0xd7be…539f

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xd7befdd99c37c7fb63c2845c6eb931506fca539f
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+17.1pp

ROI

+31%

Win rate

74% @ 56.4¢

Brier

0.186

Resolved

487

Avg size

$69

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	65% (28/43)	+24%	43
Politics	86% (31/36)	+46%	36
Geopolitics	67% (16/24)	+14%	24

Other43 bets
Hit rate
65% (28/43)
ROI
+24%
Politics36 bets
Hit rate
86% (31/36)
ROI
+46%
Geopolitics24 bets
Hit rate
67% (16/24)
ROI
+14%

Track record

73% hit · 75/103

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?	No	$58	48.2¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	$45	30.1¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$98	43.4¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	No	$12	33.0¢	Lost
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	$29	45.0¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	$107	53.0¢	Lost
Kurds declare independence from Iran?	No	$172	73.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$73	69.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$638	85.0¢	Won
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	$204	71.9¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	$309	77.5¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?	No	$174	87.0¢	Won
Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	$1.2k	84.2¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$519	74.5¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$113	28.2¢	Lost
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?	No	$350	63.1¢	Won
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?	Yes	$98	38.3¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?	Yes	$138	69.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$740	74.0¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	No	$204	67.9¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	No	$431	74.4¢	Won
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?	Yes	$148	53.1¢	Lost
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?	No	$670	76.8¢	Won
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$7	28.0¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?	No	$260	39.0¢	Lost
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	$415	83.0¢	Won
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?	No	$587	84.3¢	Won
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	$10	63.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$569	50.0¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	No	$443	88.6¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	No	$238	80.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	Yes	$121	50.9¢	Won
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	$657	38.6¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	$572	68.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	Yes	$354	37.2¢	Lost
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	$29	19.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$1.0k	27.4¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	Yes	$561	61.1¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	$28	43.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$219	80.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$126	14.5¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?	No	$220	88.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$415	83.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.1k	47.4¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by April 30, 2026?	No	$35	70.0¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	$251	43.3¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	No	$6	63.0¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?	No	$85	85.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	$45	45.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$523	30.8¢	Lost

Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?Won
No$58 @ 48.2¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$45 @ 30.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$98 @ 43.4¢
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Lost
No$12 @ 33.0¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Won
No$29 @ 45.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Lost
Yes$107 @ 53.0¢
Kurds declare independence from Iran?Won
No$172 @ 73.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$73 @ 69.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$638 @ 85.0¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Won
No$204 @ 71.9¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Won
Yes$309 @ 77.5¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?Won
No$174 @ 87.0¢
Iran leadership change by May 31?Won
No$1.2k @ 84.2¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$519 @ 74.5¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$113 @ 28.2¢
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?Won
No$350 @ 63.1¢
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?Lost
Yes$98 @ 38.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?Won
Yes$138 @ 69.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$740 @ 74.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Won
No$204 @ 67.9¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?Won
No$431 @ 74.4¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?Lost
Yes$148 @ 53.1¢
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?Won
No$670 @ 76.8¢
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$7 @ 28.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?Lost
No$260 @ 39.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?Won
No$415 @ 83.0¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?Won
No$587 @ 84.3¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
No$10 @ 63.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$569 @ 50.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Won
No$443 @ 88.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Lost
No$238 @ 80.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Won
Yes$121 @ 50.9¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Lost
No$657 @ 38.6¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Won
Yes$572 @ 68.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Lost
Yes$354 @ 37.2¢
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?Lost
Yes$29 @ 19.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$1.0k @ 27.4¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Won
Yes$561 @ 61.1¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?Won
No$28 @ 43.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
No$219 @ 80.0¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$126 @ 14.5¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?Won
No$220 @ 88.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
No$415 @ 83.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 47.4¢
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by April 30, 2026?Won
No$35 @ 70.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?Won
No$251 @ 43.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Lost
No$6 @ 63.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?Won
No$85 @ 85.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Won
No$45 @ 45.0¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
No$523 @ 30.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$490	77.6¢
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$135	71.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$113	25.0¢
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$61	26.3¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$8	13.0¢
Iran leadership change by September 30?	Politics	No	$0	0.0¢

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$490 @ 77.6¢
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$135 @ 71.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$113 @ 25.0¢
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$61 @ 26.3¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$8 @ 13.0¢
Iran leadership change by September 30?Politics
No$0 @ 0.0¢