0xd5db…3c45

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xd5db05423b6718497684ae1bbe1557746d2c3c45
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.6pp

ROI

+6%

Win rate

30% @ 22.9¢

Brier

0.113

Resolved

1015

Avg size

$59

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	29% (25/86)	+4%	86
Other	26% (16/62)	+4%	62
Geopolitics	36% (4/11)	+42%	11
Sports	33% (2/6)	+17%	6

Politics86 bets
Hit rate
29% (25/86)
ROI
+4%
Other62 bets
Hit rate
26% (16/62)
ROI
+4%
Geopolitics11 bets
Hit rate
36% (4/11)
ROI
+42%
Sports6 bets
Hit rate
33% (2/6)
ROI
+17%

Track record

28% hit · 47/165

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?	Yes	$126	3.4¢	Lost
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	$70	44.0¢	Lost
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	Yes	$205	31.8¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$6	0.8¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria?	Yes	$34	0.3¢	Lost
Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	$13	0.2¢	Lost
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	Yes	$141	4.3¢	Lost
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$62	11.1¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.4k	23.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	No	$1.0k	40.0¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?	No	$153	85.0¢	Won
Will Romania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	$51	1.9¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	$190	10.0¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$208	16.0¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	Yes	$80	8.0¢	Lost
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	Yes	$413	14.0¢	Lost
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 8?	Yes	$30	5.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$3	0.1¢	Lost
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 10?	No	$416	34.5¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$80	3.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$120	8.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?	No	$60	45.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$2	0.1¢	Lost
Will Graham Platner be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?	Yes	$41	2.9¢	Lost
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$116	2.3¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	No	$196	21.8¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$190	5.0¢	Won
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?	Yes	$556	29.7¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt?	Yes	$11	0.8¢	Lost
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?	No	$819	73.6¢	Won
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?	Yes	$195	27.8¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	Yes	$100	15.3¢	Lost
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?	Yes	$33	0.7¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$402	66.5¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$799	31.0¢	Won
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?	Yes	$101	13.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	$1.2k	33.4¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	$756	84.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	Yes	$225	11.2¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	$205	1.8¢	Lost
Will Lithuania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$123	4.8¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?	Yes	$123	8.8¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	Yes	$224	14.5¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$17	2.8¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$39	0.5¢	Lost
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?	No	$22	11.0¢	Lost
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?	Yes	$1.1k	85.5¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	$244	10.2¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	$1.2k	41.6¢	Won
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	$253	50.6¢	Won

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?Lost
Yes$126 @ 3.4¢
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$70 @ 44.0¢
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?Won
Yes$205 @ 31.8¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 0.8¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria?Lost
Yes$34 @ 0.3¢
Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?Lost
No$13 @ 0.2¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Lost
Yes$141 @ 4.3¢
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$62 @ 11.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.4k @ 23.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Won
No$1.0k @ 40.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?Won
No$153 @ 85.0¢
Will Romania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?Lost
No$51 @ 1.9¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Lost
Yes$190 @ 10.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$208 @ 16.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Lost
Yes$80 @ 8.0¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Lost
Yes$413 @ 14.0¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 8?Lost
Yes$30 @ 5.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.1¢
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 10?Lost
No$416 @ 34.5¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$80 @ 3.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$120 @ 8.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?Won
No$60 @ 45.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.1¢
Will Graham Platner be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?Lost
Yes$41 @ 2.9¢
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$116 @ 2.3¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Lost
No$196 @ 21.8¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
Yes$190 @ 5.0¢
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Lost
Yes$556 @ 29.7¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt?Lost
Yes$11 @ 0.8¢
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Won
No$819 @ 73.6¢
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Lost
Yes$195 @ 27.8¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$100 @ 15.3¢
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?Lost
Yes$33 @ 0.7¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$402 @ 66.5¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$799 @ 31.0¢
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?Lost
Yes$101 @ 13.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 33.4¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Won
No$756 @ 84.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?Lost
Yes$225 @ 11.2¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?Lost
Yes$205 @ 1.8¢
Will Lithuania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$123 @ 4.8¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?Lost
Yes$123 @ 8.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?Lost
Yes$224 @ 14.5¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
Yes$17 @ 2.8¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$39 @ 0.5¢
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?Lost
No$22 @ 11.0¢
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 85.5¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Lost
No$244 @ 10.2¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 41.6¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Won
Yes$253 @ 50.6¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$680	70.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Politics	No	$588	36.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Politics	No	$349	50.6¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Politics	No	$303	23.7¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$283	26.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$151	13.7¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?	Politics	No	$142	8.6¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$105	14.6¢
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$104	13.0¢
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$100	18.5¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$93	9.3¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$83	22.3¢
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan by end of summit?	Politics	Yes	$71	1.3¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$46	9.0¢
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$32	2.4¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$28	27.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$7	70.3¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Politics	No	$4	89.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Politics	No	$4	72.8¢
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Politics	No	$4	73.0¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	No	$3	66.8¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	No	$2	34.4¢
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2	28.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$1	21.0¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$1	22.4¢
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1	28.0¢
Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$1	17.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1	15.9¢
US imposes new sanctions on China by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$1	14.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1	10.0¢

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$680 @ 70.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Politics
No$588 @ 36.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Politics
No$349 @ 50.6¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Politics
No$303 @ 23.7¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$283 @ 26.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?Geopolitics
Yes$151 @ 13.7¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?Politics
No$142 @ 8.6¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$105 @ 14.6¢
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$104 @ 13.0¢
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$100 @ 18.5¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$93 @ 9.3¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics
Yes$83 @ 22.3¢
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan by end of summit?Politics
Yes$71 @ 1.3¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$46 @ 9.0¢
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$32 @ 2.4¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$28 @ 27.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$7 @ 70.3¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Politics
No$4 @ 89.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Politics
No$4 @ 72.8¢
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics
No$4 @ 73.0¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
No$3 @ 66.8¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
No$2 @ 34.4¢
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics
Yes$2 @ 28.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Geopolitics
No$1 @ 21.0¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$1 @ 22.4¢
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics
Yes$1 @ 28.0¢
Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?Politics
Yes$1 @ 17.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$1 @ 15.9¢
US imposes new sanctions on China by September 30?Politics
Yes$1 @ 14.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?Politics
Yes$1 @ 10.0¢