0xd46b…5dab

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xd46be610a32e5c6ee094977e3caf9ab89c525dab
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+12.7pp

ROI

+17%

Win rate

61% @ 48.1¢

Brier

0.194

Resolved

5200

Avg size

$357

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	48% (315/661)	+24%	661
Politics	26% (16/62)	-58%	62
Sports	28% (5/18)	+20%	18
Geopolitics	56% (10/18)	-2%	18

Other661 bets
Hit rate
48% (315/661)
ROI
+24%
Politics62 bets
Hit rate
26% (16/62)
ROI
-58%
Sports18 bets
Hit rate
28% (5/18)
ROI
+20%
Geopolitics18 bets
Hit rate
56% (10/18)
ROI
-2%

Track record

46% hit · 346/759

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	$5.0k	83.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 6?	Yes	$1.5k	85.8¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?	Yes	$8.0k	90.9¢	Won
Miami (FL) vs. Notre Dame: O/U 58.5	Over	$153	51.0¢	Lost
Florida A&M vs. Miami (FL): O/U 58.5	Under	$100	30.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	$140	28.0¢	Lost
Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7?	Yes	$56	13.9¢	Lost
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance	Argentina	$50	38.5¢	Lost
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$10	37.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 1?	Yes	$515	89.5¢	Won
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	Yes	$48	9.7¢	Lost
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	No	$150	37.0¢	Lost
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	$48	9.7¢	Lost
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Yes	$25	8.0¢	Lost
2026 Balance of Power: Other	Yes	$48	9.7¢	Lost
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$50	28.0¢	Lost
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	$724	32.0¢	Lost
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$50	39.0¢	Lost
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	$359	36.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	$200	39.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	$17.7k	81.8¢	Won
Iran leadership change by October 31?	Yes	$50	2.3¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	$7.0k	78.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Yes	$171	20.9¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	$2.0k	90.1¢	Won
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by August 31?	No	$88	83.7¢	Won
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by August 31?	Yes	$422	36.7¢	Lost
Warriors vs. Hornets	Hornets	$20	16.0¢	Lost
Will SMU make the College Football Playoff?	Yes	$80	63.4¢	Won
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January?	Yes	$539	60.1¢	Won
Will Duke make the 2025 Final Four?	Yes	$164	54.3¢	Won
Israel military action against Iran in April?	Yes	$531	13.1¢	Lost
Israel strike on Iran on June 19?	Yes	$378	85.1¢	Won
Will Fear & Greed Index report "Extreme Fear" on March 31?	No	$10	73.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.8k	26.0¢	Lost
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 2025 Oscars?	Yes	$31	31.0¢	Lost
US-Saudi Arabia nuclear deal in 2025?	Yes	$470	76.0¢	Won
Will ICC withdraw its arrest warrant against Netanyahu before July?	Yes	$2.0k	27.2¢	Lost
Will Marc Gasol make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame?	Yes	$23	63.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?	Yes	$193	5.4¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?	No	$6.3k	55.0¢	Won
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?	Yes	$47.7k	62.1¢	Lost
Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025?	Yes	$20	2.5¢	Lost
Another Israel strike on Yemen in July?	Yes	$16.5k	65.7¢	Won
Will the US next strike Iran on January 30, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$13	5.2¢	Lost
Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?	Yes	$15.7k	29.4¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by next Friday?	No	$1.1k	79.0¢	Won
Will Xqc & PlaqueBoyMax Bart win Jynxzi's Rocket League tournament?	Yes	$46	25.8¢	Lost
Hawks vs. Grizzlies	Hawks	$20	25.0¢	Won
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?	Yes	$25.5k	35.8¢	Lost

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?Won
Yes$5.0k @ 83.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 6?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 85.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?Won
Yes$8.0k @ 90.9¢
Miami (FL) vs. Notre Dame: O/U 58.5Lost
Over$153 @ 51.0¢
Florida A&M vs. Miami (FL): O/U 58.5Lost
Under$100 @ 30.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Lost
No$140 @ 28.0¢
Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7?Lost
Yes$56 @ 13.9¢
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to AdvanceLost
Argentina$50 @ 38.5¢
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 37.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 1?Won
Yes$515 @ 89.5¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R HouseLost
Yes$48 @ 9.7¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseLost
No$150 @ 37.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseLost
Yes$48 @ 9.7¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseLost
Yes$25 @ 8.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: OtherLost
Yes$48 @ 9.7¢
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Lost
Yes$50 @ 28.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Lost
No$724 @ 32.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Lost
Yes$50 @ 39.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Lost
No$359 @ 36.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Won
No$200 @ 39.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Won
Yes$17.7k @ 81.8¢
Iran leadership change by October 31?Lost
Yes$50 @ 2.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Won
No$7.0k @ 78.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?Won
Yes$171 @ 20.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?Won
Yes$2.0k @ 90.1¢
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by August 31?Won
No$88 @ 83.7¢
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by August 31?Lost
Yes$422 @ 36.7¢
Warriors vs. HornetsLost
Hornets$20 @ 16.0¢
Will SMU make the College Football Playoff?Won
Yes$80 @ 63.4¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January?Won
Yes$539 @ 60.1¢
Will Duke make the 2025 Final Four?Won
Yes$164 @ 54.3¢
Israel military action against Iran in April?Lost
Yes$531 @ 13.1¢
Israel strike on Iran on June 19?Won
Yes$378 @ 85.1¢
Will Fear & Greed Index report "Extreme Fear" on March 31?Lost
No$10 @ 73.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.8k @ 26.0¢
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 2025 Oscars?Lost
Yes$31 @ 31.0¢
US-Saudi Arabia nuclear deal in 2025?Won
Yes$470 @ 76.0¢
Will ICC withdraw its arrest warrant against Netanyahu before July?Lost
Yes$2.0k @ 27.2¢
Will Marc Gasol make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame?Lost
Yes$23 @ 63.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?Lost
Yes$193 @ 5.4¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?Won
No$6.3k @ 55.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?Lost
Yes$47.7k @ 62.1¢
Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025?Lost
Yes$20 @ 2.5¢
Another Israel strike on Yemen in July?Won
Yes$16.5k @ 65.7¢
Will the US next strike Iran on January 30, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$13 @ 5.2¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?Lost
Yes$15.7k @ 29.4¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by next Friday?Won
No$1.1k @ 79.0¢
Will Xqc & PlaqueBoyMax Bart win Jynxzi's Rocket League tournament?Lost
Yes$46 @ 25.8¢
Hawks vs. GrizzliesWon
Hawks$20 @ 25.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?Lost
Yes$25.5k @ 35.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Geopolitics	Yes	$10.0k	74.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$7.0k	86.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	Geopolitics	Yes	$3.0k	76.6¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.1k	31.4¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Politics	Yes	$614	8.9¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$528	12.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	—	Yes	$475	0.4¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Politics	No	$466	38.8¢
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$424	34.9¢
Will Miami Hurricanes win the 2027 CFP National Championship?	Sports	Yes	$365	9.2¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$362	32.0¢
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through September 30?	Politics	No	$340	10.7¢
Will the Indiana Pacers make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?	Sports	Yes	$262	61.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?	—	Yes	$250	53.9¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$250	39.0¢
Will Ohio St. Make the 2026-27 CFB Playoffs?	—	No	$167	55.7¢
Miami (FL) vs. Notre Dame: O/U 58.5	Sports	Over	$153	51.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?	Politics	Yes	$150	3.6¢
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$139	22.3¢
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$100	7.3¢
Florida A&M vs. Miami (FL): O/U 58.5	—	Under	$100	30.0¢
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$93	4.0¢
Will the Denver Nuggets win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	Sports	Yes	$92	13.4¢
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	—	Yes	$80	22.9¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	—	Yes	$75	0.8¢
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?	Sports	Yes	$75	31.5¢
Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7?	—	Yes	$56	13.9¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Sports	Yes	$50	47.3¢
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance	—	Argentina	$50	38.5¢
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	—	Yes	$50	14.7¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Geopolitics
Yes$10.0k @ 74.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Geopolitics
Yes$7.0k @ 86.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?Geopolitics
Yes$3.0k @ 76.6¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$1.1k @ 31.4¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
Yes$614 @ 8.9¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$528 @ 12.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?—
Yes$475 @ 0.4¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
No$466 @ 38.8¢
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$424 @ 34.9¢
Will Miami Hurricanes win the 2027 CFP National Championship?Sports
Yes$365 @ 9.2¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$362 @ 32.0¢
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through September 30?Politics
No$340 @ 10.7¢
Will the Indiana Pacers make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?Sports
Yes$262 @ 61.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?—
Yes$250 @ 53.9¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Geopolitics
Yes$250 @ 39.0¢
Will Ohio St. Make the 2026-27 CFB Playoffs?—
No$167 @ 55.7¢
Miami (FL) vs. Notre Dame: O/U 58.5Sports
Over$153 @ 51.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?Politics
Yes$150 @ 3.6¢
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$139 @ 22.3¢
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$100 @ 7.3¢
Florida A&M vs. Miami (FL): O/U 58.5—
Under$100 @ 30.0¢
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$93 @ 4.0¢
Will the Denver Nuggets win the NBA Western Conference Finals?Sports
Yes$92 @ 13.4¢
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?—
Yes$80 @ 22.9¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?—
Yes$75 @ 0.8¢
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?Sports
Yes$75 @ 31.5¢
Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7?—
Yes$56 @ 13.9¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Sports
Yes$50 @ 47.3¢
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance—
Argentina$50 @ 38.5¢
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?—
Yes$50 @ 14.7¢