0xd414…a4db

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xd4140031e313f8d850740a80d2ee6653c925a4db
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.1pp

ROI

+22%

Win rate

36% @ 29.2¢

Brier

0.158

Resolved

953

Avg size

$170

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	36% (17/47)	+61%	47
Politics	34% (12/35)	+5%	35
Tech	33% (1/3)	-69%	3
Geopolitics	67% (2/3)	-37%	3
Crypto	100% (2/2)	+53%	2
Economy	100% (1/1)	+23%	1

Other47 bets
Hit rate
36% (17/47)
ROI
+61%
Politics35 bets
Hit rate
34% (12/35)
ROI
+5%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-69%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
-37%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+53%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+23%

Track record

38% hit · 35/91

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	No	$2	0.3¢	Lost
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	$286	81.1¢	Won
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between June 20 and June 26?	Yes	$3	0.2¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	No	$60	0.2¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$1.4k	37.1¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	$6.9k	79.8¢	Won
Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision?	No	$2.3k	31.3¢	Won
Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision?	Yes	$1.6k	16.8¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$15.2k	25.0¢	Lost
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?	No	$1.1k	9.0¢	Lost
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?	Yes	$1.6k	56.2¢	Won
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?	No	$445	78.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?	Yes	$42	4.5¢	Lost
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by June 30?	Yes	$4	3.1¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$4.1k	7.7¢	Lost
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair before May 15?	Yes	$1	0.4¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$4	0.4¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$40	15.4¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	$3	0.6¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	$536	80.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$1.9k	15.8¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$1.0k	63.7¢	Won
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$2	0.2¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?	Yes	$32	60.0¢	Won
Will anyone be kicked out of the WHCA Dinner?	Yes	$23	73.3¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	$10.1k	70.2¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	$957	37.6¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.4k	58.8¢	Won
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$9	0.8¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$4.2k	69.5¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$5.3k	26.1¢	Lost
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 30 and June 5?	Yes	$49	1.8¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	$385	33.9¢	Won
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	$161	0.1¢	Lost
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair after July 3?	Yes	$4	0.2¢	Lost
Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$20	1.3¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	$11	6.0¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	$8	47.0¢	Won
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	No	$354	70.5¢	Won
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	$14.7k	17.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$21.8k	35.8¢	Won
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	No	$1.3k	33.0¢	Lost
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	$74	7.5¢	Lost
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	$7.2k	89.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	$837	7.9¢	Lost
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	No	$20	3.3¢	Lost
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between June 27 and July 3?	Yes	$11	0.3¢	Lost
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$950	19.0¢	Lost
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between June 6 and June 12?	Yes	$17	1.2¢	Lost
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between June 13 and June 19?	Yes	$18	1.3¢	Lost

Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Lost
No$2 @ 0.3¢
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?Won
No$286 @ 81.1¢
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between June 20 and June 26?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.2¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Lost
No$60 @ 0.2¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 37.1¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Won
No$6.9k @ 79.8¢
Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision?Won
No$2.3k @ 31.3¢
Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision?Lost
Yes$1.6k @ 16.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$15.2k @ 25.0¢
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?Lost
No$1.1k @ 9.0¢
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?Won
Yes$1.6k @ 56.2¢
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?Won
No$445 @ 78.0¢
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?Lost
Yes$42 @ 4.5¢
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by June 30?Lost
Yes$4 @ 3.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$4.1k @ 7.7¢
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair before May 15?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.4¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.4¢
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$40 @ 15.4¢
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?Lost
No$3 @ 0.6¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Won
No$536 @ 80.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.9k @ 15.8¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$1.0k @ 63.7¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.2¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?Won
Yes$32 @ 60.0¢
Will anyone be kicked out of the WHCA Dinner?Won
Yes$23 @ 73.3¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Won
No$10.1k @ 70.2¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Lost
Yes$957 @ 37.6¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 58.8¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$9 @ 0.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$4.2k @ 69.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$5.3k @ 26.1¢
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 30 and June 5?Lost
Yes$49 @ 1.8¢
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?Won
No$385 @ 33.9¢
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?Lost
Yes$161 @ 0.1¢
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair after July 3?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.2¢
Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026?Won
Yes$20 @ 1.3¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Lost
No$11 @ 6.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Won
Yes$8 @ 47.0¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Won
No$354 @ 70.5¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Lost
Yes$14.7k @ 17.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$21.8k @ 35.8¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Lost
No$1.3k @ 33.0¢
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?Lost
No$74 @ 7.5¢
Will Trump visit China by May 15?Won
Yes$7.2k @ 89.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?Lost
Yes$837 @ 7.9¢
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?Lost
No$20 @ 3.3¢
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between June 27 and July 3?Lost
Yes$11 @ 0.3¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$950 @ 19.0¢
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between June 6 and June 12?Lost
Yes$17 @ 1.2¢
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between June 13 and June 19?Lost
Yes$18 @ 1.3¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Politics	No	$114	57.0¢
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Politics	No	$67	31.4¢
SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement?	Economy	Yes	$39	39.0¢
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$13	5.3¢
Will David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$9	59.1¢

Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics
No$114 @ 57.0¢
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics
No$67 @ 31.4¢
SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement?Economy
Yes$39 @ 39.0¢
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?Politics
Yes$13 @ 5.3¢
Will David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics
Yes$9 @ 59.1¢