0xd717…3b85

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xd71776a8d4fddeb3c150c4607b3f8bec31213b85
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.8pp

ROI

+19%

Win rate

40% @ 33.6¢

Brier

0.135

Resolved

394

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	20% (553/2776)	+14%	2776
Science	13% (131/1004)	+0%	1004
Politics	22% (15/69)	-7%	69
Sports	47% (18/38)	-5%	38
Tech	13% (1/8)	+12%	8
Culture	17% (1/6)	+5%	6
Economy	20% (1/5)	+4%	5
Geopolitics	33% (1/3)	+56%	3
Crypto	0% (0/2)	-100%	2

Other2776 bets
Hit rate
20% (553/2776)
ROI
+14%
Science1004 bets
Hit rate
13% (131/1004)
ROI
+0%
Politics69 bets
Hit rate
22% (15/69)
ROI
-7%
Sports38 bets
Hit rate
47% (18/38)
ROI
-5%
Tech8 bets
Hit rate
13% (1/8)
ROI
+12%
Culture6 bets
Hit rate
17% (1/6)
ROI
+5%
Economy5 bets
Hit rate
20% (1/5)
ROI
+4%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+56%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%

Track record

18% hit · 721/3911

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on September 20?	No	$4	84.0¢	Won
Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	$1	3.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 21?	No	$9	1.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 21?	Yes	$15	21.5¢	Won
Will United Russia win between 295 and 309 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	$3	4.6¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on September 21?	No	$12	86.9¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on September 20?	Yes	$1	16.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on September 21?	No	$16	68.6¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on September 21?	Yes	$5	24.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C or higher on September 20?	Yes	$1	8.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on September 20?	No	$34	42.5¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on September 20?	Yes	$16	58.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on September 20?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 26°C on September 20?	No	$0	0.8¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on September 21?	No	$8	61.1¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on September 21?	Yes	$1	6.4¢	Lost
Will Grüne win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	No	$84	30.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 21?	No	$35	49.8¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 21?	Yes	$14	58.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on September 20?	Yes	$1	18.0¢	Lost
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	$11	4.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on September 21?	Yes	$2	1.9¢	Lost
Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	$2	0.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on September 21?	Yes	$7	17.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on September 20?	No	$15	69.5¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on September 20?	No	$0	2.0¢	Lost
Will Linke win at least 23% of all valid second votes?	No	$1	23.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on September 20?	No	$3	57.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on September 20?	Yes	$2	2.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on September 21?	No	$18	36.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on September 21?	Yes	$3	55.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on September 21?	No	$10	74.3¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on September 21?	Yes	$7	20.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on September 21?	No	$1	7.1¢	Lost
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	$51	3.2¢	Lost
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on September 20?	No	$0	1.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on September 21?	No	$4	86.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on September 21?	Yes	$0	3.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on September 21?	No	$3	53.0¢	Won
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on September 21?	Yes	$4	37.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on September 21?	Yes	$1	5.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on September 20?	No	$0	9.4¢	Lost
Will AfD win between 14% and 17% of all valid second votes?	No	$2	14.8¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on September 21?	No	$23	47.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on September 21?	No	$6	84.1¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on September 21?	Yes	$1	3.6¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on September 20?	Yes	$1	7.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on September 20?	No	$6	54.5¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on September 21?	No	$1	13.5¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on September 21?	Yes	$5	23.9¢	Lost

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on September 20?Won
No$4 @ 84.0¢
Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 21?Lost
No$9 @ 1.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 21?Won
Yes$15 @ 21.5¢
Will United Russia win between 295 and 309 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Lost
Yes$3 @ 4.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on September 21?Won
No$12 @ 86.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on September 20?Lost
Yes$1 @ 16.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on September 21?Won
No$16 @ 68.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on September 21?Lost
Yes$5 @ 24.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C or higher on September 20?Lost
Yes$1 @ 8.0¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on September 20?Won
No$34 @ 42.5¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on September 20?Lost
Yes$16 @ 58.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on September 20?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 26°C on September 20?Lost
No$0 @ 0.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on September 21?Won
No$8 @ 61.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on September 21?Lost
Yes$1 @ 6.4¢
Will Grüne win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Won
No$84 @ 30.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 21?Won
No$35 @ 49.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 21?Lost
Yes$14 @ 58.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on September 20?Lost
Yes$1 @ 18.0¢
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
No$11 @ 4.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on September 21?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.9¢
Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on September 21?Lost
Yes$7 @ 17.5¢
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on September 20?Won
No$15 @ 69.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on September 20?Lost
No$0 @ 2.0¢
Will Linke win at least 23% of all valid second votes?Lost
No$1 @ 23.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on September 20?Won
No$3 @ 57.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on September 20?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on September 21?Lost
No$18 @ 36.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on September 21?Won
Yes$3 @ 55.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on September 21?Won
No$10 @ 74.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on September 21?Lost
Yes$7 @ 20.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on September 21?Lost
No$1 @ 7.1¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
No$51 @ 3.2¢
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on September 20?Lost
No$0 @ 1.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on September 21?Won
No$4 @ 86.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on September 21?Lost
Yes$0 @ 3.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on September 21?Won
No$3 @ 53.0¢
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on September 21?Lost
Yes$4 @ 37.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on September 21?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on September 20?Lost
No$0 @ 9.4¢
Will AfD win between 14% and 17% of all valid second votes?Lost
No$2 @ 14.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on September 21?Lost
No$23 @ 47.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on September 21?Won
No$6 @ 84.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on September 21?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on September 20?Lost
Yes$1 @ 7.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on September 20?Won
No$6 @ 54.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on September 21?Won
No$1 @ 13.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on September 21?Lost
Yes$5 @ 23.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	Business	Yes	$540	10.1¢
Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$235	91.6¢
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Sports	Yes	$226	2.0¢
Will Tencent have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$152	3.1¢
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$151	3.1¢
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$151	3.1¢
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$151	3.1¢
Will StepFun have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$151	3.1¢
Will MiniMax have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$151	3.1¢
Will Thinky have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$151	3.1¢
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$151	3.1¢
Will Nvidia have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$151	3.1¢
Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$149	3.1¢
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$149	3.1¢
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$148	3.1¢
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$147	3.1¢
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$140	3.1¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Culture	No	$120	47.3¢
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$119	3.1¢
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$99	3.1¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$63	84.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C or higher on September 22?	Science	Yes	$57	9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on September 22?	Science	Yes	$57	9.1¢
Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027?	Politics	No	$56	99.8¢
Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027?	Politics	No	$56	99.8¢
Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027?	Politics	No	$56	99.8¢
Will Anthony Albanese be the next leader out before 2027?	Politics	No	$56	99.7¢
Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?	Politics	No	$56	99.7¢
Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027?	Politics	No	$56	99.7¢
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027?	Politics	No	$56	99.6¢

Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?Business
Yes$540 @ 10.1¢
Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?Crypto
No$235 @ 91.6¢
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's US Open?Sports
Yes$226 @ 2.0¢
Will Tencent have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$152 @ 3.1¢
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$151 @ 3.1¢
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$151 @ 3.1¢
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$151 @ 3.1¢
Will StepFun have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$151 @ 3.1¢
Will MiniMax have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$151 @ 3.1¢
Will Thinky have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$151 @ 3.1¢
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$151 @ 3.1¢
Will Nvidia have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$151 @ 3.1¢
Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$149 @ 3.1¢
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$149 @ 3.1¢
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$148 @ 3.1¢
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$147 @ 3.1¢
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$140 @ 3.1¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Culture
No$120 @ 47.3¢
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$119 @ 3.1¢
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$99 @ 3.1¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Tech
No$63 @ 84.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C or higher on September 22?Science
Yes$57 @ 9.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on September 22?Science
Yes$57 @ 9.1¢
Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027?Politics
No$56 @ 99.8¢
Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027?Politics
No$56 @ 99.8¢
Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027?Politics
No$56 @ 99.8¢
Will Anthony Albanese be the next leader out before 2027?Politics
No$56 @ 99.7¢
Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?Politics
No$56 @ 99.7¢
Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027?Politics
No$56 @ 99.7¢
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027?Politics
No$56 @ 99.6¢