0xd7be…539f

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xd7befdd99c37c7fb63c2845c6eb931506fca539f
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+15.1pp

ROI

+18%

Win rate

75% @ 60.1¢

Brier

0.177

Resolved

303

Avg size

$69

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	63% (24/38)	+4%	38
Politics	89% (17/19)	+39%	19
Geopolitics	86% (6/7)	+22%	7

Other38 bets
Hit rate
63% (24/38)
ROI
+4%
Politics19 bets
Hit rate
89% (17/19)
ROI
+39%
Geopolitics7 bets
Hit rate
86% (6/7)
ROI
+22%

Track record

73% hit · 47/64

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?	No	$58	48.2¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	$45	30.1¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$98	43.4¢	Lost
Kurds declare independence from Iran?	No	$172	73.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$638	85.0¢	Won
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	$204	71.9¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?	No	$174	87.0¢	Won
Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	$1.2k	84.2¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$519	74.5¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$113	28.2¢	Lost
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?	No	$350	63.1¢	Won
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?	Yes	$98	38.3¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	No	$431	74.4¢	Won
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?	Yes	$148	53.1¢	Lost
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?	No	$670	76.8¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?	No	$260	39.0¢	Lost
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	$415	83.0¢	Won
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?	No	$587	84.3¢	Won
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	$10	63.0¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	No	$443	88.6¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	No	$238	80.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	Yes	$121	50.9¢	Won
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	$657	38.6¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	$572	68.0¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	Yes	$561	61.1¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	$28	43.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.1k	47.4¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by April 30, 2026?	No	$35	70.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	$45	45.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$523	30.8¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?	No	$265	84.2¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	Yes	$587	58.4¢	Won
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	$189	80.9¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$186	74.3¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	$222	28.3¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	$15	60.0¢	Won
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	$123	79.0¢	Won
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?	No	$63	39.3¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	Yes	$595	64.9¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	$925	78.8¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	$187	80.1¢	Lost
Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	$380	76.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	$370	74.0¢	Won
Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	$930	71.4¢	Won
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	No	$249	69.0¢	Won
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	$160	80.0¢	Won
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	$184	30.6¢	Lost
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	$82	31.1¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$814	41.9¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	No	$48	80.1¢	Won

Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?Won
No$58 @ 48.2¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$45 @ 30.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$98 @ 43.4¢
Kurds declare independence from Iran?Won
No$172 @ 73.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$638 @ 85.0¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Won
No$204 @ 71.9¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?Won
No$174 @ 87.0¢
Iran leadership change by May 31?Won
No$1.2k @ 84.2¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$519 @ 74.5¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$113 @ 28.2¢
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?Won
No$350 @ 63.1¢
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?Lost
Yes$98 @ 38.3¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?Won
No$431 @ 74.4¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?Lost
Yes$148 @ 53.1¢
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?Won
No$670 @ 76.8¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?Lost
No$260 @ 39.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?Won
No$415 @ 83.0¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?Won
No$587 @ 84.3¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
No$10 @ 63.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Won
No$443 @ 88.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Lost
No$238 @ 80.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Won
Yes$121 @ 50.9¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Lost
No$657 @ 38.6¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Won
Yes$572 @ 68.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Won
Yes$561 @ 61.1¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?Won
No$28 @ 43.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 47.4¢
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by April 30, 2026?Won
No$35 @ 70.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Won
No$45 @ 45.0¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
No$523 @ 30.8¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?Won
No$265 @ 84.2¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Won
Yes$587 @ 58.4¢
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
No$189 @ 80.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$186 @ 74.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Lost
Yes$222 @ 28.3¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Won
No$15 @ 60.0¢
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
No$123 @ 79.0¢
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?Won
No$63 @ 39.3¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?Won
Yes$595 @ 64.9¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?Won
No$925 @ 78.8¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$187 @ 80.1¢
Iran leadership change by June 30?Won
No$380 @ 76.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?Won
No$370 @ 74.0¢
Iran leadership change by April 30?Won
No$930 @ 71.4¢
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?Won
No$249 @ 69.0¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Won
No$160 @ 80.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Lost
No$184 @ 30.6¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Won
Yes$82 @ 31.1¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Won
Yes$814 @ 41.9¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?Won
No$48 @ 80.1¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?	—	No	$554	92.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$490	77.6¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	—	Yes	$397	61.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	—	Yes	$219	52.9¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?	—	Yes	$218	45.3¢
Iran leadership change by August 31?	Politics	No	$190	94.8¢
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by August 31, 2026?	—	No	$135	93.7¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$113	25.0¢
Iran leadership change by August 15?	Politics	No	$98	97.9¢
Iran leadership change by September 30?	Politics	No	$87	87.0¢
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$61	26.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026?	—	No	$45	91.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?	—	Yes	$43	53.0¢
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 21, 2026?	—	No	$28	85.0¢
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 17, 2026?	—	No	$17	86.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	—	Yes	$13	64.0¢

Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?—
No$554 @ 92.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$490 @ 77.6¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?—
Yes$397 @ 61.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?—
Yes$219 @ 52.9¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?—
Yes$218 @ 45.3¢
Iran leadership change by August 31?Politics
No$190 @ 94.8¢
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by August 31, 2026?—
No$135 @ 93.7¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$113 @ 25.0¢
Iran leadership change by August 15?Politics
No$98 @ 97.9¢
Iran leadership change by September 30?Politics
No$87 @ 87.0¢
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026?—
Yes$61 @ 26.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026?—
No$45 @ 91.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?—
Yes$43 @ 53.0¢
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 21, 2026?—
No$28 @ 85.0¢
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 17, 2026?—
No$17 @ 86.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?—
Yes$13 @ 64.0¢