← Smart money
0xdbc4…4347
SharpEdge
+3.5pp
ROI
+6%
Win rate
44% @ 40.5¢
Brier
0.176
Resolved
2854
Avg size
$5
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 44% (63/142) | -21% | 142 |
| Other | 54% (60/111) | +17% | 111 |
| Sports | 51% (27/53) | +29% | 53 |
| Geopolitics | 44% (16/36) | +3% | 36 |
| Crypto | 39% (7/18) | +27% | 18 |
| Tech | 43% (3/7) | -53% | 7 |
| Science | 50% (1/2) | +94% | 2 |
| Economy | 100% (2/2) | +41% | 2 |
| Culture | 0% (0/2) | -100% | 2 |
- Politics142 bets
- Hit rate
- 44% (63/142)
- ROI
- -21%
- Other111 bets
- Hit rate
- 54% (60/111)
- ROI
- +17%
- Sports53 bets
- Hit rate
- 51% (27/53)
- ROI
- +29%
- Geopolitics36 bets
- Hit rate
- 44% (16/36)
- ROI
- +3%
- Crypto18 bets
- Hit rate
- 39% (7/18)
- ROI
- +27%
- Tech7 bets
- Hit rate
- 43% (3/7)
- ROI
- -53%
- Science2 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (1/2)
- ROI
- +94%
- Economy2 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (2/2)
- ROI
- +41%
- Culture2 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/2)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
48% hit · 179/373- Yes$30 @ 20.1¢
- Yes$9 @ 72.4¢
- No$17 @ 59.6¢
- No$24 @ 62.5¢
- Yes$10 @ 66.0¢
- No$18 @ 1.0¢
- Yes$20 @ 31.2¢
- No$30 @ 82.2¢
- Yes$36 @ 8.5¢
- No$12 @ 33.4¢
- Yes$7 @ 39.0¢
- No$28 @ 34.1¢
- Yes$10 @ 89.0¢
- No$20 @ 69.9¢
- No$90 @ 81.5¢
- Yes$214 @ 20.9¢
- Yes$14 @ 2.9¢
- No$12 @ 49.9¢
- Yes$3 @ 7.5¢
- Over$12 @ 67.0¢
- Yes$10 @ 5.6¢
- No$18 @ 27.2¢
- Yes$12 @ 84.5¢
- Yes$10 @ 38.0¢
- Yes$12 @ 82.0¢
- Yes$43 @ 74.7¢
- Yes$9 @ 43.0¢
- Yes$152 @ 11.4¢
- Germany$12 @ 40.0¢
- Yes$4 @ 4.4¢
- Yes$91 @ 1.4¢
- Yes$2 @ 5.0¢
- Yes$49 @ 56.3¢
- No$28 @ 13.4¢
- Yes$34 @ 59.5¢
- Yes$10 @ 77.0¢
- Yes$25 @ 54.4¢
- Yes$10 @ 22.0¢
- No$4 @ 17.9¢
- Yes$37 @ 4.7¢
- Under$1 @ 51.0¢
- No$10 @ 1.6¢
- Yes$106 @ 77.1¢
- No$1 @ 66.0¢
- No$12 @ 84.3¢
- Yes$5 @ 4.5¢
- Yes$12 @ 32.0¢
- Yes$3 @ 22.0¢
- Yes$12 @ 77.0¢
- Yes$12 @ 88.0¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Politics | Yes | $224 | 0.9¢ |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Politics | Yes | $42 | 12.3¢ |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | Politics | Yes | $42 | 53.5¢ |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | Geopolitics | Yes | $17 | 24.0¢ |
| Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026? | Tech | No | $12 | 90.0¢ |
| GTA 6 launch postponed again? | Tech | Yes | $11 | 9.5¢ |
| Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31? | Politics | Yes | $10 | 39.8¢ |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Politics | Yes | $9 | 84.4¢ |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | Politics | Yes | $6 | 10.7¢ |
| Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? | Sports | Yes | $6 | 20.0¢ |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? | Politics | Yes | $2 | 21.9¢ |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Politics | Yes | $2 | 26.7¢ |
| Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | Politics | Yes | $1 | 21.0¢ |
- Yes$224 @ 0.9¢
- Yes$42 @ 12.3¢
- Yes$42 @ 53.5¢
- Yes$17 @ 24.0¢
- No$12 @ 90.0¢
- Yes$11 @ 9.5¢
- Yes$10 @ 39.8¢
- Yes$9 @ 84.4¢
- Yes$6 @ 10.7¢
- Yes$6 @ 20.0¢
- Yes$2 @ 21.9¢
- Yes$2 @ 26.7¢
- Yes$1 @ 21.0¢