0xdbf1…86b5

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xdbf16bcffa41bd95faec2640daa2c95ab2bd86b5
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

-24.0pp

ROI

+10%

Win rate

22% @ 46.5¢

Brier

0.195

Resolved

574

Avg size

$6.6k

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	51% (26/51)	-11%	51
Politics	59% (16/27)	+7%	27
Sports	33% (4/12)	+26%	12
Geopolitics	29% (2/7)	-14%	7
Crypto	33% (1/3)	-86%	3
Tech	100% (1/1)	+20%	1
Business	100% (1/1)	+85%	1

Other51 bets
Hit rate
51% (26/51)
ROI
-11%
Politics27 bets
Hit rate
59% (16/27)
ROI
+7%
Sports12 bets
Hit rate
33% (4/12)
ROI
+26%
Geopolitics7 bets
Hit rate
29% (2/7)
ROI
-14%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-86%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+20%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+85%

Track record

50% hit · 51/102

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	Yes	$4.0k	78.0¢	Won
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-04-20?	No	$28.4k	56.0¢	Won
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5	Under	$2.8k	53.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$500.1k	89.3¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$12.9k	17.2¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$51.9k	83.4¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$150.3k	14.8¢	Lost
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May?	Yes	$540	54.0¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?	Yes	$5.5k	63.9¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	Yes	$1.8k	7.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April?	Yes	$79	3.0¢	Lost
Will Elche CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw?	No	$10.9k	73.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$47.6k	75.1¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$7.9k	29.6¢	Lost
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$30.0k	30.0¢	Lost
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$3.2k	6.2¢	Lost
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers	$4.9k	62.0¢	Won
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $850B by June 30?	No	$140	14.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$37.0k	42.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$47.6k	34.1¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$12.4k	46.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	$1.3k	86.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$5.7k	57.0¢	Lost
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$4.2k	8.3¢	Lost
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-17?	No	$989	25.0¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	$495	6.8¢	Lost
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?	No	$830	83.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	Yes	$5.1k	44.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	$40.0k	55.2¢	Lost
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds	$30.5k	61.0¢	Lost
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	No	$18	47.8¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	$6.9k	13.9¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	$21.6k	45.2¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	$17.5k	55.9¢	Lost
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$5.0k	7.3¢	Lost
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	$23.5k	58.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$89.6k	73.1¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$9.5k	7.6¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$4.7k	44.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	Yes	$2.3k	4.5¢	Lost
Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-04-22?	Yes	$10.1k	44.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	Yes	$3.0k	16.2¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	$4.5k	48.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$705	15.2¢	Won
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,650 in May?	Yes	$208	52.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$21.9k	35.0¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	Yes	$575	76.9¢	Lost
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	$1.0k	12.0¢	Lost
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	$3.2k	62.0¢	Won
Spread: RC Celta de Vigo (-1.5)	SC Freiburg	$6.6k	72.0¢	Won

World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?Won
Yes$4.0k @ 78.0¢
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-04-20?Won
No$28.4k @ 56.0¢
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Won
Under$2.8k @ 53.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$500.1k @ 89.3¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$12.9k @ 17.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$51.9k @ 83.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$150.3k @ 14.8¢
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May?Won
Yes$540 @ 54.0¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?Lost
Yes$5.5k @ 63.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?Lost
Yes$1.8k @ 7.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April?Lost
Yes$79 @ 3.0¢
Will Elche CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw?Won
No$10.9k @ 73.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$47.6k @ 75.1¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$7.9k @ 29.6¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$30.0k @ 30.0¢
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$3.2k @ 6.2¢
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles DodgersWon
Los Angeles Dodgers$4.9k @ 62.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $850B by June 30?Lost
No$140 @ 14.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$37.0k @ 42.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$47.6k @ 34.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$12.4k @ 46.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Won
No$1.3k @ 86.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$5.7k @ 57.0¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$4.2k @ 8.3¢
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-17?Won
No$989 @ 25.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?Lost
Yes$495 @ 6.8¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?Won
No$830 @ 83.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?Lost
Yes$5.1k @ 44.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Lost
Yes$40.0k @ 55.2¢
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati RedsLost
Cincinnati Reds$30.5k @ 61.0¢
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?Lost
No$18 @ 47.8¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Lost
Yes$6.9k @ 13.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?Won
No$21.6k @ 45.2¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?Lost
Yes$17.5k @ 55.9¢
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$5.0k @ 7.3¢
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh PiratesLost
Pittsburgh Pirates$23.5k @ 58.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$89.6k @ 73.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$9.5k @ 7.6¢
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$4.7k @ 44.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$2.3k @ 4.5¢
Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-04-22?Lost
Yes$10.1k @ 44.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Lost
Yes$3.0k @ 16.2¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?Lost
Yes$4.5k @ 48.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$705 @ 15.2¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,650 in May?Lost
Yes$208 @ 52.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$21.9k @ 35.0¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?Lost
Yes$575 @ 76.9¢
Will Trump visit China by May 15?Lost
No$1.0k @ 12.0¢
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh PiratesWon
Pittsburgh Pirates$3.2k @ 62.0¢
Spread: RC Celta de Vigo (-1.5)Won
SC Freiburg$6.6k @ 72.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$540	50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$540	50.0¢

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$540 @ 50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$540 @ 50.0¢