← Smart money
0xd96a…eb9b
SharpEdge
+22.1pp
ROI
+36%
Win rate
72% @ 49.7¢
Brier
0.123
Resolved
46
Avg size
$195
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 86% (6/7) | +83% | 7 |
| Tech | 60% (3/5) | -28% | 5 |
| Sports | 50% (1/2) | -40% | 2 |
| Politics | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
- Other7 bets
- Hit rate
- 86% (6/7)
- ROI
- +83%
- Tech5 bets
- Hit rate
- 60% (3/5)
- ROI
- -28%
- Sports2 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (1/2)
- ROI
- -40%
- Politics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
67% hit · 10/15| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2027? | No | $2.5k | 20.0¢ | Lost |
| Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by March 31, 2027? | No | $260 | 26.0¢ | Lost |
| Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01? | Yes | $509 | 43.0¢ | Lost |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | $11 | 0.8¢ | Lost |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? | No | $1.8k | 83.5¢ | Won |
| Football.Fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Yes | $286 | 44.2¢ | Won |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? | No | $708 | 72.0¢ | Won |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | Yes | $103 | 6.0¢ | Won |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | No | $1.5k | 72.0¢ | Won |
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | $1.2k | 12.7¢ | Lost |
| Fogo FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | $722 | 68.8¢ | Won |
| UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) | Justin Gaethje | $1.0k | 75.4¢ | Won |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | No | $509 | 53.0¢ | Won |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | No | $87 | 19.0¢ | Won |
| Stable FDV above $4B one day after launch? | No | $491 | 60.5¢ | Won |
- No$2.5k @ 20.0¢
- No$260 @ 26.0¢
- Yes$509 @ 43.0¢
- Yes$11 @ 0.8¢
- No$1.8k @ 83.5¢
- Yes$286 @ 44.2¢
- No$708 @ 72.0¢
- Yes$103 @ 6.0¢
- No$1.5k @ 72.0¢
- Yes$1.2k @ 12.7¢
- No$722 @ 68.8¢
- Justin Gaethje$1.0k @ 75.4¢
- No$509 @ 53.0¢
- No$87 @ 19.0¢
- No$491 @ 60.5¢
Recent trades
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Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2027? | Tech | No | $2.5k | 20.0¢ |
| Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01? | — | Yes | $500 | 43.0¢ |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | Politics | Yes | $397 | 17.3¢ |
| Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by March 31, 2027? | Tech | No | $260 | 26.0¢ |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | Politics | Yes | $10 | 0.8¢ |
- No$2.5k @ 20.0¢
- Yes$500 @ 43.0¢
- Yes$397 @ 17.3¢
- No$260 @ 26.0¢
- Yes$10 @ 0.8¢