0xd356…963d

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xd35694160b7bc6f734ab2e95072686aceb1a963d
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+13.8pp

ROI

+45%

Win rate

53% @ 39.0¢

Brier

0.209

Resolved

3682

Avg size

$17

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	56% (44/78)	+68%	78
Sports	24% (4/17)	-98%	17
Politics	40% (2/5)	-98%	5
Crypto	60% (3/5)	-9%	5
Science	100% (3/3)	+43%	3
Tech	50% (1/2)	-4%	2
Geopolitics	100% (2/2)	+20%	2

Other78 bets
Hit rate
56% (44/78)
ROI
+68%
Sports17 bets
Hit rate
24% (4/17)
ROI
-98%
Politics5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
-98%
Crypto5 bets
Hit rate
60% (3/5)
ROI
-9%
Science3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+43%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-4%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+20%

Track record

53% hit · 59/112

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	$12	89.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on October 2?	No	$12	62.0¢	Won
Will the match end in a draw?	No	$12	75.0¢	Lost
Will India A win?	Yes	$12	59.0¢	Lost
Will Atlanta Braves advance to the NLDS in the 2026 MLB Playoffs?	Yes	$12	65.0¢	Won
Will Philadelphia Phillies advance to the NLDS in the 2026 MLB Playoffs?	Yes	$12	40.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 September 28-October 4?	Yes	$12	63.0¢	Won
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 18, 2026?	Yes	$35	48.6¢	Lost
Will China’s CPI increase by at least 0.9% over the 12 month period ending in August 2026?	Yes	$12	13.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on September 29?	No	$12	65.0¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$4.7k	72.2¢	Won
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 13, 2026?	Yes	$50	42.1¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	Yes	$75	22.7¢	Won
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25?	Yes	$105	34.9¢	Won
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 19, 2026?	Yes	$30	50.6¢	Lost
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	$12	6.5¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?	Yes	$12	37.0¢	Lost
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$898	40.8¢	Lost
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by September 30?	No	$5	87.0¢	Won
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?	Yes	$5	43.0¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 19, 2026?	Yes	$15	46.3¢	Won
Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$12	41.0¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	$1.1k	34.5¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$1.1k	18.3¢	Won
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 14, 2026?	Yes	$10	44.0¢	Won
Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea?	No	$12	39.7¢	Won
Will New York Yankees advance to the ALDS in the 2026 MLB Playoffs?	Yes	$12	87.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 13?	No	$6	44.0¢	Lost
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	$40	17.0¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 17, 2026?	Yes	$35	53.6¢	Won
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$815	59.3¢	Won
Government shutdown on Saturday?	Yes	$5	85.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in September?	No	$12	70.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	Yes	$261	35.1¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August?	Yes	$12	8.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on September 30?	No	$12	68.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	$12	82.0¢	Won
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	$1.1k	39.0¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	Yes	$3.3k	58.5¢	Won
Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 30 minutes long?	Yes	$5	26.0¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	$5.2k	25.4¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the February Meeting?	Yes	$88	38.4¢	Lost
US expels a Brazilian diplomat by September 30?	Yes	$12	10.0¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	Yes	$618	24.4¢	Lost
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-02-22?	Yes	$25	38.0¢	Lost
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-24?	Yes	$70	67.5¢	Won
Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$12	52.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on October 1?	No	$12	65.0¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	Yes	$849	20.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on August 21?	No	$12	75.0¢	Won

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?Won
No$12 @ 89.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on October 2?Won
No$12 @ 62.0¢
Will the match end in a draw?Lost
No$12 @ 75.0¢
Will India A win?Lost
Yes$12 @ 59.0¢
Will Atlanta Braves advance to the NLDS in the 2026 MLB Playoffs?Won
Yes$12 @ 65.0¢
Will Philadelphia Phillies advance to the NLDS in the 2026 MLB Playoffs?Lost
Yes$12 @ 40.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 September 28-October 4?Won
Yes$12 @ 63.0¢
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 18, 2026?Lost
Yes$35 @ 48.6¢
Will China’s CPI increase by at least 0.9% over the 12 month period ending in August 2026?Lost
Yes$12 @ 13.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on September 29?Won
No$12 @ 65.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$4.7k @ 72.2¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 13, 2026?Lost
Yes$50 @ 42.1¢
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Won
Yes$75 @ 22.7¢
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25?Won
Yes$105 @ 34.9¢
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 19, 2026?Lost
Yes$30 @ 50.6¢
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's US Open?Lost
Yes$12 @ 6.5¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?Lost
Yes$12 @ 37.0¢
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$898 @ 40.8¢
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by September 30?Won
No$5 @ 87.0¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 43.0¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 19, 2026?Won
Yes$15 @ 46.3¢
Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$12 @ 41.0¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 34.5¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 18.3¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 14, 2026?Won
Yes$10 @ 44.0¢
Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea?Won
No$12 @ 39.7¢
Will New York Yankees advance to the ALDS in the 2026 MLB Playoffs?Won
Yes$12 @ 87.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 13?Lost
No$6 @ 44.0¢
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?Lost
Yes$40 @ 17.0¢
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 17, 2026?Won
Yes$35 @ 53.6¢
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$815 @ 59.3¢
Government shutdown on Saturday?Lost
Yes$5 @ 85.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in September?Won
No$12 @ 70.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Won
Yes$261 @ 35.1¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August?Lost
Yes$12 @ 8.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on September 30?Lost
No$12 @ 68.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Won
Yes$12 @ 82.0¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 39.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Won
Yes$3.3k @ 58.5¢
Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 30 minutes long?Lost
Yes$5 @ 26.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Lost
Yes$5.2k @ 25.4¢
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the February Meeting?Lost
Yes$88 @ 38.4¢
US expels a Brazilian diplomat by September 30?Lost
Yes$12 @ 10.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?Lost
Yes$618 @ 24.4¢
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-02-22?Lost
Yes$25 @ 38.0¢
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-24?Won
Yes$70 @ 67.5¢
Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$12 @ 52.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on October 1?Won
No$12 @ 65.0¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Won
Yes$849 @ 20.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on August 21?Won
No$12 @ 75.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?	Tech	Yes	$165	24.1¢
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Science	Yes	$87	16.4¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$60	16.1¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$45	20.0¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$45	19.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$45	21.0¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$31	16.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$25	39.0¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$18	38.6¢
Will Marina Silva win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?	Politics	No	$12	88.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$12	45.0¢
Will Ulises Mejía Haro win the 2027 Zacatecas Governor Election?	Politics	No	$12	63.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?	Politics	Yes	$12	35.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$12	56.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$12	41.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Other	No	$12	76.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in October?	Other	No	$12	39.0¢
Will Benedita da Silva win the most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?	Politics	No	$12	58.0¢
Will St. Louis City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup?	Sports	Yes	$12	6.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Politics	Yes	$12	8.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$12	10.0¢
Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027?	Tech	No	$12	15.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$12	16.0¢
Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$12	24.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 September 28-October 4?	Crypto	Yes	$12	30.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	Politics	No	$12	50.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$12	64.0¢
Will PPI YoY be 5.9% or more in September?	Economy	No	$12	75.0¢
Will Rachel peak at Category 3?	Science	No	$12	80.0¢
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Politics	No	$12	80.0¢

Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?Tech
Yes$165 @ 24.1¢
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Science
Yes$87 @ 16.4¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Politics
Yes$60 @ 16.1¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics
Yes$45 @ 20.0¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$45 @ 19.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
Yes$45 @ 21.0¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
Yes$31 @ 16.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$25 @ 39.0¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$18 @ 38.6¢
Will Marina Silva win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?Politics
No$12 @ 88.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$12 @ 45.0¢
Will Ulises Mejía Haro win the 2027 Zacatecas Governor Election?Politics
No$12 @ 63.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?Politics
Yes$12 @ 35.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$12 @ 56.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$12 @ 41.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?Other
No$12 @ 76.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in October?Other
No$12 @ 39.0¢
Will Benedita da Silva win the most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?Politics
No$12 @ 58.0¢
Will St. Louis City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup?Sports
Yes$12 @ 6.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
Yes$12 @ 8.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$12 @ 10.0¢
Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027?Tech
No$12 @ 15.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$12 @ 16.0¢
Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$12 @ 24.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 September 28-October 4?Crypto
Yes$12 @ 30.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Politics
No$12 @ 50.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat?Politics
Yes$12 @ 64.0¢
Will PPI YoY be 5.9% or more in September?Economy
No$12 @ 75.0¢
Will Rachel peak at Category 3?Science
No$12 @ 80.0¢
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Politics
No$12 @ 80.0¢