0xda45…d95b

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xda4555088f8936311ee1fce810eec3120f31d95b
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+11.0pp

ROI

+9%

Win rate

40% @ 29.2¢

Brier

0.165

Resolved

410

Avg size

$37

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	52% (41/79)	+7%	79
Politics	62% (16/26)	+2%	26
Business	33% (3/9)	+6%	9
Sports	63% (5/8)	+20%	8
Tech	71% (5/7)	+81%	7
Economy	80% (4/5)	+67%	5
Geopolitics	50% (2/4)	+33%	4
Crypto	75% (3/4)	-8%	4
Culture	67% (2/3)	+35%	3
Science	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other79 bets
Hit rate
52% (41/79)
ROI
+7%
Politics26 bets
Hit rate
62% (16/26)
ROI
+2%
Business9 bets
Hit rate
33% (3/9)
ROI
+6%
Sports8 bets
Hit rate
63% (5/8)
ROI
+20%
Tech7 bets
Hit rate
71% (5/7)
ROI
+81%
Economy5 bets
Hit rate
80% (4/5)
ROI
+67%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+33%
Crypto4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
-8%
Culture3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+35%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

55% hit · 81/146

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Muse be available on Meta glasses by October 31, 2026?	No	$8	77.5¢	Won
Will Trump say 'Panama' during the 2025 State of the Union?	No	$14	43.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say 'NATO' during the 2025 State of the Union?	No	$15	24.0¢	Won
Netflix (NFLX) Q3 operating margin 32% to 34%?	Yes	$23	37.0¢	Lost
Trump x Xi talk by Friday?	Yes	$531	6.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs 3DMAX (BO3)	fnatic	$20	20.0¢	Lost
Will AT&T (T) Q3 total revenue be above $32.4B?	No	$44	72.0¢	Won
Will S&P Global (SPGI) Q3 Rating revenues be above $1.3B?	No	$90	47.3¢	Won
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	No	$86	52.0¢	Won
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by October 30, 2026?	No	$13	31.0¢	Won
Will Royal Caribbean (RCL) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$112	31.4¢	Lost
Will Newmont (NEM) Q3 total attributable gold production be above 1,300 koz?	No	$14	35.1¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?	No	$5	6.8¢	Lost
Will Ethereum hit $3000 by Friday?	Yes	$103	3.1¢	Lost
Abbott Laboratories (ABT) Q3 comparable sales growth 10%+?	No	$127	67.2¢	Won
Ethereum above $3,500 on June 28?	Yes	$53	27.4¢	Lost
Will the California redistricting referendum pass by 0-10%?	Yes	$30	6.0¢	Lost
Will Trump reduce tariffs on Mexico or Canada today?	Yes	$14	16.0¢	Lost
Will Texas Instruments (TXN) Q3 Analog revenue be above $4.75B?	Yes	$57	35.0¢	Won
Will Trump end Department of Education in first 100 days?	Yes	$51	12.7¢	Lost
Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 MedTech revenue be above $8.9B?	No	$115	68.0¢	Won
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?	Yes	$214	21.0¢	Lost
Will Republicans lose any "Safe Republican" Senate race?	Yes	$54	27.0¢	Won
Israel strike on Iran on June 20?	No	$120	12.0¢	Lost
Will Procter & Gamble (PG) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$327	57.3¢	Lost
Will Trump say 'DEI' or 'diversity, equity, and inclusion' during the 2025 State of the Union?	No	$9	31.0¢	Lost
Trump Admin held in contempt over press ban by October 31?	No	$124	82.3¢	Won
Will AP call US House control by November 13, 11:59 PM?	Yes	$10	51.0¢	Won
Will Google (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$315	41.7¢	Won
Will Kamala announce VP pick Sunday?	Yes	$10	0.3¢	Lost
Nobel Peace Prize 2026 awarded to an individual?	Yes	$198	47.9¢	Won
Will Hilton (HLT) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$71	16.0¢	Lost
Will S&P Global (SPGI) Q3 Rating revenues be above $1.4B?	No	$18	88.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Putin" during the debate?	Yes	$86	72.0¢	Won
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in October?	Yes	$12	52.0¢	Won
Will Iran release a Trump voicemail about the Strait of Hormuz by October 31?	No	$16	82.0¢	Won
Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 14, 2026?	No	$18	88.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026?	No	$174	58.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin above $65,000 on June 28?	Yes	$35	8.0¢	Lost
Will either Cuomo or Mamdani concede by November 4, 2025?	Yes	$38	67.0¢	Won
Will the Knesset elect a new Speaker by November 6?	No	$577	88.1¢	Won
Will Donald Trump say "Crypto" 10+ times during Crypto Summit on Friday?	No	$31	87.0¢	Won
Will Lionel Messi finish 5th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	$135	32.0¢	Lost
Debate Bingo - 2	Yes	$3	55.0¢	Won
Will Newmont (NEM) Q3 total attributable gold production be above 1,350 koz?	No	$16	80.0¢	Won
Pump.fun market cap (FDV) $6-8B one day after launch?	Yes	$199	39.1¢	Lost
Will Lionel Messi attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	$248	46.2¢	Won
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3)	3DMAX	$39	31.2¢	Won
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3)	Liquid	$50	25.0¢	Lost
1win FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	$186	73.0¢	Won

Will Muse be available on Meta glasses by October 31, 2026?Won
No$8 @ 77.5¢
Will Trump say 'Panama' during the 2025 State of the Union?Lost
No$14 @ 43.0¢
Will Trump say 'NATO' during the 2025 State of the Union?Won
No$15 @ 24.0¢
Netflix (NFLX) Q3 operating margin 32% to 34%?Lost
Yes$23 @ 37.0¢
Trump x Xi talk by Friday?Lost
Yes$531 @ 6.0¢
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs 3DMAX (BO3)Lost
fnatic$20 @ 20.0¢
Will AT&T (T) Q3 total revenue be above $32.4B?Won
No$44 @ 72.0¢
Will S&P Global (SPGI) Q3 Rating revenues be above $1.3B?Won
No$90 @ 47.3¢
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?Won
No$86 @ 52.0¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by October 30, 2026?Won
No$13 @ 31.0¢
Will Royal Caribbean (RCL) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$112 @ 31.4¢
Will Newmont (NEM) Q3 total attributable gold production be above 1,300 koz?Lost
No$14 @ 35.1¢
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?Lost
No$5 @ 6.8¢
Will Ethereum hit $3000 by Friday?Lost
Yes$103 @ 3.1¢
Abbott Laboratories (ABT) Q3 comparable sales growth 10%+?Won
No$127 @ 67.2¢
Ethereum above $3,500 on June 28?Lost
Yes$53 @ 27.4¢
Will the California redistricting referendum pass by 0-10%?Lost
Yes$30 @ 6.0¢
Will Trump reduce tariffs on Mexico or Canada today?Lost
Yes$14 @ 16.0¢
Will Texas Instruments (TXN) Q3 Analog revenue be above $4.75B?Won
Yes$57 @ 35.0¢
Will Trump end Department of Education in first 100 days?Lost
Yes$51 @ 12.7¢
Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 MedTech revenue be above $8.9B?Won
No$115 @ 68.0¢
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?Lost
Yes$214 @ 21.0¢
Will Republicans lose any "Safe Republican" Senate race?Won
Yes$54 @ 27.0¢
Israel strike on Iran on June 20?Lost
No$120 @ 12.0¢
Will Procter & Gamble (PG) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$327 @ 57.3¢
Will Trump say 'DEI' or 'diversity, equity, and inclusion' during the 2025 State of the Union?Lost
No$9 @ 31.0¢
Trump Admin held in contempt over press ban by October 31?Won
No$124 @ 82.3¢
Will AP call US House control by November 13, 11:59 PM?Won
Yes$10 @ 51.0¢
Will Google (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings?Won
No$315 @ 41.7¢
Will Kamala announce VP pick Sunday?Lost
Yes$10 @ 0.3¢
Nobel Peace Prize 2026 awarded to an individual?Won
Yes$198 @ 47.9¢
Will Hilton (HLT) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$71 @ 16.0¢
Will S&P Global (SPGI) Q3 Rating revenues be above $1.4B?Won
No$18 @ 88.0¢
Will Trump say "Putin" during the debate?Won
Yes$86 @ 72.0¢
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in October?Won
Yes$12 @ 52.0¢
Will Iran release a Trump voicemail about the Strait of Hormuz by October 31?Won
No$16 @ 82.0¢
Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 14, 2026?Lost
No$18 @ 88.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Ken Paxton by October 31, 2026?Lost
No$174 @ 58.0¢
Bitcoin above $65,000 on June 28?Lost
Yes$35 @ 8.0¢
Will either Cuomo or Mamdani concede by November 4, 2025?Won
Yes$38 @ 67.0¢
Will the Knesset elect a new Speaker by November 6?Won
No$577 @ 88.1¢
Will Donald Trump say "Crypto" 10+ times during Crypto Summit on Friday?Won
No$31 @ 87.0¢
Will Lionel Messi finish 5th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Lost
No$135 @ 32.0¢
Debate Bingo - 2Won
Yes$3 @ 55.0¢
Will Newmont (NEM) Q3 total attributable gold production be above 1,350 koz?Won
No$16 @ 80.0¢
Pump.fun market cap (FDV) $6-8B one day after launch?Lost
Yes$199 @ 39.1¢
Will Lionel Messi attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?Won
No$248 @ 46.2¢
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3)Won
3DMAX$39 @ 31.2¢
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3)Lost
Liquid$50 @ 25.0¢
1win FDV above $100M one day after launch?Won
No$186 @ 73.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Jumper launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$481	74.3¢
Will Trump veto a bill by February 1, 2027?	Politics	No	$317	25.1¢
Will John Thune be the next US Senate Minority Leader?	Politics	Yes	$275	69.2¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 16, 2026?	Business	No	$254	74.8¢
Will Marvell Q3 Data Center revenue be above $2.9B?	Tech	No	$232	83.0¢
Will Marvell Q3 Data Center revenue be above $2.6B?	Tech	Yes	$211	64.2¢
Will Gianni Infantino be the next President of FIFA?	Politics	Yes	$183	75.1¢
Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$180	72.7¢
Will Nathan Fielder be nominated for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	No	$172	40.0¢
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$168	60.0¢
Will Tesla deliver less than 400000 vehicles in Q4 2026	Tech	No	$157	81.2¢
Will "Wild Horse Nine" be nominated for Best Costume Design at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	No	$127	63.5¢
Will Katie Zacharia be officially given a new role in the Trump administration by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$97	35.9¢
Will Intuit Q1 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?	Tech	No	$93	39.2¢
Will "GTA VI" have a Metascore of at least 96?	Culture	No	$89	23.2¢
Will the Liberals (L) be in the next Swedish government?	Politics	No	$84	22.0¢
Will "Hoppers" be nominated for Best Animated Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	Yes	$78	50.2¢
Will Intuit Q1 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.5B?	Tech	No	$76	70.0¢
Will Marvell Q3 Data Center revenue be above $2.5B?	Tech	Yes	$73	78.2¢
Will Japan's core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$58	13.4¢
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk by November 30?	Politics	Yes	$43	55.0¢
Will Snowflake Q3 Product revenue be above $1.74B?	Tech	No	$27	68.5¢
Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$24	16.0¢
Will Marvell Q3 Data Center revenue be above $2.8B?	Tech	No	$21	89.0¢
Will Marvell Q3 Data Center revenue be above $2.7B?	Tech	Yes	$21	35.0¢
Will The Odyssey win Best Costume Design at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	No	$20	20.0¢
2026 Senate or Governor race goes to full recount?	Politics	No	$16	40.5¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	Politics	Yes	$6	22.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) Q3 Data Center revenue be above $110B?	Tech	No	$6	80.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) Q3 Data Center revenue be above $105B?	Tech	Yes	$5	27.0¢

Will Jumper launch a token by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$481 @ 74.3¢
Will Trump veto a bill by February 1, 2027?Politics
No$317 @ 25.1¢
Will John Thune be the next US Senate Minority Leader?Politics
Yes$275 @ 69.2¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 16, 2026?Business
No$254 @ 74.8¢
Will Marvell Q3 Data Center revenue be above $2.9B?Tech
No$232 @ 83.0¢
Will Marvell Q3 Data Center revenue be above $2.6B?Tech
Yes$211 @ 64.2¢
Will Gianni Infantino be the next President of FIFA?Politics
Yes$183 @ 75.1¢
Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$180 @ 72.7¢
Will Nathan Fielder be nominated for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
No$172 @ 40.0¢
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?Geopolitics
No$168 @ 60.0¢
Will Tesla deliver less than 400000 vehicles in Q4 2026Tech
No$157 @ 81.2¢
Will "Wild Horse Nine" be nominated for Best Costume Design at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
No$127 @ 63.5¢
Will Katie Zacharia be officially given a new role in the Trump administration by December 31?Politics
Yes$97 @ 35.9¢
Will Intuit Q1 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?Tech
No$93 @ 39.2¢
Will "GTA VI" have a Metascore of at least 96?Culture
No$89 @ 23.2¢
Will the Liberals (L) be in the next Swedish government?Politics
No$84 @ 22.0¢
Will "Hoppers" be nominated for Best Animated Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
Yes$78 @ 50.2¢
Will Intuit Q1 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.5B?Tech
No$76 @ 70.0¢
Will Marvell Q3 Data Center revenue be above $2.5B?Tech
Yes$73 @ 78.2¢
Will Japan's core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026?Economy
Yes$58 @ 13.4¢
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk by November 30?Politics
Yes$43 @ 55.0¢
Will Snowflake Q3 Product revenue be above $1.74B?Tech
No$27 @ 68.5¢
Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?Crypto
Yes$24 @ 16.0¢
Will Marvell Q3 Data Center revenue be above $2.8B?Tech
No$21 @ 89.0¢
Will Marvell Q3 Data Center revenue be above $2.7B?Tech
Yes$21 @ 35.0¢
Will The Odyssey win Best Costume Design at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
No$20 @ 20.0¢
2026 Senate or Governor race goes to full recount?Politics
No$16 @ 40.5¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?Politics
Yes$6 @ 22.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) Q3 Data Center revenue be above $110B?Tech
No$6 @ 80.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) Q3 Data Center revenue be above $105B?Tech
Yes$5 @ 27.0¢