← Smart money
0xd640…480c
SharpEdge
-2.3pp
ROI
+17%
Win rate
28% @ 30.1¢
Brier
0.122
Resolved
2269
Avg size
$20
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 38% (114/302) | -19% | 302 |
| Politics | 38% (42/112) | +27% | 112 |
| Tech | 16% (3/19) | -79% | 19 |
| Business | 8% (1/13) | -78% | 13 |
| Geopolitics | 27% (3/11) | -53% | 11 |
| Sports | 10% (1/10) | -62% | 10 |
| Crypto | 17% (1/6) | -99% | 6 |
| Economy | 0% (0/4) | -100% | 4 |
| Science | 100% (1/1) | +95% | 1 |
| Culture | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
- Other302 bets
- Hit rate
- 38% (114/302)
- ROI
- -19%
- Politics112 bets
- Hit rate
- 38% (42/112)
- ROI
- +27%
- Tech19 bets
- Hit rate
- 16% (3/19)
- ROI
- -79%
- Business13 bets
- Hit rate
- 8% (1/13)
- ROI
- -78%
- Geopolitics11 bets
- Hit rate
- 27% (3/11)
- ROI
- -53%
- Sports10 bets
- Hit rate
- 10% (1/10)
- ROI
- -62%
- Crypto6 bets
- Hit rate
- 17% (1/6)
- ROI
- -99%
- Economy4 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/4)
- ROI
- -100%
- Science1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +95%
- Culture1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
35% hit · 166/479- No$31 @ 0.1¢
- No$158 @ 16.3¢
- No$908 @ 64.9¢
- No$78 @ 5.0¢
- No$2 @ 1.4¢
- No$0 @ 3.2¢
- No$9 @ 78.7¢
- Yes$2 @ 44.1¢
- No$20 @ 76.2¢
- Yes$2 @ 17.0¢
- No$1 @ 7.0¢
- No$1.1k @ 27.6¢
- Yes$2 @ 12.0¢
- Yes$10 @ 17.6¢
- Yes$2 @ 3.3¢
- Yes$6 @ 5.1¢
- Yes$4 @ 21.3¢
- Yes$1 @ 4.5¢
- No$4 @ 73.3¢
- No$2 @ 8.5¢
- Yes$8 @ 18.7¢
- Yes$1 @ 1.4¢
- No$8 @ 65.2¢
- No$3 @ 58.0¢
- Yes$6 @ 41.0¢
- Yes$4 @ 4.3¢
- Yes$2 @ 39.0¢
- Yes$4 @ 1.3¢
- No$19.5k @ 70.7¢
- No$3 @ 57.0¢
- No$192 @ 0.2¢
- Yes$0 @ 0.7¢
- No$16 @ 78.3¢
- No$2 @ 48.0¢
- Canadiens$2 @ 31.0¢
- No$98 @ 78.0¢
- Yes$2 @ 2.8¢
- Yes$151 @ 50.0¢
- Golden Knights$7 @ 18.0¢
- No$7 @ 17.2¢
- No$20 @ 79.4¢
- Yes$1 @ 19.0¢
- No$1 @ 1.9¢
- No$93 @ 38.8¢
- Yes$6 @ 62.0¢
- No$31 @ 43.6¢
- Yes$3 @ 52.0¢
- No$94 @ 61.1¢
- No$2 @ 19.0¢
- Yes$0 @ 0.5¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026? | Politics | No | $1.2k | 89.0¢ |
| Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 15? | Geopolitics | No | $534 | 89.0¢ |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October? | Other | No | $299 | 78.0¢ |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in October? | Other | No | $246 | 44.0¢ |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | Politics | No | $9 | 18.0¢ |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31? | Politics | Yes | $6 | 15.3¢ |
| Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? | Politics | No | $2 | 73.6¢ |
| Will PT win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? | Politics | No | $2 | 62.8¢ |
| US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? | Politics | Yes | $1 | 30.0¢ |
| Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? | Politics | Yes | $1 | 21.1¢ |
| Obama arrested before 2027? | Politics | Yes | $0 | 9.7¢ |
| Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? | Politics | Yes | $0 | 16.0¢ |
- No$1.2k @ 89.0¢
- No$534 @ 89.0¢
- No$299 @ 78.0¢
- No$246 @ 44.0¢
- No$9 @ 18.0¢
- Yes$6 @ 15.3¢
- No$2 @ 73.6¢
- No$2 @ 62.8¢
- Yes$1 @ 30.0¢
- Yes$1 @ 21.1¢
- Obama arrested before 2027?PoliticsYes$0 @ 9.7¢
- Yes$0 @ 16.0¢