0xdf34…dc86

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xdf34a77fe9c5cd96c297f7744d53f9025412dc86
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.7pp

ROI

+11%

Win rate

65% @ 56.9¢

Brier

0.172

Resolved

728

Avg size

$63

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	59% (32/54)	+10%	54
Geopolitics	64% (14/22)	+17%	22
Other	52% (11/21)	+3%	21
Tech	50% (4/8)	+35%	8
Culture	50% (1/2)	+5%	2
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Politics54 bets
Hit rate
59% (32/54)
ROI
+10%
Geopolitics22 bets
Hit rate
64% (14/22)
ROI
+17%
Other21 bets
Hit rate
52% (11/21)
ROI
+3%
Tech8 bets
Hit rate
50% (4/8)
ROI
+35%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+5%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

57% hit · 62/108

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	Yes	$60	30.0¢	Won
CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?	No	$18	8.1¢	Lost
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 15?	No	$29	22.3¢	Lost
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 15?	Yes	$125	75.7¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$1.8k	63.5¢	Won
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	No	$150	30.0¢	Lost
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$393	78.0¢	Won
Will Drake release a new album by September 30?	No	$388	74.7¢	Won
Will Drake release a new album by September 30?	Yes	$106	27.9¢	Lost
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?	Yes	$41	39.1¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	$612	53.7¢	Lost
Will Iran target Iraq by September 30, 2026?	No	$58	46.7¢	Lost
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by September 30?	No	$34	25.4¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?	No	$80	80.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	$2.1k	85.5¢	Won
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	No	$237	37.7¢	Won
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$217	71.7¢	Won
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?	No	$680	73.9¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	$170	34.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$670	83.8¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$2.7k	69.1¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$310	62.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	$275	70.0¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	No	$959	67.5¢	Won
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	Yes	$4	4.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	$213	71.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	Yes	$329	32.8¢	Lost
Ren Zhengfei public appearance by October 31?	No	$47	35.4¢	Lost
Ren Zhengfei public appearance by October 31?	Yes	$73	51.0¢	Won
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	No	$463	64.1¢	Won
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	No	$8	84.0¢	Won
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$190	38.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$699	58.3¢	Won
Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	No	$1.4k	82.1¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	No	$80	40.0¢	Lost
NVIDIA (NVDA) all-time high by September 30, 2026?	No	$3	25.5¢	Won
Trump renames AI by October 31?	Yes	$405	80.4¢	Won
Starmer out by October 31, 2026?	No	$24	6.0¢	Lost
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by November 15?	Yes	$406	65.2¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$175	87.5¢	Won
Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026?	No	$48	33.3¢	Lost
Trump renames AI by September 30?	No	$100	28.9¢	Lost
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	$394	56.5¢	Won
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	$42	42.0¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by July 27?	No	$481	68.7¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	$811	77.2¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$1.5k	80.3¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$2.0k	71.7¢	Won
Ren Zhengfei public appearance by December 31?	Yes	$145	81.4¢	Won
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?	Yes	$122	61.0¢	Won

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Won
Yes$60 @ 30.0¢
CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?Lost
No$18 @ 8.1¢
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 15?Lost
No$29 @ 22.3¢
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 15?Won
Yes$125 @ 75.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$1.8k @ 63.5¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$150 @ 30.0¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$393 @ 78.0¢
Will Drake release a new album by September 30?Won
No$388 @ 74.7¢
Will Drake release a new album by September 30?Lost
Yes$106 @ 27.9¢
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?Won
Yes$41 @ 39.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$612 @ 53.7¢
Will Iran target Iraq by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$58 @ 46.7¢
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by September 30?Lost
No$34 @ 25.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?Won
No$80 @ 80.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Won
Yes$2.1k @ 85.5¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Won
No$237 @ 37.7¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$217 @ 71.7¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?Won
No$680 @ 73.9¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Won
No$170 @ 34.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$670 @ 83.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$2.7k @ 69.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$310 @ 62.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Won
No$275 @ 70.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Won
No$959 @ 67.5¢
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?Lost
Yes$4 @ 4.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?Won
No$213 @ 71.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?Lost
Yes$329 @ 32.8¢
Ren Zhengfei public appearance by October 31?Lost
No$47 @ 35.4¢
Ren Zhengfei public appearance by October 31?Won
Yes$73 @ 51.0¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Won
No$463 @ 64.1¢
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?Won
No$8 @ 84.0¢
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$190 @ 38.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$699 @ 58.3¢
Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?Won
No$1.4k @ 82.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?Lost
No$80 @ 40.0¢
NVIDIA (NVDA) all-time high by September 30, 2026?Won
No$3 @ 25.5¢
Trump renames AI by October 31?Won
Yes$405 @ 80.4¢
Starmer out by October 31, 2026?Lost
No$24 @ 6.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by November 15?Won
Yes$406 @ 65.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$175 @ 87.5¢
Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$48 @ 33.3¢
Trump renames AI by September 30?Lost
No$100 @ 28.9¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Won
No$394 @ 56.5¢
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's US Open?Lost
Yes$42 @ 42.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 27?Won
No$481 @ 68.7¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Won
No$811 @ 77.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
No$1.5k @ 80.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$2.0k @ 71.7¢
Ren Zhengfei public appearance by December 31?Won
Yes$145 @ 81.4¢
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?Won
Yes$122 @ 61.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$852	85.8¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	Geopolitics	No	$562	71.9¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$369	70.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Politics	No	$340	63.3¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$338	37.0¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$185	52.8¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$164	73.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Politics	Yes	$160	46.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Business	No	$160	36.1¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Business	Yes	$160	82.9¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$148	62.4¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$134	88.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$114	63.7¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Business	No	$100	50.0¢
Meta's Watermelon released by November 30, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$98	95.0¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$90	33.8¢
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$60	27.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$56	56.8¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?	Politics	No	$47	74.0¢
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$45	70.8¢
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$34	37.6¢
Will Iran target Jordan by October 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$31	67.3¢
Will there be at least 4500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Science	No	$31	30.0¢
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$26	41.0¢
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?	Politics	No	$24	73.0¢
Will it snow in Salt Lake City, UT by November 30?	Science	Yes	$18	86.0¢
Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by November 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$17	48.0¢
Will Iran target an Arab country by October 15, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$16	62.0¢
Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by October 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$15	69.0¢
Will SB Energy IPO by October 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$11	11.0¢

Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$852 @ 85.8¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Geopolitics
No$562 @ 71.9¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$369 @ 70.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Politics
No$340 @ 63.3¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$338 @ 37.0¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$185 @ 52.8¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$164 @ 73.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Politics
Yes$160 @ 46.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Business
No$160 @ 36.1¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Business
Yes$160 @ 82.9¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$148 @ 62.4¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026?Geopolitics
No$134 @ 88.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$114 @ 63.7¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Business
No$100 @ 50.0¢
Meta's Watermelon released by November 30, 2026?Tech
Yes$98 @ 95.0¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$90 @ 33.8¢
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?Crypto
Yes$60 @ 27.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$56 @ 56.8¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?Politics
No$47 @ 74.0¢
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?Tech
No$45 @ 70.8¢
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$34 @ 37.6¢
Will Iran target Jordan by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$31 @ 67.3¢
Will there be at least 4500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Science
No$31 @ 30.0¢
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by December 31?Politics
Yes$26 @ 41.0¢
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?Politics
No$24 @ 73.0¢
Will it snow in Salt Lake City, UT by November 30?Science
Yes$18 @ 86.0¢
Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by November 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$17 @ 48.0¢
Will Iran target an Arab country by October 15, 2026?Geopolitics
No$16 @ 62.0¢
Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$15 @ 69.0¢
Will SB Energy IPO by October 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$11 @ 11.0¢