0xd498…80ae

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xd498f2d1ae092dfc39088343f6d4e9219c7780ae
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+22.7pp

ROI

+94%

Win rate

44% @ 21.6¢

Brier

0.214

Resolved

1104

Avg size

$26

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	37% (16/43)	+103%	43
Politics	33% (2/6)	+0%	6
Sports	33% (1/3)	-7%	3
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other43 bets
Hit rate
37% (16/43)
ROI
+103%
Politics6 bets
Hit rate
33% (2/6)
ROI
+0%
Sports3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-7%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

35% hit · 19/54

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$327	81.4¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	$188	18.8¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$35	17.5¢	Lost
Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2025?	Yes	$6	0.3¢	Lost
Linea FDV above $4B one day after launch?	Yes	$144	9.1¢	Lost
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June?	No	$242	20.7¢	Won
Paetongtarn Shinawatra out as PM of Thailand by August 31?	Yes	$4.0k	52.6¢	Won
Will the Pheu Thai Party (PT) win between 80 and 89 seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?	Yes	$13	50.0¢	Lost
Paetongtarn Shinawatra out as Prime Minister of Thailand in July?	Yes	$10	1.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	No	$88	6.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on February 24?	Yes	$30	61.0¢	Lost
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	Yes	$12	1.2¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	No	$240	0.4¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	No	$85	4.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on February 25?	Yes	$20	40.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$68	17.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on February 23?	Yes	$9	53.0¢	Won
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	$149	0.1¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?	No	$19	37.0¢	Won
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?	No	$840	21.0¢	Won
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	Yes	$382	0.3¢	Lost
Next Thai Prime Minister Chosen by March 31?	Yes	$4.2k	44.6¢	Won
Netanyahu out by March 31?	Yes	$138	3.4¢	Lost
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 15?	Yes	$65	13.0¢	Lost
Will the People’s Party (PPLE) win fewer than 120 seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?	No	$1.4k	35.8¢	Won
Will the People’s Party (PPLE) win fewer than 120 seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?	Yes	$3.9k	80.5¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?	No	$10	0.1¢	Lost
Will Yodchanan Wongsawat be the next prime minister of Thailand?	Yes	$65	3.3¢	Lost
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?	Yes	$2.3k	25.2¢	Won
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$102	0.1¢	Lost
Will the Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win 140 or more seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?	Yes	$1.0k	44.3¢	Won
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	$237	82.0¢	Won
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026?	No	$382	69.9¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	Yes	$498	49.8¢	Won
Will the People’s Party (PPLE) win between 120 and 134 seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?	No	$107	69.5¢	Lost
Will the People’s Party (PPLE) win between 120 and 134 seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?	Yes	$3.6k	34.8¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$123	23.7¢	Lost
Thai Constitutional Court invalidates election?	Yes	$20	6.7¢	Lost
Will Igor Thiago be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?	Yes	$5	1.9¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	No	$220	22.0¢	Won
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in September?	No	$145	18.1¢	Lost
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in September?	No	$181	16.5¢	Lost
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	No	$232	11.4¢	Lost
Will Leeds be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?	Yes	$320	6.4¢	Lost
Will Trump visit China by May 8?	Yes	$9	1.8¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$946	86.0¢	Won
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May?	No	$120	23.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	$100	10.0¢	Lost
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in September?	No	$33	6.6¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	No	$388	64.7¢	Won

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$327 @ 81.4¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$188 @ 18.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$35 @ 17.5¢
Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2025?Lost
Yes$6 @ 0.3¢
Linea FDV above $4B one day after launch?Lost
Yes$144 @ 9.1¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June?Won
No$242 @ 20.7¢
Paetongtarn Shinawatra out as PM of Thailand by August 31?Won
Yes$4.0k @ 52.6¢
Will the Pheu Thai Party (PT) win between 80 and 89 seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?Lost
Yes$13 @ 50.0¢
Paetongtarn Shinawatra out as Prime Minister of Thailand in July?Lost
Yes$10 @ 1.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?Lost
No$88 @ 6.3¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on February 24?Lost
Yes$30 @ 61.0¢
Will Trump visit China by April 30?Lost
Yes$12 @ 1.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Lost
No$240 @ 0.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?Lost
No$85 @ 4.3¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on February 25?Lost
Yes$20 @ 40.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$68 @ 17.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on February 23?Won
Yes$9 @ 53.0¢
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$149 @ 0.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?Won
No$19 @ 37.0¢
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?Won
No$840 @ 21.0¢
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?Lost
Yes$382 @ 0.3¢
Next Thai Prime Minister Chosen by March 31?Won
Yes$4.2k @ 44.6¢
Netanyahu out by March 31?Lost
Yes$138 @ 3.4¢
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 15?Lost
Yes$65 @ 13.0¢
Will the People’s Party (PPLE) win fewer than 120 seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?Won
No$1.4k @ 35.8¢
Will the People’s Party (PPLE) win fewer than 120 seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?Lost
Yes$3.9k @ 80.5¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?Lost
No$10 @ 0.1¢
Will Yodchanan Wongsawat be the next prime minister of Thailand?Lost
Yes$65 @ 3.3¢
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?Won
Yes$2.3k @ 25.2¢
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$102 @ 0.1¢
Will the Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win 140 or more seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?Won
Yes$1.0k @ 44.3¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?Won
Yes$237 @ 82.0¢
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026?Won
No$382 @ 69.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?Won
Yes$498 @ 49.8¢
Will the People’s Party (PPLE) win between 120 and 134 seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?Lost
No$107 @ 69.5¢
Will the People’s Party (PPLE) win between 120 and 134 seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?Won
Yes$3.6k @ 34.8¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$123 @ 23.7¢
Thai Constitutional Court invalidates election?Lost
Yes$20 @ 6.7¢
Will Igor Thiago be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.9¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?Won
No$220 @ 22.0¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in September?Lost
No$145 @ 18.1¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in September?Lost
No$181 @ 16.5¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?Lost
No$232 @ 11.4¢
Will Leeds be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?Lost
Yes$320 @ 6.4¢
Will Trump visit China by May 8?Lost
Yes$9 @ 1.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Won
Yes$946 @ 86.0¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May?Won
No$120 @ 23.0¢
US forces enter Iran by December 31?Lost
No$100 @ 10.0¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in September?Lost
No$33 @ 6.6¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?Won
No$388 @ 64.7¢

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