0xd140…810d

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xd140a1b39faa01e17928584a7b2590468daa810d
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.3pp

ROI

+12%

Win rate

65% @ 56.4¢

Brier

0.173

Resolved

703

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	61% (202/333)	+13%	333
Politics	63% (17/27)	+10%	27
Geopolitics	81% (13/16)	+28%	16
Sports	20% (1/5)	-78%	5
Tech	100% (1/1)	+33%	1

Other333 bets
Hit rate
61% (202/333)
ROI
+13%
Politics27 bets
Hit rate
63% (17/27)
ROI
+10%
Geopolitics16 bets
Hit rate
81% (13/16)
ROI
+28%
Sports5 bets
Hit rate
20% (1/5)
ROI
-78%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+33%

Track record

61% hit · 234/382

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?	No	$19	81.6¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?	No	$4	89.0¢	Won
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?	No	$10	64.0¢	Won
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Edition	No	$19	87.0¢	Won
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Edition	Yes	$12	49.2¢	Lost
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be 1500.00 or higher on December 31 2025?	No	$21	29.7¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$3	43.0¢	Won
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	$2	5.6¢	Lost
Israel strike on Iran on June 19?	Yes	$5	77.4¢	Won
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by March 31?	No	$2	74.9¢	Won
Hezbollah strike on Israel by December 31?	No	$4	46.4¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on November 11?	No	$2	50.5¢	Lost
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	No	$2	22.0¢	Lost
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	Yes	$0	3.0¢	Won
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 1?	No	$2	25.0¢	Won
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 1?	Yes	$6	65.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?	Yes	$6	49.1¢	Lost
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in August?	No	$7	73.0¢	Lost
Another Israel strike on Yemen in July?	Yes	$4	83.0¢	Won
Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $200 end of November?	Yes	$1	35.0¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?	No	$4	84.0¢	Won
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?	No	$3	6.9¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the March decision?	No	$8	86.0¢	Won
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the March decision?	Yes	$12	63.9¢	Lost
Will Meta (META) finish week of November 10 above $590?	No	$3	22.0¢	Lost
Will Meta (META) finish week of November 10 above $590?	Yes	$10	79.0¢	Won
Bitcoin ETF Flows on November 24?	Positive	$6	76.4¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?	Yes	$3	81.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	No	$10	89.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102,000 on November 1?	Yes	$4	88.0¢	Lost
Will Netanyahu be pardoned in 2025?	No	$25	84.1¢	Won
Iran strike on Qatar today?	Yes	$3	64.7¢	Won
Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?	No	$7	77.0¢	Won
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Yes	$2	6.0¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Syria on July 20?	No	$5	47.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$7	18.8¢	Lost
Ethereum ETF Flows on October 21?	Negative	$0	20.0¢	Lost
Ethereum ETF Flows on October 21?	Positive	$1	20.0¢	Won
Ethereum ETF Flows on November 24?	Positive	$0	60.0¢	Won
GOP wins popular vote by less than 1.5%?	Yes	$13	62.6¢	Won
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?	No	$3	52.6¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?	No	$4	8.0¢	Lost
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be between 1325.00 and 1349.99 on December 31 2025?	Yes	$2	10.0¢	Lost
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	No	$18	78.3¢	Won
Israel strike on Iran on June 27?	No	$6	85.9¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on October 26?	Yes	$4	88.0¢	Won
Will the US add between 100k and 149k jobs in June?	Yes	$6	61.0¢	Won
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30?	No	$5	55.0¢	Won
Will Israel strike Syria on July 17?	No	$11	86.1¢	Won
Europe World Cup Qualifiers Parlay	No	$3	60.0¢	Won

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?Lost
No$19 @ 81.6¢
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?Won
No$4 @ 89.0¢
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?Won
No$10 @ 64.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel EditionWon
No$19 @ 87.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel EditionLost
Yes$12 @ 49.2¢
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be 1500.00 or higher on December 31 2025?Won
No$21 @ 29.7¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$3 @ 43.0¢
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025?Lost
Yes$2 @ 5.6¢
Israel strike on Iran on June 19?Won
Yes$5 @ 77.4¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by March 31?Won
No$2 @ 74.9¢
Hezbollah strike on Israel by December 31?Won
No$4 @ 46.4¢
Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on November 11?Lost
No$2 @ 50.5¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?Lost
No$2 @ 22.0¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?Won
Yes$0 @ 3.0¢
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 1?Won
No$2 @ 25.0¢
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 1?Lost
Yes$6 @ 65.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?Lost
Yes$6 @ 49.1¢
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in August?Lost
No$7 @ 73.0¢
Another Israel strike on Yemen in July?Won
Yes$4 @ 83.0¢
Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $200 end of November?Lost
Yes$1 @ 35.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?Won
No$4 @ 84.0¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Lost
No$3 @ 6.9¢
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the March decision?Won
No$8 @ 86.0¢
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the March decision?Lost
Yes$12 @ 63.9¢
Will Meta (META) finish week of November 10 above $590?Lost
No$3 @ 22.0¢
Will Meta (META) finish week of November 10 above $590?Won
Yes$10 @ 79.0¢
Bitcoin ETF Flows on November 24?Lost
Positive$6 @ 76.4¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?Lost
Yes$3 @ 81.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Won
No$10 @ 89.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102,000 on November 1?Lost
Yes$4 @ 88.0¢
Will Netanyahu be pardoned in 2025?Won
No$25 @ 84.1¢
Iran strike on Qatar today?Won
Yes$3 @ 64.7¢
Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?Won
No$7 @ 77.0¢
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 6.0¢
Will Israel strike Syria on July 20?Won
No$5 @ 47.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$7 @ 18.8¢
Ethereum ETF Flows on October 21?Lost
Negative$0 @ 20.0¢
Ethereum ETF Flows on October 21?Won
Positive$1 @ 20.0¢
Ethereum ETF Flows on November 24?Won
Positive$0 @ 60.0¢
GOP wins popular vote by less than 1.5%?Won
Yes$13 @ 62.6¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?Won
No$3 @ 52.6¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?Lost
No$4 @ 8.0¢
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be between 1325.00 and 1349.99 on December 31 2025?Lost
Yes$2 @ 10.0¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Won
No$18 @ 78.3¢
Israel strike on Iran on June 27?Won
No$6 @ 85.9¢
Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on October 26?Won
Yes$4 @ 88.0¢
Will the US add between 100k and 149k jobs in June?Won
Yes$6 @ 61.0¢
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30?Won
No$5 @ 55.0¢
Will Israel strike Syria on July 17?Won
No$11 @ 86.1¢
Europe World Cup Qualifiers ParlayWon
No$3 @ 60.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$203	86.3¢
Will Otzma Yehudit win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Politics	No	$65	93.1¢
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Politics	No	$46	85.8¢
Will Noam be in the next Israeli government?	Politics	No	$30	92.2¢
Will Yisrael Beiteinu win less than 5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Politics	No	$26	75.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$19	82.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Geopolitics	Yes	$18	86.2¢
Israel election: will Likud lose seats?	Politics	Yes	$11	56.0¢
Will Amcha Yisrael win 2.5-3.25% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Politics	Yes	$9	21.4¢
Will Amcha Yisrael win 3.25-4% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Politics	Yes	$7	35.0¢
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Politics	Yes	$7	29.0¢
Will Elon register any party before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$0	7.0¢

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$203 @ 86.3¢
Will Otzma Yehudit win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics
No$65 @ 93.1¢
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics
No$46 @ 85.8¢
Will Noam be in the next Israeli government?Politics
No$30 @ 92.2¢
Will Yisrael Beiteinu win less than 5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?Politics
No$26 @ 75.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$19 @ 82.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?Geopolitics
Yes$18 @ 86.2¢
Israel election: will Likud lose seats?Politics
Yes$11 @ 56.0¢
Will Amcha Yisrael win 2.5-3.25% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?Politics
Yes$9 @ 21.4¢
Will Amcha Yisrael win 3.25-4% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?Politics
Yes$7 @ 35.0¢
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics
Yes$7 @ 29.0¢
Will Elon register any party before 2027?Politics
Yes$0 @ 7.0¢