← Smart money
0xdf4a…1b1b
SharpEdge
+23.3pp
ROI
+46%
Win rate
74% @ 50.9¢
Brier
0.171
Resolved
31
Avg size
$57
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 69% (9/13) | +46% | 13 |
| Politics | 100% (1/1) | +31% | 1 |
- Other13 bets
- Hit rate
- 69% (9/13)
- ROI
- +46%
- Politics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +31%
Track record
71% hit · 10/14| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Yes | $6 | 64.9¢ | Lost |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? | No | $25 | 76.4¢ | Won |
| Tigers vs. Mariners | Mariners | $540 | 45.0¢ | Won |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting? | No | $2 | 16.0¢ | Lost |
| Will a Republican win Arizona Presidential Election? | Yes | $5 | 76.0¢ | Won |
| Will Solana reach $240 September 29-October 5? | Yes | $348 | 58.0¢ | Lost |
| Will McLaren win the 2024 F1 Constructor’s Championship? | Yes | $15 | 79.0¢ | Won |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-01? | Yes | $79 | 79.0¢ | Won |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | No | $20 | 81.0¢ | Won |
| Bitcoin above $94,000 on January 3? | Yes | $30 | 61.5¢ | Won |
| 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 155-214 | Yes | $8 | 0.1¢ | Lost |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Yes | $665 | 59.4¢ | Won |
| Will a Republican win Iowa Presidential Election? | Yes | $10 | 82.0¢ | Won |
| Will Adrian Dittman prove he's not Elon Musk? | No | $20 | 88.0¢ | Won |
- Yes$6 @ 64.9¢
- No$25 @ 76.4¢
- Mariners$540 @ 45.0¢
- No$2 @ 16.0¢
- Yes$5 @ 76.0¢
- Yes$348 @ 58.0¢
- Yes$15 @ 79.0¢
- Yes$79 @ 79.0¢
- No$20 @ 81.0¢
- Yes$30 @ 61.5¢
- Yes$8 @ 0.1¢
- Yes$665 @ 59.4¢
- Yes$10 @ 82.0¢
- No$20 @ 88.0¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Politics | No | $345 | 93.7¢ |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | Geopolitics | No | $191 | 95.7¢ |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in October? | Crypto | No | $39 | 96.7¢ |
| Will BNB dip to $200 by December 31, 2026? | Crypto | No | $39 | 96.3¢ |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31? | Politics | No | $30 | 97.0¢ |
- No$345 @ 93.7¢
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?GeopoliticsNo$191 @ 95.7¢
- No$39 @ 96.7¢
- No$39 @ 96.3¢
- No$30 @ 97.0¢