0xd08e…2f7c

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xd08e8f5efb47d9ff61c30e9c8546f82f7f2a2f7c
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.2pp

ROI

+40%

Win rate

42% @ 36.3¢

Brier

0.164

Resolved

1531

Avg size

$126

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	33% (85/261)	+53%	261
Politics	23% (9/40)	-41%	40
Geopolitics	6% (2/31)	-85%	31

Other261 bets
Hit rate
33% (85/261)
ROI
+53%
Politics40 bets
Hit rate
23% (9/40)
ROI
-41%
Geopolitics31 bets
Hit rate
6% (2/31)
ROI
-85%

Track record

29% hit · 96/332

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?	No	$200	14.1¢	Lost
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before August?	Yes	$14	14.0¢	Lost
Israel strike on Damascus by September 30?	Yes	$113	48.0¢	Lost
Israel military action against Iran in April?	Yes	$287	9.8¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?	No	$342	60.1¢	Won
Another Israel strike on Yemen in July?	Yes	$696	76.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?	Yes	$1	30.0¢	Won
Will France strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$30	8.7¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	$416	11.7¢	Lost
Iran strike on Qatar today?	No	$50	32.4¢	Lost
Iran strike on Qatar today?	Yes	$100	36.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	Yes	$100	1.8¢	Lost
Another Israel military action on Yemen in May?	No	$100	9.4¢	Lost
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	$194	61.5¢	Won
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$274	19.7¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$5	0.7¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump attend Pope Francis' funeral?	No	$12	2.3¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?	Yes	$1	42.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?	No	$100	2.8¢	Lost
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026?	Yes	$200	66.7¢	Lost
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Yes	$11	24.3¢	Lost
Israel strike on Damascus by August 31?	Yes	$100	16.4¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	$50	33.0¢	Lost
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 3, 2026?	No	$1.4k	32.0¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Gulf oil facilities before September?	Yes	$100	36.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	Yes	$82	13.0¢	Won
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?	No	$100	32.3¢	Lost
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?	Yes	$201	82.4¢	Won
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	No	$50	34.4¢	Won
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	Yes	$400	36.0¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	$565	9.5¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Syria on Monday September 1?	Yes	$50	34.6¢	Lost
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July?	Yes	$3.2k	27.5¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	No	$51	9.1¢	Lost
Polish strike on Russia by September 30?	Yes	$50	2.0¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$151	14.5¢	Lost
Major cyberattack on Iran in June?	Yes	$400	38.1¢	Won
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?	Yes	$200	34.0¢	Lost
Another Houthi strike on Israel in May?	Yes	$820	13.5¢	Lost
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 24, 2026?	No	$250	10.7¢	Lost
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 24, 2026?	Yes	$655	50.4¢	Won
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	No	$4.5k	21.6¢	Lost
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	Yes	$19.7k	70.5¢	Won
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 26, 2026?	Yes	$30	33.0¢	Won
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?	Yes	$291	25.6¢	Lost
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025?	Yes	$100	10.5¢	Lost
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$1.6k	17.8¢	Won
Israel strike on Yemen by September 22?	Yes	$50	3.4¢	Lost
Will Israel declare war on Iran by Friday?	Yes	$200	26.0¢	Lost
Will Trump visit Israel in May?	Yes	$400	7.1¢	Lost

US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?Lost
No$200 @ 14.1¢
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before August?Lost
Yes$14 @ 14.0¢
Israel strike on Damascus by September 30?Lost
Yes$113 @ 48.0¢
Israel military action against Iran in April?Lost
Yes$287 @ 9.8¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?Won
No$342 @ 60.1¢
Another Israel strike on Yemen in July?Won
Yes$696 @ 76.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?Won
Yes$1 @ 30.0¢
Will France strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$30 @ 8.7¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Lost
Yes$416 @ 11.7¢
Iran strike on Qatar today?Lost
No$50 @ 32.4¢
Iran strike on Qatar today?Won
Yes$100 @ 36.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?Lost
Yes$100 @ 1.8¢
Another Israel military action on Yemen in May?Lost
No$100 @ 9.4¢
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
No$194 @ 61.5¢
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$274 @ 19.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.7¢
Will Donald Trump attend Pope Francis' funeral?Lost
No$12 @ 2.3¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?Lost
Yes$1 @ 42.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?Lost
No$100 @ 2.8¢
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026?Lost
Yes$200 @ 66.7¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Lost
Yes$11 @ 24.3¢
Israel strike on Damascus by August 31?Lost
Yes$100 @ 16.4¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Lost
Yes$50 @ 33.0¢
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 3, 2026?Lost
No$1.4k @ 32.0¢
Will Iran strike Gulf oil facilities before September?Lost
Yes$100 @ 36.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Won
Yes$82 @ 13.0¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Lost
No$100 @ 32.3¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Won
Yes$201 @ 82.4¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Won
No$50 @ 34.4¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Lost
Yes$400 @ 36.0¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Lost
Yes$565 @ 9.5¢
Will Israel strike Syria on Monday September 1?Lost
Yes$50 @ 34.6¢
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July?Won
Yes$3.2k @ 27.5¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?Lost
No$51 @ 9.1¢
Polish strike on Russia by September 30?Lost
Yes$50 @ 2.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$151 @ 14.5¢
Major cyberattack on Iran in June?Won
Yes$400 @ 38.1¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$200 @ 34.0¢
Another Houthi strike on Israel in May?Lost
Yes$820 @ 13.5¢
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 24, 2026?Lost
No$250 @ 10.7¢
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 24, 2026?Won
Yes$655 @ 50.4¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?Lost
No$4.5k @ 21.6¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?Won
Yes$19.7k @ 70.5¢
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 26, 2026?Won
Yes$30 @ 33.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?Lost
Yes$291 @ 25.6¢
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025?Lost
Yes$100 @ 10.5¢
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$1.6k @ 17.8¢
Israel strike on Yemen by September 22?Lost
Yes$50 @ 3.4¢
Will Israel declare war on Iran by Friday?Lost
Yes$200 @ 26.0¢
Will Trump visit Israel in May?Lost
Yes$400 @ 7.1¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$863	28.9¢
Israel election: will Likud lose seats?	Politics	No	$100	7.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$1	8.0¢
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$1	37.0¢
Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	Politics	No	$1	11.1¢
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by September 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1	9.0¢

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$863 @ 28.9¢
Israel election: will Likud lose seats?Politics
No$100 @ 7.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Geopolitics
No$1 @ 8.0¢
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?Politics
Yes$1 @ 37.0¢
Will Israel election happen as scheduled?Politics
No$1 @ 11.1¢
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by September 30?Geopolitics
Yes$1 @ 9.0¢