0xda47…941c

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xda47ab9c56cdf30aae2ccc344cfdcda0dd8b941c
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+19.7pp

ROI

+28%

Win rate

96% @ 76.5¢

Brier

0.111

Resolved

Avg size

$201

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	100% (9/9)	+37%	9
Other	78% (7/9)	-19%	9
Geopolitics	100% (2/2)	+14%	2
Tech	100% (1/1)	+22%	1
Science	100% (1/1)	+28%	1
Culture	100% (1/1)	+30%	1

Politics9 bets
Hit rate
100% (9/9)
ROI
+37%
Other9 bets
Hit rate
78% (7/9)
ROI
-19%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+14%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+22%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+28%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+30%

Track record

91% hit · 21/23

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	$1.4k	87.0¢	Won
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	No	$202	78.0¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	No	$100	86.0¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	$101	82.0¢	Won
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$101	64.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$100	84.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$100	82.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?	No	$100	88.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026?	No	$100	87.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	$4.9k	68.2¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	$300	58.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$400	85.0¢	Won
No one announced as next James Bond?	Yes	$607	76.6¢	Won
Will Hezbollah disarm by April 30?	No	$200	90.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$200	77.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?	No	$20	52.7¢	Won
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?	No	$100	88.0¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	$500	90.0¢	Won
US x Cuba economic deal by April 30, 2026?	No	$200	87.4¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	No	$100	88.0¢	Won
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$10	26.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	$400	89.0¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	$200	86.7¢	Won

Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Won
No$1.4k @ 87.0¢
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Won
No$202 @ 78.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Won
No$100 @ 86.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Won
No$101 @ 82.0¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$101 @ 64.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$100 @ 84.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$100 @ 82.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?Won
No$100 @ 88.0¢
Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026?Won
No$100 @ 87.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Won
No$4.9k @ 68.2¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Lost
No$300 @ 58.0¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
No$400 @ 85.0¢
No one announced as next James Bond?Won
Yes$607 @ 76.6¢
Will Hezbollah disarm by April 30?Won
No$200 @ 90.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$200 @ 77.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?Won
No$20 @ 52.7¢
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?Won
No$100 @ 88.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?Won
No$500 @ 90.0¢
US x Cuba economic deal by April 30, 2026?Won
No$200 @ 87.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Won
No$100 @ 88.0¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$10 @ 26.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?Won
No$400 @ 89.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?Won
No$200 @ 86.7¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$404	88.0¢
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	Politics	No	$200	98.7¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	—	No	$200	98.4¢
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?	Politics	No	$107	94.5¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$100	95.5¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$404 @ 88.0¢
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?Politics
No$200 @ 98.7¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?—
No$200 @ 98.4¢
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?Politics
No$107 @ 94.5¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?Geopolitics
No$100 @ 95.5¢