0xd632…8afb

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xd6321c049c527e8a622d6aa35f514ae74f798afb
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.2pp

ROI

+42%

Win rate

37% @ 28.5¢

Brier

0.149

Resolved

1006

Avg size

$25

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	44% (36/81)	+39%	81
Politics	44% (23/52)	+40%	52
Crypto	45% (5/11)	+23%	11
Geopolitics	22% (2/9)	+145%	9
Sports	57% (4/7)	+4%	7
Tech	40% (2/5)	+303%	5
Business	50% (1/2)	-87%	2
Science	100% (1/1)	+29%	1
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other81 bets
Hit rate
44% (36/81)
ROI
+39%
Politics52 bets
Hit rate
44% (23/52)
ROI
+40%
Crypto11 bets
Hit rate
45% (5/11)
ROI
+23%
Geopolitics9 bets
Hit rate
22% (2/9)
ROI
+145%
Sports7 bets
Hit rate
57% (4/7)
ROI
+4%
Tech5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
+303%
Business2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-87%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+29%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

44% hit · 74/169

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?	Yes	$152	18.1¢	Lost
Will July be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?	Yes	$1	6.0¢	Lost
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$0	5.0¢	Lost
Will Jorge Bom Jesus win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?	Yes	$2	0.2¢	Lost
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$335	15.8¢	Lost
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	No	$243	77.3¢	Won
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	$77	14.8¢	Lost
Will Deere Q2 revenue be above $11.5B?	Yes	$107	57.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$61	13.5¢	Lost
Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$2	0.2¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	No	$72	72.0¢	Won
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$925	63.0¢	Won
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$70	39.0¢	Lost
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	$570	75.7¢	Won
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$66	3.3¢	Lost
Will Sunshine Silver's market cap be between $2B and $2.25B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$225	35.3¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	No	$80	80.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?	No	$20	49.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$75	68.0¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$30	13.0¢	Lost
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$828	73.7¢	Won
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$650	15.4¢	Lost
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?	Yes	$401	62.2¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$120	70.0¢	Won
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	$494	54.0¢	Won
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$35	29.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$57	28.5¢	Won
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$51	1.6¢	Lost
Will VOX (VOX) win fewer than 13 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Election?	Yes	$0	6.0¢	Lost
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	$475	39.6¢	Won
Will Alfonso López Chau finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$6	1.4¢	Lost
Will Snowflake Q1 Product revenue be above $1.275B?	No	$12	14.0¢	Lost
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?	Yes	$546	28.2¢	Lost
Will Broadcom Q2 AI revenue be above $11.0B?	No	$183	12.7¢	Won
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$88	44.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	Yes	$21	54.1¢	Won
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?	No	$146	3.9¢	Lost
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	$403	11.8¢	Lost
Will another AI-generated song reach number 1 on any Billboard chart by June 30?	No	$15	60.0¢	Lost
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	$313	34.5¢	Lost
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?	Yes	$1	1.4¢	Lost
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?	Yes	$5	0.2¢	Lost
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June?	No	$207	69.0¢	Won
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?	No	$173	86.5¢	Won
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?	No	$7	71.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in April 2026?	No	$112	32.2¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in April 2026?	Yes	$273	44.0¢	Won
Will June be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?	Yes	$1	6.0¢	Lost
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31?	No	$0	0.2¢	Lost

Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?Lost
Yes$152 @ 18.1¢
Will July be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 6.0¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$0 @ 5.0¢
Will Jorge Bom Jesus win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.2¢
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$335 @ 15.8¢
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Won
No$243 @ 77.3¢
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?Lost
Yes$77 @ 14.8¢
Will Deere Q2 revenue be above $11.5B?Won
Yes$107 @ 57.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$61 @ 13.5¢
Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.2¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?Won
No$72 @ 72.0¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$925 @ 63.0¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
Yes$70 @ 39.0¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Won
No$570 @ 75.7¢
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$66 @ 3.3¢
Will Sunshine Silver's market cap be between $2B and $2.25B at market close on IPO day?Lost
Yes$225 @ 35.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?Won
No$80 @ 80.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?Won
No$20 @ 49.0¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$75 @ 68.0¢
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$30 @ 13.0¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
No$828 @ 73.7¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$650 @ 15.4¢
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?Won
Yes$401 @ 62.2¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$120 @ 70.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?Won
Yes$494 @ 54.0¢
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$35 @ 29.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$57 @ 28.5¢
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$51 @ 1.6¢
Will VOX (VOX) win fewer than 13 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Election?Lost
Yes$0 @ 6.0¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Won
Yes$475 @ 39.6¢
Will Alfonso López Chau finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$6 @ 1.4¢
Will Snowflake Q1 Product revenue be above $1.275B?Lost
No$12 @ 14.0¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?Lost
Yes$546 @ 28.2¢
Will Broadcom Q2 AI revenue be above $11.0B?Won
No$183 @ 12.7¢
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
No$88 @ 44.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?Won
Yes$21 @ 54.1¢
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?Lost
No$146 @ 3.9¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
No$403 @ 11.8¢
Will another AI-generated song reach number 1 on any Billboard chart by June 30?Lost
No$15 @ 60.0¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?Lost
Yes$313 @ 34.5¢
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.4¢
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.2¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June?Won
No$207 @ 69.0¢
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?Won
No$173 @ 86.5¢
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?Won
No$7 @ 71.0¢
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in April 2026?Lost
No$112 @ 32.2¢
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in April 2026?Won
Yes$273 @ 44.0¢
Will June be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 6.0¢
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31?Lost
No$0 @ 0.2¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$522	43.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	No	$402	43.9¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on September 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$371	92.7¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?	Culture	No	$368	92.0¢
Mega Dragonite ex Price Over/Under $668.24 on September 30?	Culture	Over	$314	31.5¢
Ascended Heroes Elite Trainer Box Price Over/Under $168.03 on September 30?	Culture	Under	$293	78.3¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Economy	Yes	$276	2.3¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$268	59.2¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.50 and $7.00 on September 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$261	69.8¢
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.50 and $0.55 on September 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$234	59.1¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$227	37.1¢
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$225	56.2¢
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be at least $0.60 on September 30, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$209	69.1¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$207	59.0¢
Pikachu ex Price Over/Under $1,059.87 on September 30?	Culture	Over	$202	32.2¢
Mega Charizard Y ex Price Over/Under $405.34 on September 30?	Culture	Over	$193	31.0¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $4.00 on December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$188	75.1¢
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Economy	Yes	$172	44.5¢
Phantasmal Flames Booster Box Price Over/Under $393.19 on September 30?	Culture	Over	$166	42.9¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$163	34.0¢
Celebrations Ultra Premium Collection Price Over/Under $1,253.71 on September 30?	Culture	Over	$150	31.5¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.50 on September 30, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$150	20.8¢
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?	Politics	No	$143	89.0¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on October 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$142	71.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	Politics	No	$138	92.0¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on October 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$137	72.6¢
151 Ultra-Premium Collection Price Over/Under $933.63 on September 30?	Culture	Under	$135	76.2¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on September 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$126	78.9¢
Will four or more people dissent the October Fed decision?	Economy	Yes	$118	20.4¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Economy	No	$108	27.0¢

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$522 @ 43.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
No$402 @ 43.9¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on September 30, 2026?Tech
No$371 @ 92.7¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?Culture
No$368 @ 92.0¢
Mega Dragonite ex Price Over/Under $668.24 on September 30?Culture
Over$314 @ 31.5¢
Ascended Heroes Elite Trainer Box Price Over/Under $168.03 on September 30?Culture
Under$293 @ 78.3¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?Economy
Yes$276 @ 2.3¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$268 @ 59.2¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.50 and $7.00 on September 30, 2026?Tech
No$261 @ 69.8¢
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.50 and $0.55 on September 30, 2026?Tech
No$234 @ 59.1¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026?Tech
No$227 @ 37.1¢
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$225 @ 56.2¢
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be at least $0.60 on September 30, 2026?Tech
Yes$209 @ 69.1¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$207 @ 59.0¢
Pikachu ex Price Over/Under $1,059.87 on September 30?Culture
Over$202 @ 32.2¢
Mega Charizard Y ex Price Over/Under $405.34 on September 30?Culture
Over$193 @ 31.0¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $4.00 on December 31, 2026?Tech
No$188 @ 75.1¢
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?Economy
Yes$172 @ 44.5¢
Phantasmal Flames Booster Box Price Over/Under $393.19 on September 30?Culture
Over$166 @ 42.9¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?Politics
Yes$163 @ 34.0¢
Celebrations Ultra Premium Collection Price Over/Under $1,253.71 on September 30?Culture
Over$150 @ 31.5¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.50 on September 30, 2026?Tech
Yes$150 @ 20.8¢
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?Politics
No$143 @ 89.0¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on October 31, 2026?Tech
No$142 @ 71.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?Politics
No$138 @ 92.0¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on October 31, 2026?Tech
No$137 @ 72.6¢
151 Ultra-Premium Collection Price Over/Under $933.63 on September 30?Culture
Under$135 @ 76.2¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on September 30, 2026?Tech
No$126 @ 78.9¢
Will four or more people dissent the October Fed decision?Economy
Yes$118 @ 20.4¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy
No$108 @ 27.0¢