Will USD be at least 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$939 @ 72.5¢
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$837 @ 89.5¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?Politics
No$771 @ 40.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$648 @ 81.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?Politics
No$576 @ 65.9¢
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Qatar by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$436 @ 65.0¢
Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?Politics
No$406 @ 85.0¢
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 6?Geopolitics
Yes$289 @ 84.0¢
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by December 31?Politics
No$250 @ 76.9¢
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$249 @ 12.7¢
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?Geopolitics
No$213 @ 92.9¢
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31?Politics
No$199 @ 76.4¢
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 2?Geopolitics
Yes$188 @ 94.0¢
Will USD be at least 4.0M Iranian rials on December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$174 @ 4.4¢
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026?Politics
No$153 @ 82.8¢
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 8?Geopolitics
Yes$150 @ 77.4¢
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 3?Geopolitics
Yes$127 @ 91.9¢
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 4?Geopolitics
Yes$113 @ 87.0¢
Israel x Syria diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$110 @ 18.9¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)Politics
No$110 @ 73.0¢
Will USD be between 2.7M and 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$109 @ 16.8¢
Will USD be between 3.5M and 4.0M Iranian rials on December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$102 @ 10.0¢
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 5?Geopolitics
Yes$93 @ 86.9¢
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by December 31?Geopolitics
No$89 @ 89.5¢
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by October 31?Geopolitics
No$88 @ 88.0¢