0xd12f…e85a

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Other175 bets

  Hit rate

  45% (79/175)

  ROI

  +23%

• Politics75 bets

  Hit rate

  29% (22/75)

  ROI

  +15%

• Tech43 bets

  Hit rate

  35% (15/43)

  ROI

  -4%

• Sports23 bets

  Hit rate

  22% (5/23)

  ROI

  -42%

• Geopolitics21 bets

  Hit rate

  19% (4/21)

  ROI

  +16%

• Economy8 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/8)

  ROI

  -100%

• Culture6 bets

  Hit rate

  17% (1/6)

  ROI

  +79%

• Crypto2 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (1/2)

  ROI

  -94%

• Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $13.5B by September 30?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 2.9¢
• Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?Lost
  Yes$58 @ 66.9¢
• Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $5.75 (HIGH) by May 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$88 @ 38.0¢
• Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 0.4¢
• Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?Lost
  No$10 @ 12.0¢
• Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?Won
  Yes$292 @ 52.2¢
• Will Jorge Bom Jesus win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?Won
  No$1.3k @ 61.9¢
• Will Jorge Bom Jesus win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?Lost
  Yes$4 @ 4.0¢
• Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?Won
  No$20 @ 76.0¢
• Will voter turnout be between 85% and 90% in the 2026 Maltese general election?Won
  Yes$87 @ 58.0¢
• Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?Lost
  No$12 @ 39.0¢
• Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on June 30, 2026?Won
  No$2.9k @ 83.7¢
• Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on June 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$12 @ 13.0¢
• Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $780b and $800b on June 30?Lost
  Yes$2 @ 0.1¢
• E. Jean Carroll federally charged by July 31, 2026?Won
  No$56 @ 64.9¢
• Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly four nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?Lost
  Yes$0 @ 1.8¢
• Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $75B by July 31?Won
  No$1.0k @ 87.2¢
• Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
  Yes$12 @ 23.0¢
• Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Lost
  Yes$40 @ 40.0¢
• Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Lost
  Yes$14 @ 0.8¢
• Will Meta have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?Lost
  Yes$10 @ 1.2¢
• Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-04-17?Lost
  Yes$13 @ 42.0¢
• Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
  Yes$63 @ 18.3¢
• Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?Lost
  No$0 @ 0.1¢
• Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
  Yes$30 @ 27.9¢
• Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $3.90 (HIGH) by May 31, 2026?Lost
  No$0 @ 0.1¢
• Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by July 31?Won
  No$699 @ 88.6¢
• Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?Won
  Yes$1.3k @ 86.9¢
• Will the Green Party win at least 900 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Won
  No$24 @ 64.4¢
• Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the May decision?Lost
  No$0 @ 2.0¢
• Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?Lost
  No$2 @ 1.1¢
• Will SpaceX raise between $60B and $70B in its IPO?Lost
  Yes$15 @ 0.8¢
• Will Manchester City finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?Won
  Yes$41 @ 51.6¢
• Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?Lost
  Yes$21 @ 8.9¢
• Jay Clayton confirmed as Director of National Intelligence by December 31?Won
  Yes$86 @ 82.6¢
• Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 0% and 2% in May?Lost
  Yes$13 @ 10.5¢
• FDA approves Elevar Therapeutics' Rivoceranib + camrelizumab?Won
  No$159 @ 81.4¢
• FDA approves Elevar Therapeutics' Rivoceranib + camrelizumab?Lost
  Yes$0 @ 28.0¢
• Will the Labour Party win the second-most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Lost
  No$24 @ 80.0¢
• Will the Labour Party win the second-most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Won
  Yes$30 @ 21.6¢
• Will Reform UK win at least 1800 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Lost
  Yes$32 @ 29.0¢
• FDA approves Camurus' Oclaiz?Lost
  Yes$113 @ 43.2¢
• Will La-Z-Boy (LZB) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
  No$37 @ 20.4¢
• Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Lost
  No$309 @ 51.0¢
• Will Axel Conradi be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Stockholm?Lost
  Yes$13 @ 8.2¢
• Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?Lost
  Yes$4 @ 2.1¢
• Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by July 31?Won
  No$848 @ 85.8¢
• Will Tête de femme by Picasso sell for $47M or more?Lost
  No$3 @ 0.1¢
• Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?Won
  Yes$392 @ 80.1¢
• Will Marseille finish in the top 4 of the Ligue 1 2025–26 standings?Won
  No$105 @ 89.6¢

Current positions

• Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
  Yes$3.9k @ 42.7¢
• Will Teddy Riner be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
  No$1.3k @ 94.9¢
• Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?Politics
  Yes$814 @ 75.0¢
• Will Pablo Picasso be #1 in global fine art auction turnover for 2026?Culture
  Yes$660 @ 77.1¢
• National Rally forms a French Senate Group in 2026?Politics
  Yes$600 @ 98.6¢
• Will Michel Barnier advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?Politics
  No$468 @ 97.3¢
• Will Gérald Darmanin advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?Politics
  No$457 @ 96.9¢
• Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by October 15, 2026?Tech
  Yes$379 @ 72.2¢
• 2027 French Presidential Election: Knafo or Zemmour for Reconquête?Politics
  Zemmour$314 @ 85.6¢
• Will Yaël Braun-Pivet advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?Politics
  No$312 @ 97.6¢
• Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
  Yes$150 @ 50.1¢
• Will Les Républicains hold 129-132 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?Politics
  No$148 @ 91.0¢
• Will Union Centriste hold 53-55 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?Politics
  No$144 @ 69.8¢
• Will Bernard Cazeneuve advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?Politics
  No$144 @ 96.2¢
• Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz before 2027?Politics
  No$143 @ 82.5¢
• Will Heidi Overton be confirmed as FDA Commissioner by October 31?Politics
  No$136 @ 73.2¢
• Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?Politics
  Yes$129 @ 7.3¢
• Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by October 31, 2026?Tech
  Yes$123 @ 86.3¢
• California Higher Local Tax Vote Threshold PropositionPolitics
  No$112 @ 43.1¢
• Will François Bayrou advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?Politics
  No$109 @ 95.9¢
• Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by December 31?Tech
  Yes$106 @ 20.4¢
• Will Markus Allard be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Örebro County?Politics
  No$101 @ 90.6¢
• Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026?Tech
  No$83 @ 46.4¢
• Will Alex Pretti rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Passings of 2026?Tech
  No$81 @ 84.0¢
• Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between thirteen and fifteen nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?Politics
  Yes$78 @ 7.2¢
• Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?Science
  No$73 @ 92.2¢
• Luigi Mangione tried before 2027?Politics
  Yes$63 @ 62.5¢
• Will Lateefah Simon win the CA-12 House seat?Politics
  Yes$59 @ 92.2¢
• Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?Politics
  No$54 @ 89.1¢
• Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?Politics
  Yes$52 @ 20.6¢