0xd324…b23c

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xd324e20e3462d859a2913c5bfd162ed7f9aeb23c
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+11.1pp

ROI

+20%

Win rate

54% @ 42.5¢

Brier

0.188

Resolved

1487

Avg size

$37

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	40% (42/105)	+19%	105
Politics	47% (17/36)	-5%	36
Geopolitics	33% (4/12)	-16%	12
Sports	100% (1/1)	+72%	1

Other105 bets
Hit rate
40% (42/105)
ROI
+19%
Politics36 bets
Hit rate
47% (17/36)
ROI
-5%
Geopolitics12 bets
Hit rate
33% (4/12)
ROI
-16%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+72%

Track record

42% hit · 64/154

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?	No	$33	66.0¢	Won
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	No	$536	87.3¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	$10	5.0¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$395	57.2¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$1.6k	30.6¢	Won
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	No	$35	14.0¢	Won
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	$87	87.0¢	Lost
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 6?	Yes	$10	29.9¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	No	$156	78.0¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	Yes	$60	11.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?	Yes	$180	21.1¢	Lost
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	No	$154	7.3¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	Yes	$71	29.8¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$205	31.2¢	Won
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?	Yes	$2	10.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?	Yes	$337	72.6¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?	Yes	$258	79.8¢	Won
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?	Yes	$40	4.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Yes	$1.6k	42.2¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Yes	$200	17.1¢	Lost
Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?	Yes	$103	14.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	No	$933	66.7¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	Yes	$583	24.3¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	No	$804	69.9¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?	Yes	$50	1.0¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$32	4.6¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	$53	32.7¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	$453	42.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$1.3k	62.8¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	Yes	$72	3.9¢	Lost
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	$124	34.3¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	No	$175	32.7¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	Yes	$599	29.7¢	Won
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	$685	40.2¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	No	$1.1k	66.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	Yes	$1.2k	21.0¢	Lost
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	No	$370	70.6¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?	No	$175	44.2¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?	Yes	$191	24.9¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in July?	No	$421	47.3¢	Lost
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$109	12.1¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	No	$260	66.7¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	Yes	$633	23.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$1.8k	45.9¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$2.5k	32.6¢	Won
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$50	58.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$1.7k	71.6¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Yes	$1.1k	41.8¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by July 27?	No	$40	69.3¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 27?	Yes	$171	18.0¢	Lost

Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?Won
No$33 @ 66.0¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Won
No$536 @ 87.3¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Lost
Yes$10 @ 5.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$395 @ 57.2¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$1.6k @ 30.6¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Won
No$35 @ 14.0¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Lost
Yes$87 @ 87.0¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 6?Lost
Yes$10 @ 29.9¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Won
No$156 @ 78.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Lost
Yes$60 @ 11.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?Lost
Yes$180 @ 21.1¢
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$154 @ 7.3¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Lost
Yes$71 @ 29.8¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
Yes$205 @ 31.2¢
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 10.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?Won
Yes$337 @ 72.6¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?Won
Yes$258 @ 79.8¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?Lost
Yes$40 @ 4.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Won
Yes$1.6k @ 42.2¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Lost
Yes$200 @ 17.1¢
Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?Lost
Yes$103 @ 14.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Won
No$933 @ 66.7¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$583 @ 24.3¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Won
No$804 @ 69.9¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?Lost
Yes$50 @ 1.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
Yes$32 @ 4.6¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Lost
No$53 @ 32.7¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Won
Yes$453 @ 42.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$1.3k @ 62.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?Lost
Yes$72 @ 3.9¢
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?Lost
Yes$124 @ 34.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?Lost
No$175 @ 32.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?Won
Yes$599 @ 29.7¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Lost
Yes$685 @ 40.2¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Won
No$1.1k @ 66.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 21.0¢
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Won
No$370 @ 70.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?Won
No$175 @ 44.2¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?Lost
Yes$191 @ 24.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in July?Lost
No$421 @ 47.3¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$109 @ 12.1¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Won
No$260 @ 66.7¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Lost
Yes$633 @ 23.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$1.8k @ 45.9¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$2.5k @ 32.6¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$50 @ 58.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
No$1.7k @ 71.6¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 41.8¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 27?Won
No$40 @ 69.3¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 27?Lost
Yes$171 @ 18.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$270	84.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	—	Yes	$200	78.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?	—	Yes	$184	95.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	—	No	$172	40.9¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$150	87.9¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	—	No	$140	67.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	—	No	$120	60.8¢
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	—	No	$100	76.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	—	Yes	$73	86.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$70	89.9¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	—	No	$70	77.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	—	Yes	$40	31.6¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	—	No	$30	61.0¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$16	79.3¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	—	No	$15	73.2¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	—	No	$13	80.8¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	—	Yes	$11	53.0¢
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	No	$10	77.7¢
Iran leadership change by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$4	1.2¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$270 @ 84.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?—
Yes$200 @ 78.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?—
Yes$184 @ 95.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?—
No$172 @ 40.9¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?—
No$150 @ 87.9¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?—
No$140 @ 67.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?—
No$120 @ 60.8¢
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?—
No$100 @ 76.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?—
Yes$73 @ 86.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?—
No$70 @ 89.9¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?—
No$70 @ 77.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?—
Yes$40 @ 31.6¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?—
No$30 @ 61.0¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$16 @ 79.3¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?—
No$15 @ 73.2¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?—
No$13 @ 80.8¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?—
Yes$11 @ 53.0¢
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
No$10 @ 77.7¢
Iran leadership change by September 30?Politics
Yes$4 @ 1.2¢