0xd286…2322

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xd286b6c35efc7fada932e4b0d6ce9ffc2bcf2322
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+22.7pp

ROI

+43%

Win rate

67% @ 44.0¢

Brier

0.187

Resolved

204

Avg size

$115

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	50% (10/20)	-47%	20
Politics	33% (2/6)	+88%	6
Sports	75% (3/4)	+26%	4
Tech	50% (1/2)	+127%	2
Crypto	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other20 bets
Hit rate
50% (10/20)
ROI
-47%
Politics6 bets
Hit rate
33% (2/6)
ROI
+88%
Sports4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
+26%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+127%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

48% hit · 16/33

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs fnatic (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #4 Playoffs	SPARTA	$151	71.2¢	Won
LoL: Team Vitality vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season	Team Vitality	$275	89.0¢	Won
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$947	67.1¢	Won
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?	Yes	$185	62.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?	Yes	$73	13.2¢	Lost
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	$152	64.0¢	Won
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs REKONIX (BO3) - 1win Essence Group B	REKONIX	$163	81.8¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$549	0.4¢	Lost
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Angels	$431	79.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	No	$90	0.5¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	$390	5.3¢	Lost
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger China Playoffs	Yakult Brothers	$98	51.1¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: TDK vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Group Stage	INOX Division	$249	86.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$731	4.4¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs GenOne (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group C	GenOne	$363	56.2¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	$1.5k	69.1¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	$319	6.4¢	Lost
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS - Game 2 Winner	LOS	$195	61.0¢	Lost
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha	Global Esports	$226	74.0¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	$454	4.7¢	Lost
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	Bilibili Gaming	$131	82.9¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	$9.7k	42.3¢	Won
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs DetonatioN FocusMe (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omega	DetonatioN FocusMe	$213	51.9¢	Lost
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	$253	58.0¢	Won
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	Kiwoom DRX	$1.1k	73.0¢	Won
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	$299	77.0¢	Lost
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	$104	5.5¢	Lost
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Regular Season	Fnatic	$101	68.0¢	Won
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?	Yes	$26	23.0¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	$2.9k	11.9¢	Lost
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Team Secret Whales (BO3) - LCP Regular Season	Team Secret Whales	$276	83.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	Yes	$397	35.0¢	Won
Will Venezuela become 51st state?	Yes	$666	6.0¢	Lost

Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs fnatic (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #4 PlayoffsWon
SPARTA$151 @ 71.2¢
LoL: Team Vitality vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular SeasonWon
Team Vitality$275 @ 89.0¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$947 @ 67.1¢
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?Won
Yes$185 @ 62.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?Lost
Yes$73 @ 13.2¢
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?Won
Yes$152 @ 64.0¢
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs REKONIX (BO3) - 1win Essence Group BLost
REKONIX$163 @ 81.8¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$549 @ 0.4¢
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles AngelsWon
Los Angeles Angels$431 @ 79.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Lost
No$90 @ 0.5¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Lost
No$390 @ 5.3¢
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger China PlayoffsLost
Yakult Brothers$98 @ 51.1¢
Counter-Strike: TDK vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Group StageWon
INOX Division$249 @ 86.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$731 @ 4.4¢
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs GenOne (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group CLost
GenOne$363 @ 56.2¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Won
No$1.5k @ 69.1¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?Lost
Yes$319 @ 6.4¢
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS - Game 2 WinnerLost
LOS$195 @ 61.0¢
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group AlphaWon
Global Esports$226 @ 74.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Lost
Yes$454 @ 4.7¢
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group AscendWon
Bilibili Gaming$131 @ 82.9¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Won
Yes$9.7k @ 42.3¢
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs DetonatioN FocusMe (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group OmegaLost
DetonatioN FocusMe$213 @ 51.9¢
Will England win on 2026-06-17?Won
Yes$253 @ 58.0¢
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2Won
Kiwoom DRX$1.1k @ 73.0¢
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?Lost
Yes$299 @ 77.0¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$104 @ 5.5¢
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Regular SeasonWon
Fnatic$101 @ 68.0¢
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?Lost
Yes$26 @ 23.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?Lost
Yes$2.9k @ 11.9¢
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Team Secret Whales (BO3) - LCP Regular SeasonWon
Team Secret Whales$276 @ 83.0¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Won
Yes$397 @ 35.0¢
Will Venezuela become 51st state?Lost
Yes$666 @ 6.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	—	Yes	$4.4k	25.5¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$1.7k	45.2¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$860	25.1¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$556	6.1¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$250	8.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?	—	Yes	$199	2.6¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?	—	Yes	$90	2.8¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$62	14.5¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	—	Yes	$33	4.3¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$3	16.1¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2	28.7¢
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$2	2.5¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$1	18.7¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Science	Yes	$0	8.0¢
Will Venezuela become 51st state?	Politics	Yes	$0	6.0¢

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?—
Yes$4.4k @ 25.5¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?—
Yes$1.7k @ 45.2¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$860 @ 25.1¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?—
Yes$556 @ 6.1¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$250 @ 8.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?—
Yes$199 @ 2.6¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?—
Yes$90 @ 2.8¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$62 @ 14.5¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?—
Yes$33 @ 4.3¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$3 @ 16.1¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Politics
Yes$2 @ 28.7¢
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$2 @ 2.5¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$1 @ 18.7¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Science
Yes$0 @ 8.0¢
Will Venezuela become 51st state?Politics
Yes$0 @ 6.0¢