0xd478…2a73

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xd478912d1ffc5c5242f0a5ab4e69bf692c4c2a73
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+11.7pp

ROI

+28%

Win rate

74% @ 62.4¢

Brier

0.131

Resolved

147

Avg size

$94

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	60% (25/42)	+18%	42
Politics	78% (7/9)	+36%	9

Other42 bets
Hit rate
60% (25/42)
ROI
+18%
Politics9 bets
Hit rate
78% (7/9)
ROI
+36%

Track record

63% hit · 32/51

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$432	86.5¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	$400	97.5¢	Won
Will Kamala say "Project 2025" at debate?	Yes	$4	86.0¢	Won
Will Fed cut interest rates 6+ times in 2024?	No	$186	88.1¢	Won
Will Trump say "America first" during his inauguration speech?	Yes	$1	85.0¢	Won
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?	No	$1.7k	83.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" at debate?	Yes	$2	13.0¢	Lost
Will Kamala say "Artificial Intelligence" at debate?	Yes	$2	34.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$130	72.0¢	Won
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	No	$93	76.0¢	Won
Will Fed cut interest rates 3 times in 2024?	No	$10	72.0¢	Won
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting?	No	$989	89.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	$34	23.0¢	Lost
Scroll airdrop by September 30?	No	$28	51.0¢	Won
Scroll airdrop by September 30?	Yes	$0	2.0¢	Lost
Berachain airdrop by September 30?	Yes	$4	2.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?	No	$351	89.0¢	Won
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$440	86.8¢	Won
Yahya Sinwar still Hamas leader by October 31?	Yes	$4	78.0¢	Lost
Will António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	No	$207	79.4¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.0k	50.2¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	No	$495	86.7¢	Won
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025?	No	$174	88.0¢	Won
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting?	Yes	$473	21.0¢	Won
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting?	Yes	$584	65.0¢	Lost
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?	No	$1.0k	86.1¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	No	$238	80.0¢	Lost
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?	No	$425	38.0¢	Lost
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?	No	$480	86.3¢	Won
Will Russia capture Toretsk before October?	No	$7	78.0¢	Won
Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) <$10b one day after launch?	Yes	$293	88.1¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	No	$32	80.0¢	Lost
Will Kamala say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" at debate?	Yes	$1	9.7¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?	Yes	$64	4.1¢	Lost
Will Kamala say "inflation" at debate?	Yes	$5	84.0¢	Won
Will Manchester United beat Crystal Palace?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will Trump say "abortion" at debate?	Yes	$9	83.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?	Yes	$262	88.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	No	$2.0k	76.6¢	Won
Over $20M committed to the Ranger public sale?	Yes	$91	83.1¢	Won
Will Crystal Palace beat Manchester United?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?	No	$736	65.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump say "border" 25 or more times during his North Carolina rally?	No	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	No	$57	87.4¢	Won
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Yes	$6	48.7¢	Lost
Farcaster airdrop by September 30?	Yes	$0	2.0¢	Lost
Will next reconciliation bill end taxes on tips in 2025?	Yes	$255	86.2¢	Won
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?	No	$459	77.0¢	Won
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?	No	$85	85.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$313	35.7¢	Won

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
Yes$432 @ 86.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?Won
No$400 @ 97.5¢
Will Kamala say "Project 2025" at debate?Won
Yes$4 @ 86.0¢
Will Fed cut interest rates 6+ times in 2024?Won
No$186 @ 88.1¢
Will Trump say "America first" during his inauguration speech?Won
Yes$1 @ 85.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?Won
No$1.7k @ 83.0¢
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" at debate?Lost
Yes$2 @ 13.0¢
Will Kamala say "Artificial Intelligence" at debate?Won
Yes$2 @ 34.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$130 @ 72.0¢
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Won
No$93 @ 76.0¢
Will Fed cut interest rates 3 times in 2024?Won
No$10 @ 72.0¢
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting?Won
No$989 @ 89.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$34 @ 23.0¢
Scroll airdrop by September 30?Won
No$28 @ 51.0¢
Scroll airdrop by September 30?Lost
Yes$0 @ 2.0¢
Berachain airdrop by September 30?Lost
Yes$4 @ 2.0¢
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?Won
No$351 @ 89.0¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
Yes$440 @ 86.8¢
Yahya Sinwar still Hamas leader by October 31?Lost
Yes$4 @ 78.0¢
Will António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?Lost
No$207 @ 79.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$1.0k @ 50.2¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?Won
No$495 @ 86.7¢
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025?Won
No$174 @ 88.0¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting?Won
Yes$473 @ 21.0¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting?Lost
Yes$584 @ 65.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?Won
No$1.0k @ 86.1¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Lost
No$238 @ 80.0¢
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?Lost
No$425 @ 38.0¢
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?Won
No$480 @ 86.3¢
Will Russia capture Toretsk before October?Won
No$7 @ 78.0¢
Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) <$10b one day after launch?Won
Yes$293 @ 88.1¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Lost
No$32 @ 80.0¢
Will Kamala say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" at debate?Lost
Yes$1 @ 9.7¢
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$64 @ 4.1¢
Will Kamala say "inflation" at debate?Won
Yes$5 @ 84.0¢
Will Manchester United beat Crystal Palace?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Trump say "abortion" at debate?Won
Yes$9 @ 83.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?Lost
Yes$262 @ 88.0¢
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Won
No$2.0k @ 76.6¢
Over $20M committed to the Ranger public sale?Won
Yes$91 @ 83.1¢
Will Crystal Palace beat Manchester United?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?Won
No$736 @ 65.0¢
Will Donald Trump say "border" 25 or more times during his North Carolina rally?Lost
No$0 @ 0.1¢
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?Won
No$57 @ 87.4¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Lost
Yes$6 @ 48.7¢
Farcaster airdrop by September 30?Lost
Yes$0 @ 2.0¢
Will next reconciliation bill end taxes on tips in 2025?Won
Yes$255 @ 86.2¢
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?Won
No$459 @ 77.0¢
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?Won
No$85 @ 85.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Won
Yes$313 @ 35.7¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$7.4k	87.8¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	No	$3.5k	88.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$660	87.1¢
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$605	86.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Politics	No	$9	91.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$9	91.0¢
Will Francis James Allison Oyague win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Politics	No	$5	95.4¢

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$7.4k @ 87.8¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
No$3.5k @ 88.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$660 @ 87.1¢
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Politics
Yes$605 @ 86.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
No$9 @ 91.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$9 @ 91.0¢
Will Francis James Allison Oyague win the next Lima mayoral elections?Politics
No$5 @ 95.4¢