0xda08…0e21

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xda08e030b44b0f51f2154b853a8da60704d30e21
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+10.1pp

ROI

+53%

Win rate

32% @ 21.5¢

Brier

0.194

Resolved

1014

Avg size

$12

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	30% (74/245)	+47%	245
Politics	21% (14/66)	+60%	66
Geopolitics	8% (1/13)	-90%	13
Sports	50% (3/6)	+150%	6
Tech	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Culture	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Crypto	50% (1/2)	+302%	2

Other245 bets
Hit rate
30% (74/245)
ROI
+47%
Politics66 bets
Hit rate
21% (14/66)
ROI
+60%
Geopolitics13 bets
Hit rate
8% (1/13)
ROI
-90%
Sports6 bets
Hit rate
50% (3/6)
ROI
+150%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Culture3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+302%

Track record

28% hit · 93/338

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Trump renames AI by September 30?	Yes	$96	24.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Iran" during meetings with Chancellor Merz?	No	$5	11.3¢	Lost
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?	Yes	$4	1.0¢	Lost
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	7.7¢	Lost
Will Melania's remarks not air?	Yes	$14	4.9¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 23, 2026?	No	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$44	30.0¢	Lost
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	No	$221	44.1¢	Won
Will "iPad" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?	No	$38	15.5¢	Won
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	No	$78	39.0¢	Lost
Will anyone say "iPhone" 100+ times during Apple launch event on September 9?	No	$1	13.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Charlie" or "Kirk" 5+ times during TPUSA events on April 17?	No	$7	14.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$57	12.7¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Tax" 10+ times during No Tax on Tips Roundtable?	No	$6	6.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Mine" during Fox interview on Wednesday?	Yes	$8	8.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?	Yes	$1	1.1¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?	Yes	$8	2.5¢	Lost
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)	Makhachev	$4	74.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Hell" 8+ times during Memphis Roundtable?	Yes	$0	3.8¢	Lost
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Yes	$3	5.8¢	Lost
Will Clavicular be banned from Kick by May 31?	Yes	$2	2.2¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	No	$32	9.5¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$64	21.3¢	Lost
Will Bernie and Mamdani's remarks not air?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will Bernie or Mamdani say "One Percent" 2+ times during NYC rally?	No	$3	3.0¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?	Yes	$30	2.2¢	Lost
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on April 16?	Yes	$27	17.7¢	Lost
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?	No	$5	81.0¢	Won
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?	Yes	$19	12.7¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting?	No	$4	3.5¢	Lost
Will Apple release a new version of the Apple TV by December 31?	No	$2	48.0¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	Yes	$34	17.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Cheat" or "Cheater" or "Cheated" or "Cheating" 10+ times at the NRCC Dinner on March 25?	No	$30	77.2¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Eight War" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?	Yes	$1	4.0¢	Lost
Will Figure's humanoid robot push at least 12000 packages during the official Figure livestream before the 8:00:00 time mark?	Yes	$0	1.4¢	Won
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$7	3.6¢	Lost
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	$4	3.9¢	Lost
Blast Open Rotterdam 2026: Will a player break something during a game?	Yes	$3	0.3¢	Lost
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?	No	$2	48.0¢	Won
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	No	$1	2.0¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$51	10.1¢	Lost
Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 31?	Yes	$128	64.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$7	7.0¢	Lost
US x China tariff agreement by November 10?	No	$5	14.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$37	18.5¢	Lost
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 15?	Yes	$3	6.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during NCAA National Champions remarks on April 21?	Yes	$2	8.0¢	Lost
Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in March?	Yes	$30	14.4¢	Won
Will "Europe" be said 10+ times during Eurovision?	No	$8	6.2¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$20	20.4¢	Lost

Trump renames AI by September 30?Won
Yes$96 @ 24.0¢
Will Trump say "Iran" during meetings with Chancellor Merz?Lost
No$5 @ 11.3¢
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 1.0¢
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 7.7¢
Will Melania's remarks not air?Lost
Yes$14 @ 4.9¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 23, 2026?Lost
No$0 @ 0.2¢
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$44 @ 30.0¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Won
No$221 @ 44.1¢
Will "iPad" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?Won
No$38 @ 15.5¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Lost
No$78 @ 39.0¢
Will anyone say "iPhone" 100+ times during Apple launch event on September 9?Lost
No$1 @ 13.0¢
Will Trump say "Charlie" or "Kirk" 5+ times during TPUSA events on April 17?Won
No$7 @ 14.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$57 @ 12.7¢
Will Trump say "Tax" 10+ times during No Tax on Tips Roundtable?Lost
No$6 @ 6.0¢
Will Trump say "Mine" during Fox interview on Wednesday?Lost
Yes$8 @ 8.0¢
Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 2.5¢
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)Won
Makhachev$4 @ 74.0¢
Will Trump say "Hell" 8+ times during Memphis Roundtable?Lost
Yes$0 @ 3.8¢
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?Lost
Yes$3 @ 5.8¢
Will Clavicular be banned from Kick by May 31?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.2¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$32 @ 9.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$64 @ 21.3¢
Will Bernie and Mamdani's remarks not air?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Will Bernie or Mamdani say "One Percent" 2+ times during NYC rally?Lost
No$3 @ 3.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?Lost
Yes$30 @ 2.2¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on April 16?Lost
Yes$27 @ 17.7¢
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?Won
No$5 @ 81.0¢
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?Lost
Yes$19 @ 12.7¢
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting?Lost
No$4 @ 3.5¢
Will Apple release a new version of the Apple TV by December 31?Won
No$2 @ 48.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Lost
Yes$34 @ 17.0¢
Will Trump say "Cheat" or "Cheater" or "Cheated" or "Cheating" 10+ times at the NRCC Dinner on March 25?Lost
No$30 @ 77.2¢
Will Trump say "Eight War" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?Lost
Yes$1 @ 4.0¢
Will Figure's humanoid robot push at least 12000 packages during the official Figure livestream before the 8:00:00 time mark?Won
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$7 @ 3.6¢
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Lost
Yes$4 @ 3.9¢
Blast Open Rotterdam 2026: Will a player break something during a game? Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.3¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?Won
No$2 @ 48.0¢
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 2.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$51 @ 10.1¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 31?Won
Yes$128 @ 64.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$7 @ 7.0¢
US x China tariff agreement by November 10?Lost
No$5 @ 14.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$37 @ 18.5¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 15?Lost
Yes$3 @ 6.0¢
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during NCAA National Champions remarks on April 21?Lost
Yes$2 @ 8.0¢
Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in March?Won
Yes$30 @ 14.4¢
Will "Europe" be said 10+ times during Eurovision?Lost
No$8 @ 6.2¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$20 @ 20.4¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Trump renames AI by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$96	24.0¢
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between September 15 and September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$60	20.0¢
Trump renames New Mexico to New America by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$20	4.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$15	28.0¢
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$13	27.0¢
KAA Gent vs. Hibernian FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	—	Under	$13	0.7¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$5	5.3¢
Clavicular and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez confirm relationship in 2026?	Culture	Yes	$2	2.0¢

Trump renames AI by September 30?Politics
Yes$96 @ 24.0¢
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between September 15 and September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$60 @ 20.0¢
Trump renames New Mexico to New America by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$20 @ 4.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$15 @ 28.0¢
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026?Politics
Yes$13 @ 27.0¢
KAA Gent vs. Hibernian FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners—
Under$13 @ 0.7¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$5 @ 5.3¢
Clavicular and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez confirm relationship in 2026?Culture
Yes$2 @ 2.0¢