0xdbf7…fbea

Specialization by sphere

• Other183 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (92/183)

  ROI

  +16%

• Politics35 bets

  Hit rate

  49% (17/35)

  ROI

  +34%

• Sports3 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/3)

  ROI

  -100%

• Geopolitics2 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (2/2)

  ROI

  +39%

• Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
  Yes$332 @ 66.4¢
• Hezbollah strike on Israel by December 31?Won
  No$1.6k @ 71.0¢
• Will Israel annex Syrian territory before July?Won
  No$1.6k @ 83.0¢
• Will Harris win Minnesota by 3+ points?Won
  Yes$500 @ 74.4¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?Won
  No$7.4k @ 82.8¢
• Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
  Yes$51 @ 1.4¢
• Will Netanyahu be pardoned in 2025?Lost
  Yes$48 @ 9.5¢
• Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$444 @ 65.5¢
• Will Israel strike 3 countries in November 2025?Lost
  Yes$23 @ 2.0¢
• Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Lost
  Yes$153 @ 12.0¢
• Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$17.5k @ 69.3¢
• Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?Lost
  Yes$5 @ 3.0¢
• Nothing Ever Happens Won
  Yes$269 @ 63.4¢
• Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Won
  No$258 @ 75.5¢
• Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Won
  Yes$1.6k @ 64.3¢
• Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?Won
  Yes$5.0k @ 77.6¢
• Will Kamala Harris be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?Won
  No$28 @ 55.0¢
• Kamala Harris wins a solid red state?Won
  No$1.2k @ 78.0¢
• Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?Lost
  Yes$6 @ 6.8¢
• Jeremy Corbyn elected to parliament in UK election?Won
  Yes$51 @ 48.2¢
• Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025?Lost
  Yes$1.2k @ 59.7¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$135 @ 27.0¢
• Will Biden say "Convicted Felon" during the debate?Won
  Yes$10 @ 63.0¢
• Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 3?Lost
  No$122 @ 48.9¢
• Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?Lost
  Yes$1.9k @ 62.6¢
• Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the debate?Won
  No$17 @ 57.0¢
• Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
  Yes$100 @ 34.0¢
• Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2025?Lost
  Yes$42 @ 10.9¢
• Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by March 31, 2026?Won
  No$1.3k @ 80.5¢
• Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Won
  No$1.7k @ 76.5¢
• France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Won
  No$7.2k @ 76.7¢
• Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?Won
  No$6.6k @ 66.0¢
• Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
  No$993 @ 74.9¢
• Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election?Won
  Yes$1.8k @ 82.3¢
• Kamala and Trump shake hands at inauguration?Lost
  No$102 @ 79.1¢
• Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before May?Lost
  Yes$2 @ 11.0¢
• Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$27.3k @ 62.8¢
• US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?Lost
  Yes$50 @ 25.0¢
• Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?Lost
  Yes$20 @ 6.8¢
• Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?Won
  No$1.4k @ 85.1¢
• Will the US strike Iraq next?Lost
  Yes$3 @ 1.0¢
• Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Won
  Yes$9.7k @ 80.0¢
• Will Israel strike 1 country in 2026?Lost
  Yes$15 @ 2.1¢
• Will Trump say "Hell" 3 or more times during victory rally? Lost
  No$2 @ 12.0¢
• US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
  Yes$12.3k @ 51.0¢
• Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?Won
  No$2.4k @ 67.0¢
• Will Israel strike 2 countries in November 2025?Won
  Yes$103 @ 53.0¢
• Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?Lost
  Yes$66 @ 25.0¢
• Iran x Israel conflict ends before July?Lost
  No$7.4k @ 73.7¢
• Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026??Lost
  Yes$6 @ 17.8¢

Current positions

• Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$6.4k @ 88.0¢
• Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics
  No$3.0k @ 81.0¢
• Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Politics
  Yes$2.1k @ 51.6¢
• Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics
  No$925 @ 43.7¢
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$842 @ 76.0¢
• Another Clacton by-election called in 2026?Politics
  No$386 @ 84.6¢
• Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Politics
  No$265 @ 80.0¢
• Will there be 5 or fewer UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?Politics
  No$222 @ 52.5¢
• Will Blue and White be in the next Israeli government?Politics
  No$220 @ 90.7¢
• Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$176 @ 76.6¢
• Will Blue and White win less than 0.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?Politics
  Yes$131 @ 54.8¢
• Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$118 @ 59.0¢
• Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?Politics
  No$91 @ 14.0¢
• Will the Republican Party win the FL-02 House seat?Politics
  Yes$86 @ 79.0¢
• Will the Democratic Party win the FL-02 House seat?Politics
  No$83 @ 83.0¢
• Will there be four or more UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?Politics
  Yes$76 @ 1.7¢
• Will Trump endorse Likud in the 2026 Israeli Election?Politics
  Yes$74 @ 24.8¢
• Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
  Yes$58 @ 2.9¢
• Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics
  Yes$57 @ 4.2¢
• Israel election: will Likud lose seats?Politics
  Yes$47 @ 71.0¢
• Will Trump not endorse a Party in the 2026 Israeli Election?Politics
  No$42 @ 30.6¢
• Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
  Yes$38 @ 0.5¢
• Will there be 5 or fewer UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?Politics
  Yes$29 @ 15.6¢
• Will Shabana Mahmood be the first to leave the Burnham cabinet?Politics
  Yes$22 @ 6.4¢
• Will there be exactly 8 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?Politics
  Yes$15 @ 9.2¢
• Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
  Yes$9 @ 0.5¢
• Will Trump endorse Yashar in the 2026 Israeli Election?Politics
  Yes$9 @ 1.2¢
• Will Trump endorse Together in the 2026 Israeli Election?Politics
  Yes$5 @ 1.7¢
• Will Reservists and New Economic Party win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?Politics
  Yes$2 @ 28.0¢
• Will Reservists – New Economic Party win 3.25-3.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?Politics
  Yes$1 @ 8.9¢