0xd872…dfae

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xd8726283468c86fdb22755db72774a6c58fedfae
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+14.9pp

ROI

+18%

Win rate

63% @ 48.5¢

Brier

0.209

Resolved

Avg size

$89

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Tech	58% (19/33)	-25%	33
Other	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Tech33 bets
Hit rate
58% (19/33)
ROI
-25%
Other1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

56% hit · 19/34

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	Yes	$31	66.0¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	$3.5k	71.5¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1400 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	$3.4k	87.7¢	Won
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1420 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	$4.0k	82.1¢	Lost
Next DeepSeek Flash released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$304	80.7¢	Won
Next DeepSeek Flash released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	$950	91.5¢	Won
Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by October 16, 2026?	No	$19	95.0¢	Won
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026?	No	$251	96.8¢	Won
Will the next GPT Sol model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	$249	38.9¢	Lost
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	No	$545	44.4¢	Won
Meta's Watermelon released by October 15, 2026?	No	$238	60.8¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 27, 2026?	Yes	$514	64.0¢	Won
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	Yes	$460	86.0¢	Won
Will the next GPT Sol model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	$307	25.7¢	Lost
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	Yes	$329	39.7¢	Won
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026?	No	$43	86.0¢	Won
Will the next GPT Sol model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	$59	6.0¢	Lost
Will Moonshot be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$73	15.5¢	Lost
Will the next GPT Sol model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	$362	72.3¢	Lost
Will the next OpenAI GPT Luna model be released on or prior to September 22, 2026?	No	$501	29.7¢	Lost
Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	$14	12.0¢	Lost
Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) released by September 30, 2026?	No	$84	81.3¢	Won
Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$623	86.0¢	Won
Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by September 22, 2026?	No	$218	30.4¢	Lost
Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	No	$43	40.8¢	Won
Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$85	88.8¢	Won
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.7k	79.8¢	Won
Will Alibaba be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	No	$67	35.3¢	Lost
Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$200	36.9¢	Won
Will the next GPT Luna model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1430 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	$81	63.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$478	44.5¢	Won
Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by September 30, 2026?	No	$610	76.7¢	Won
Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	$291	38.3¢	Won
Meta's Watermelon released by October 31, 2026?	No	$121	23.8¢	Lost

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?Lost
Yes$31 @ 66.0¢
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?Lost
Yes$3.5k @ 71.5¢
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1400 by June 30, 2027?Won
Yes$3.4k @ 87.7¢
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1420 by June 30, 2027?Lost
Yes$4.0k @ 82.1¢
Next DeepSeek Flash released by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$304 @ 80.7¢
Next DeepSeek Flash released by November 30, 2026?Won
Yes$950 @ 91.5¢
Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by October 16, 2026?Won
No$19 @ 95.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026?Won
No$251 @ 96.8¢
Will the next GPT Sol model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?Lost
Yes$249 @ 38.9¢
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?Won
No$545 @ 44.4¢
Meta's Watermelon released by October 15, 2026?Lost
No$238 @ 60.8¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 27, 2026?Won
Yes$514 @ 64.0¢
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?Won
Yes$460 @ 86.0¢
Will the next GPT Sol model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?Lost
Yes$307 @ 25.7¢
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Won
Yes$329 @ 39.7¢
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026?Won
No$43 @ 86.0¢
Will the next GPT Sol model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?Lost
Yes$59 @ 6.0¢
Will Moonshot be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$73 @ 15.5¢
Will the next GPT Sol model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?Lost
Yes$362 @ 72.3¢
Will the next OpenAI GPT Luna model be released on or prior to September 22, 2026?Lost
No$501 @ 29.7¢
Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?Lost
Yes$14 @ 12.0¢
Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) released by September 30, 2026?Won
No$84 @ 81.3¢
Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$623 @ 86.0¢
Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by September 22, 2026?Lost
No$218 @ 30.4¢
Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?Won
No$43 @ 40.8¢
Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$85 @ 88.8¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$1.7k @ 79.8¢
Will Alibaba be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?Lost
No$67 @ 35.3¢
Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?Won
Yes$200 @ 36.9¢
Will the next GPT Luna model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1430 by June 30, 2027?Lost
Yes$81 @ 63.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?Won
Yes$478 @ 44.5¢
Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by September 30, 2026?Won
No$610 @ 76.7¢
Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?Won
Yes$291 @ 38.3¢
Meta's Watermelon released by October 31, 2026?Lost
No$121 @ 23.8¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$3.5k	74.9¢
Next DeepSeek Pro released by October 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$3.4k	77.5¢
Next DeepSeek Pro released by November 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$1.7k	61.8¢
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$815	36.7¢
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$651	68.1¢
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$227	45.0¢
Next Qwen Flash (3.9+) released by October 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$213	64.3¢
Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$187	68.0¢
Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) released by October 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$158	65.6¢
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$58	19.0¢
Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$29	65.0¢

Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?Tech
Yes$3.5k @ 74.9¢
Next DeepSeek Pro released by October 31, 2026?Tech
No$3.4k @ 77.5¢
Next DeepSeek Pro released by November 30, 2026?Tech
No$1.7k @ 61.8¢
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?Tech
Yes$815 @ 36.7¢
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Geopolitics
No$651 @ 68.1¢
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Tech
Yes$227 @ 45.0¢
Next Qwen Flash (3.9+) released by October 31, 2026?Tech
No$213 @ 64.3¢
Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027?Tech
Yes$187 @ 68.0¢
Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) released by October 31, 2026?Tech
No$158 @ 65.6¢
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Tech
Yes$58 @ 19.0¢
Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026?Tech
No$29 @ 65.0¢