← Smart money
0xd727…ecce
ProfitableEdge
-2.5pp
ROI
+5%
Win rate
42% @ 44.7¢
Brier
0.223
Resolved
5457
Avg size
$80
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 43% (865/1999) | -5% | 1999 |
| Sports | 41% (60/145) | +16% | 145 |
| Politics | 100% (5/5) | +15% | 5 |
| Economy | 100% (4/4) | +53% | 4 |
| Geopolitics | 100% (1/1) | +15% | 1 |
- Other1999 bets
- Hit rate
- 43% (865/1999)
- ROI
- -5%
- Sports145 bets
- Hit rate
- 41% (60/145)
- ROI
- +16%
- Politics5 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (5/5)
- ROI
- +15%
- Economy4 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (4/4)
- ROI
- +53%
- Geopolitics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +15%
Track record
43% hit · 935/2154- Colorado Rockies$76 @ 38.0¢
- High Point Panthers$60 @ 20.0¢
- Colorado Rockies$7 @ 44.0¢
- Ducks$92 @ 46.0¢
- 76ers$56 @ 28.0¢
- St. Bonaventure Bonnies$120 @ 40.0¢
- Washington Nationals$76 @ 38.0¢
- Penn State Nittany Lions$93 @ 31.0¢
- Pittsburgh Pirates$39 @ 50.0¢
- Golden Knights$98 @ 49.0¢
- Athletics$102 @ 50.0¢
- Minnesota Twins$94 @ 47.0¢
- Baltimore Orioles$102 @ 50.0¢
- Sabres vs. KingsLostKings$94 @ 47.0¢
- Los Angeles Angels$87 @ 43.0¢
- San Francisco Giants$7 @ 23.0¢
- Hurricanes$138 @ 46.0¢
- Yes$17 @ 1.7¢
- Hornets$138 @ 69.0¢
- Colorado Rockies$87 @ 43.0¢
- Suns vs. ThunderLostThunder$213 @ 71.0¢
- Colorado Rockies$60 @ 30.0¢
- Texas Rangers$132 @ 44.0¢
- Liberty Flames$102 @ 34.0¢
- Pacers vs. KingsLostPacers$80 @ 39.9¢
- Grizzlies$76 @ 38.0¢
- Penguins$92 @ 46.0¢
- Minnesota Twins$92 @ 46.0¢
- Venezuela$26 @ 26.0¢
- Georgetown Hoyas$87 @ 29.0¢
- Baylor Bears$96 @ 48.0¢
- Red Wings$72 @ 36.0¢
- Nuggets$491 @ 70.1¢
- Wild vs. StarsLostWild$90 @ 45.0¢
- Kansas City Royals$93 @ 46.0¢
- San Francisco Giants$92 @ 46.0¢
- Texas Rangers$92 @ 46.0¢
- New York Mets$147 @ 49.0¢
- Philadelphia Phillies$91 @ 45.0¢
- Senators$90 @ 45.0¢
- Baltimore Orioles$50 @ 45.0¢
- Blue Jackets$66 @ 32.9¢
- Delaware State Hornets$105 @ 35.0¢
- Colorado Rockies$12 @ 39.8¢
- Blackhawks$100 @ 50.0¢
- Villanova Wildcats$138 @ 46.0¢
- Akron Zips$81 @ 27.0¢
- Michigan Wolverines$78 @ 78.0¢
- Pittsburgh Pirates$87 @ 43.0¢
- Colorado Rockies$10 @ 35.0¢
Recent trades
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Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Politics | No | $5.5k | 96.0¢ |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Economy | Yes | $572 | 95.3¢ |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027? | Economy | Yes | $362 | 90.5¢ |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027? | Economy | No | $188 | 93.8¢ |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027? | Economy | Yes | $107 | 53.5¢ |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? | Economy | Yes | $86 | 43.1¢ |
| Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027? | Economy | Yes | $81 | 81.0¢ |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Politics | Yes | $64 | 30.4¢ |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027? | Economy | Yes | $32 | 15.7¢ |
| New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays | Sports | New York Yankees | $14 | 45.0¢ |
| San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers | Sports | San Diego Padres | $11 | 36.0¢ |
| Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | Sports | Atlanta Braves | $10 | 33.0¢ |
- No$5.5k @ 96.0¢
- Yes$572 @ 95.3¢
- Yes$362 @ 90.5¢
- No$188 @ 93.8¢
- Yes$107 @ 53.5¢
- Yes$86 @ 43.1¢
- Yes$81 @ 81.0¢
- Yes$64 @ 30.4¢
- Yes$32 @ 15.7¢
- New York Yankees$14 @ 45.0¢
- San Diego Padres$11 @ 36.0¢
- Atlanta Braves$10 @ 33.0¢