0xdb45…b5d6

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xdb45465e6ffd7f6ac5e4b13bf0718c438bb3b5d6
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

-1.9pp

ROI

+34%

Win rate

3% @ 5.0¢

Brier

0.025

Resolved

3166

Avg size

$28

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	11% (14/129)	+54%	129
Politics	8% (3/36)	+42%	36
Tech	0% (0/30)	-100%	30
Crypto	0% (0/11)	-100%	11
Geopolitics	0% (0/6)	-100%	6
Business	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Sports	100% (1/1)	+32%	1

Other129 bets
Hit rate
11% (14/129)
ROI
+54%
Politics36 bets
Hit rate
8% (3/36)
ROI
+42%
Tech30 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/30)
ROI
-100%
Crypto11 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/11)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics6 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/6)
ROI
-100%
Business2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+32%

Track record

8% hit · 18/215

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Base launch a token in 2025?	Yes	$15	4.1¢	Lost
Over 35,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?	Yes	$65	0.5¢	Lost
No airdrop in 2025?	Yes	$367	36.7¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Yes	$10	0.1¢	Lost
Monad market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch?	Yes	$119	0.2¢	Lost
Over $50M committed to the RipCars public sale?	Yes	$3	0.3¢	Lost
Will Solana dip to $60 in June?	Yes	$400	40.0¢	Lost
Over $1.6B committed to the Monad public sale?	Yes	$44	1.4¢	Lost
Over $75M committed to the Credible public sale?	Yes	$20	0.3¢	Lost
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	Yes	$2.0k	34.2¢	Won
Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale?	Yes	$2.3k	18.4¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7?	No	$19	0.2¢	Lost
Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale?	Yes	$200	0.1¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Yes	$10	0.1¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Yes	$10	0.1¢	Lost
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in June?	Yes	$100	3.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 27?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Over $80M committed to the RipCars public sale?	Yes	$4	0.2¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Yes	$231	25.3¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$41	6.9¢	Lost
Over $1B committed to the Monad public sale?	Yes	$90	0.1¢	Lost
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 250 (High)?	Yes	$4	5.0¢	Lost
SpaceX IPO: Open Price above IPO Price?	No	$10	2.4¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on November 27?	No	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will White House post 60-79 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 (High)?	Yes	$53	1.2¢	Lost
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June?	Yes	$35	0.9¢	Lost
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?	Yes	$0	0.3¢	Lost
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in January?	Yes	$250	2.5¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?	Yes	$336	6.7¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	$57	3.3¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	$122	12.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX?	Yes	$10	0.1¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $700B and $800B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Yes	$10	0.1¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February?	Yes	$100	1.0¢	Lost
Will White House post 140-159 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Yes	$10	0.1¢	Lost
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January?	Yes	$290	29.0¢	Lost
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by March 31?	No	$10	1.0¢	Lost
Over $800M committed to the Monad public sale?	Yes	$100	0.1¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$5.0k	7.0¢	Lost
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at least $250?	Yes	$35	1.7¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	Yes	$175	17.0¢	Lost
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June?	Yes	$721	18.0¢	Lost
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	$140	7.0¢	Lost
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of January?	No	$50	5.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 27?	No	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?	Yes	$600	60.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost

Will Base launch a token in 2025?Lost
Yes$15 @ 4.1¢
Over 35,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?Lost
Yes$65 @ 0.5¢
No airdrop in 2025?Lost
Yes$367 @ 36.7¢
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 0.1¢
Monad market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch?Lost
Yes$119 @ 0.2¢
Over $50M committed to the RipCars public sale?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.3¢
Will Solana dip to $60 in June?Lost
Yes$400 @ 40.0¢
Over $1.6B committed to the Monad public sale?Lost
Yes$44 @ 1.4¢
Over $75M committed to the Credible public sale?Lost
Yes$20 @ 0.3¢
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?Won
Yes$2.0k @ 34.2¢
Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale?Won
Yes$2.3k @ 18.4¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7?Lost
No$19 @ 0.2¢
Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale?Lost
Yes$200 @ 0.1¢
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 0.1¢
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 0.1¢
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in June?Lost
Yes$100 @ 3.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 27?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Over $80M committed to the RipCars public sale?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.2¢
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?Won
Yes$231 @ 25.3¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$41 @ 6.9¢
Over $1B committed to the Monad public sale?Lost
Yes$90 @ 0.1¢
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 250 (High)?Lost
Yes$4 @ 5.0¢
SpaceX IPO: Open Price above IPO Price?Lost
No$10 @ 2.4¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on November 27?Lost
No$1 @ 0.1¢
Will White House post 60-79 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 (High)?Lost
Yes$53 @ 1.2¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June?Lost
Yes$35 @ 0.9¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in January?Lost
Yes$250 @ 2.5¢
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?Lost
Yes$336 @ 6.7¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Lost
Yes$57 @ 3.3¢
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$122 @ 12.0¢
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX?Lost
Yes$10 @ 0.1¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $700B and $800B at market close on IPO day?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 0.1¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February?Lost
Yes$100 @ 1.0¢
Will White House post 140-159 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 0.1¢
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January?Lost
Yes$290 @ 29.0¢
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by March 31?Lost
No$10 @ 1.0¢
Over $800M committed to the Monad public sale?Lost
Yes$100 @ 0.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$5.0k @ 7.0¢
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at least $250?Lost
Yes$35 @ 1.7¢
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$175 @ 17.0¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June?Lost
Yes$721 @ 18.0¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$140 @ 7.0¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of January?Won
No$50 @ 5.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 27?Lost
No$1 @ 0.1¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?Won
Yes$600 @ 60.0¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on IPO day?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Modi out by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$950	95.0¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$711	6.5¢
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$645	43.0¢
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Economy	Yes	$222	5.0¢
SBF released from custody in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$152	7.1¢

Modi out by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$950 @ 95.0¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Politics
Yes$711 @ 6.5¢
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?Crypto
Yes$645 @ 43.0¢
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy
Yes$222 @ 5.0¢
SBF released from custody in 2026?Politics
Yes$152 @ 7.1¢