0xdf01…6865

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xdf0105cff891c77f232a623f596ddf17d7bf6865
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+14.9pp

ROI

+10%

Win rate

46% @ 31.3¢

Brier

0.182

Resolved

117

Avg size

$140

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	30% (8/27)	+8%	27
Sports	50% (2/4)	+130%	4
Crypto	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Politics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other27 bets
Hit rate
30% (8/27)
ROI
+8%
Sports4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+130%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Politics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

29% hit · 10/35

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Trump talk to Elon Musk in September?	Yes	$330	13.0¢	Won
Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be less than 300k?	No	$149	35.5¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?	Yes	$20	9.0¢	Lost
Raiders vs. Jets	Jets	$101	54.0¢	Lost
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	$1.8k	6.3¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80-90 million views on week 1?	Yes	$165	4.5¢	Lost
Will Apple's iPhone 17 Pro cost more than $1000 when it launches?	No	$300	44.9¢	Lost
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner?	Yes	$225	3.5¢	Lost
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?	Yes	$168	56.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?	Yes	$500	56.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$800	19.9¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$946	0.7¢	Lost
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31?	Yes	$100	2.5¢	Lost
Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5)	Buccaneers	$102	49.0¢	Won
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 15?	Yes	$200	13.1¢	Lost
Cowboys vs. Eagles	Eagles	$1.0k	80.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 5?	Yes	$56	75.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?	Yes	$150	11.0¢	Lost
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	$200	5.2¢	Lost
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$1.2k	37.0¢	Won
US strike on Cuba by January 31?	Yes	$150	2.7¢	Lost
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30?	Yes	$1.0k	83.7¢	Won
Will the Government shutdown end by November 7?	Yes	$16	5.4¢	Lost
Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	$1.2k	48.1¢	Won
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be under 2500000?	No	$2.2k	52.3¢	Won
Spread: Bills (-4.5)	Ravens	$101	57.0¢	Lost
Will Coinbase Global (COIN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$1.9k	81.0¢	Won
Magic vs. Hawks	Magic	$50	43.0¢	Lost
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 30?	Yes	$400	88.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on March 16?	Yes	$13	0.1¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?	Yes	$60	59.0¢	Lost
Will MrBeast say "Insane" during his next video?	Yes	$400	72.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$210	0.3¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?	Yes	$20	6.0¢	Lost
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?	Yes	$63	0.5¢	Lost

Will Trump talk to Elon Musk in September?Won
Yes$330 @ 13.0¢
Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be less than 300k?Lost
No$149 @ 35.5¢
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?Lost
Yes$20 @ 9.0¢
Raiders vs. JetsLost
Jets$101 @ 54.0¢
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?Lost
Yes$1.8k @ 6.3¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80-90 million views on week 1?Lost
Yes$165 @ 4.5¢
Will Apple's iPhone 17 Pro cost more than $1000 when it launches?Lost
No$300 @ 44.9¢
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner?Lost
Yes$225 @ 3.5¢
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?Won
Yes$168 @ 56.0¢
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$500 @ 56.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$800 @ 19.9¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$946 @ 0.7¢
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31? Lost
Yes$100 @ 2.5¢
Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5)Won
Buccaneers$102 @ 49.0¢
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 15?Lost
Yes$200 @ 13.1¢
Cowboys vs. EaglesWon
Eagles$1.0k @ 80.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 5?Won
Yes$56 @ 75.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?Lost
Yes$150 @ 11.0¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$200 @ 5.2¢
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 37.0¢
US strike on Cuba by January 31?Lost
Yes$150 @ 2.7¢
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30?Won
Yes$1.0k @ 83.7¢
Will the Government shutdown end by November 7?Lost
Yes$16 @ 5.4¢
Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 48.1¢
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be under 2500000?Won
No$2.2k @ 52.3¢
Spread: Bills (-4.5)Lost
Ravens$101 @ 57.0¢
Will Coinbase Global (COIN) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$1.9k @ 81.0¢
Magic vs. HawksLost
Magic$50 @ 43.0¢
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 30?Lost
Yes$400 @ 88.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on March 16?Lost
Yes$13 @ 0.1¢
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?Lost
Yes$60 @ 59.0¢
Will MrBeast say "Insane" during his next video?Lost
Yes$400 @ 72.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$210 @ 0.3¢
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?Lost
Yes$20 @ 6.0¢
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?Lost
Yes$63 @ 0.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	Sports	Yes	$3.5k	11.7¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$903	0.7¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$193	0.3¢
Spread: Bills (-4.5)	Sports	Ravens	$100	57.0¢
Raiders vs. Jets	Sports	Jets	$100	54.0¢

Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?Sports
Yes$3.5k @ 11.7¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$903 @ 0.7¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$193 @ 0.3¢
Spread: Bills (-4.5)Sports
Ravens$100 @ 57.0¢
Raiders vs. JetsSports
Jets$100 @ 54.0¢