0xd883…4fd7

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xd883267f7965f34b8c8a0cdf5bc5385302714fd7
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+3.9pp

ROI

+3%

Win rate

80% @ 76.2¢

Brier

0.138

Resolved

1214

Avg size

$24

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	78% (98/125)	+2%	125
Politics	74% (32/43)	+1%	43
Geopolitics	100% (12/12)	+33%	12
Economy	40% (2/5)	-78%	5
Crypto	0% (0/4)	-100%	4
Tech	100% (2/2)	+47%	2
Science	100% (2/2)	+15%	2
Culture	100% (2/2)	+29%	2

Other125 bets
Hit rate
78% (98/125)
ROI
+2%
Politics43 bets
Hit rate
74% (32/43)
ROI
+1%
Geopolitics12 bets
Hit rate
100% (12/12)
ROI
+33%
Economy5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
-78%
Crypto4 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/4)
ROI
-100%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+47%
Science2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+15%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+29%

Track record

77% hit · 150/195

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	No	$68	68.0¢	Won
James Comey charges dropped by May 31?	No	$340	85.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	No	$26	66.0¢	Won
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	$19	63.0¢	Lost
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June?	No	$206	85.9¢	Won
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June?	No	$1.0k	89.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $680b and $690b on March 31?	No	$44	87.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	$390	86.6¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?	No	$35	88.3¢	Won
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	No	$350	87.5¢	Won
Will the Rolex Index hit $11,950 (LOW) by April 30?	Yes	$0	0.3¢	Lost
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	No	$159	79.5¢	Won
Karoline Leavitt out by March 31?	No	$108	89.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	No	$87	72.8¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?	No	$218	87.2¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$300	75.0¢	Lost
Will the Rolex Index hit $12,050 (LOW) by April 30?	No	$11	55.5¢	Lost
Will the Rolex Index hit $12,450 (HIGH) by April 30?	No	$18	89.8¢	Lost
Will 250 to 279 tornadoes occur in the United States in June 2026?	No	$3	50.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	No	$59	64.5¢	Won
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $690b and $700b on March 31?	No	$102	85.3¢	Won
Peter Mandelson charged by March 31?	No	$11	73.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	No	$71	71.0¢	Won
No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by June 30?	No	$53	89.0¢	Won
Will USD fall to 1.4M Iranian rials by April 30?	No	$50	62.8¢	Won
Will USD fall to 16,000 Indonesian rupiah by June 30?	No	$12	83.7¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	No	$178	89.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	No	$166	79.1¢	Won
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.00 in April?	No	$16	82.0¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	Yes	$120	75.0¢	Won
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June?	No	$18	89.1¢	Won
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	$958	83.3¢	Won
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?	No	$18	88.0¢	Won
World Cup: Largest Margin of Victory Record Broken?	No	$119	88.8¢	Won
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30?	No	$41	82.0¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?	No	$464	77.3¢	Won
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.20 (LOW) by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$0	0.8¢	Lost
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?	No	$115	82.0¢	Won
Will Bill or Hillary publicly testify before congress by Feb 28?	No	$443	86.9¢	Won
Will the Rolex Index hit $11,850 (LOW) by April 30?	No	$9	64.4¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$438	71.8¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	No	$163	81.5¢	Won
Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by March 31?	No	$85	87.4¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$164	82.0¢	Won
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	$123	88.0¢	Won
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?	No	$72	72.0¢	Lost
Kristi Noem and Corey Lewandowski confirm relationship by March 31?	No	$18	81.9¢	Won
Will the Patek Index hit $103,000 (LOW) by April 30?	No	$28	55.8¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	No	$165	82.3¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	No	$306	76.5¢	Won

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Won
No$68 @ 68.0¢
James Comey charges dropped by May 31?Won
No$340 @ 85.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Won
No$26 @ 66.0¢
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Lost
No$19 @ 63.0¢
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June?Won
No$206 @ 85.9¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June?Won
No$1.0k @ 89.0¢
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $680b and $690b on March 31?Won
No$44 @ 87.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Won
No$390 @ 86.6¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?Won
No$35 @ 88.3¢
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Won
No$350 @ 87.5¢
Will the Rolex Index hit $11,950 (LOW) by April 30?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?Won
No$159 @ 79.5¢
Karoline Leavitt out by March 31?Won
No$108 @ 89.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?Won
No$87 @ 72.8¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?Won
No$218 @ 87.2¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$300 @ 75.0¢
Will the Rolex Index hit $12,050 (LOW) by April 30?Lost
No$11 @ 55.5¢
Will the Rolex Index hit $12,450 (HIGH) by April 30?Lost
No$18 @ 89.8¢
Will 250 to 279 tornadoes occur in the United States in June 2026?Won
No$3 @ 50.0¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Won
No$59 @ 64.5¢
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $690b and $700b on March 31?Won
No$102 @ 85.3¢
Peter Mandelson charged by March 31?Won
No$11 @ 73.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?Won
No$71 @ 71.0¢
No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by June 30?Won
No$53 @ 89.0¢
Will USD fall to 1.4M Iranian rials by April 30?Won
No$50 @ 62.8¢
Will USD fall to 16,000 Indonesian rupiah by June 30?Won
No$12 @ 83.7¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Won
No$178 @ 89.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?Won
No$166 @ 79.1¢
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.00 in April?Won
No$16 @ 82.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?Won
Yes$120 @ 75.0¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June?Won
No$18 @ 89.1¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Won
No$958 @ 83.3¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?Won
No$18 @ 88.0¢
World Cup: Largest Margin of Victory Record Broken?Won
No$119 @ 88.8¢
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30?Won
No$41 @ 82.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?Won
No$464 @ 77.3¢
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.20 (LOW) by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.8¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?Won
No$115 @ 82.0¢
Will Bill or Hillary publicly testify before congress by Feb 28?Won
No$443 @ 86.9¢
Will the Rolex Index hit $11,850 (LOW) by April 30?Won
No$9 @ 64.4¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$438 @ 71.8¢
US forces enter Iran by March 14?Won
No$163 @ 81.5¢
Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by March 31?Won
No$85 @ 87.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$164 @ 82.0¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?Won
No$123 @ 88.0¢
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?Lost
No$72 @ 72.0¢
Kristi Noem and Corey Lewandowski confirm relationship by March 31?Won
No$18 @ 81.9¢
Will the Patek Index hit $103,000 (LOW) by April 30?Lost
No$28 @ 55.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?Won
No$165 @ 82.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Won
No$306 @ 76.5¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Elon Bull Run Combo	Tech	No	$943	86.5¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Politics	No	$827	82.7¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	Other	No	$826	85.5¢
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?	Politics	No	$790	79.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Politics	No	$770	80.9¢
Will XRP reach $3.80 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$757	87.4¢
Will USD/JPY hit 170 (High) in 2026?	Other	No	$713	57.9¢
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Science	No	$658	74.5¢
Will Solana reach $400 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$655	94.5¢
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?	Science	No	$608	90.7¢
New pandemic in 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$595	85.0¢
Will USD/JPY hit 175 (High) in 2026?	Other	No	$594	72.9¢
Will Total Crypto Market Cap hit 4T in 2026?	Crypto	No	$584	94.8¢
Ebola pandemic in 2026?	Science	No	$568	91.6¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Politics	No	$542	74.0¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December?	Other	No	$510	74.4¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$503	79.8¢
Will Solana reach $280 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$491	91.6¢
Will Solana reach $260 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$489	93.2¢
Will USD/CAD hit 1.70 (High) in 2026?	Politics	No	$473	89.2¢
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$467	87.2¢
Will XRP reach $3.40 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$405	85.6¢
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$385	94.8¢
Will Solana reach $300 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$384	91.4¢
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$384	93.4¢
Will XRP reach $4.00 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$378	89.8¢
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	Politics	No	$378	91.0¢
Will Pump.fun reach $0.0090 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$369	83.9¢
Kim Kardashian and Lewis Hamilton engaged in 2026?	Culture	No	$365	93.5¢
Quantum breaks Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$345	83.6¢

Elon Bull Run ComboTech
No$943 @ 86.5¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics
No$827 @ 82.7¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?Other
No$826 @ 85.5¢
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?Politics
No$790 @ 79.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Politics
No$770 @ 80.9¢
Will XRP reach $3.80 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$757 @ 87.4¢
Will USD/JPY hit 170 (High) in 2026?Other
No$713 @ 57.9¢
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Science
No$658 @ 74.5¢
Will Solana reach $400 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$655 @ 94.5¢
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026? Science
No$608 @ 90.7¢
New pandemic in 2026?Geopolitics
No$595 @ 85.0¢
Will USD/JPY hit 175 (High) in 2026?Other
No$594 @ 72.9¢
Will Total Crypto Market Cap hit 4T in 2026?Crypto
No$584 @ 94.8¢
Ebola pandemic in 2026?Science
No$568 @ 91.6¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Politics
No$542 @ 74.0¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December?Other
No$510 @ 74.4¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on December 31, 2026?Tech
No$503 @ 79.8¢
Will Solana reach $280 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$491 @ 91.6¢
Will Solana reach $260 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$489 @ 93.2¢
Will USD/CAD hit 1.70 (High) in 2026?Politics
No$473 @ 89.2¢
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$467 @ 87.2¢
Will XRP reach $3.40 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$405 @ 85.6¢
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$385 @ 94.8¢
Will Solana reach $300 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$384 @ 91.4¢
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$384 @ 93.4¢
Will XRP reach $4.00 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$378 @ 89.8¢
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?Politics
No$378 @ 91.0¢
Will Pump.fun reach $0.0090 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$369 @ 83.9¢
Kim Kardashian and Lewis Hamilton engaged in 2026?Culture
No$365 @ 93.5¢
Quantum breaks Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$345 @ 83.6¢