0xcfc2…0b59

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xcfc2c4c7a4de2f9db6ea0875e03f355fce090b59
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.1pp

ROI

+12%

Win rate

40% @ 35.7¢

Brier

0.207

Resolved

4467

Avg size

$26

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	38% (261/683)	+12%	683
Politics	43% (6/14)	-36%	14

Other683 bets
Hit rate
38% (261/683)
ROI
+12%
Politics14 bets
Hit rate
43% (6/14)
ROI
-36%

Track record

38% hit · 267/697

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Trump's approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on October 30, 2026?	Yes	$12	48.0¢	Won
Will Trump's approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on October 30, 2026?	Yes	$9	35.0¢	Lost
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 38.4 on October 16, 2026?	Yes	$10	69.0¢	Won
Will Trump's approval rating be between 37.0 and 37.4 on October 9, 2026?	Yes	$3	38.0¢	Lost
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?	No	$541	62.3¢	Lost
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?	Yes	$686	43.0¢	Won
1-25 bps decrease in ECB interest rates after 2024 December meeting?	Yes	$127	87.0¢	Won
Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?	No	$128	60.1¢	Won
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.9 on March 20, 2026?	Yes	$898	31.1¢	Won
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?	Yes	$32	79.0¢	Won
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 43.0% and 43.4% on October 10?	Yes	$354	28.6¢	Lost
Will Trump's 538 approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 7?	Yes	$12	9.0¢	Lost
Will Orbán flip Magyar for Next Hungary PM by Jan 31?	Yes	$25	9.0¢	Lost
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 44.0% and 44.4% on September 26?	Yes	$355	18.4¢	Lost
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 42.0 and 42.4 on March 6, 2026?	Yes	$599	37.7¢	Lost
Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 42.0 on February 6, 2026?	Yes	$133	8.8¢	Lost
Will Kamala lead in RCP by 0-0.4 on Oct 25?	Yes	$15	40.0¢	Won
Will Trump's approval rating be between 42.0 and 42.4 on January 23, 2026?	Yes	$577	31.8¢	Lost
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 43.0 on October 24 2025?	Yes	$0	2.0¢	Lost
Will Trump's 538 approval rating be 48.5% or higher on March 7?	Yes	$2	4.0¢	Lost
Will a Democrat win Nevada US Senate Election?	Yes	$311	57.5¢	Won
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday?	Yes	$9	3.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy purchases more Bitcoin before inauguration?	No	$10	10.0¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?	Yes	$48	1.9¢	Lost
Will Trump say "tampon" during Arizona rally on October 13?	No	$2	76.0¢	Won
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 45.0% on April 11?	No	$123	82.0¢	Won
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 45.0% on April 11?	Yes	$5	8.0¢	Lost
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on September 5?	Yes	$116	9.6¢	Lost
Will the next Government of Australia be a Labor majority?	Yes	$92	81.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "tax" 30 or more times during Arizona rally on October 13?	No	$2	79.0¢	Won
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%?	Yes	$52	23.7¢	Lost
US government shutdown by October 1?	Yes	$198	79.0¢	Won
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 40.0 on March 27, 2026?	Yes	$313	25.7¢	Lost
Will Trump's approval rating be between 42.5 and 42.9 on January 9, 2026?	Yes	$176	13.8¢	Lost
Will Trump’s approval rating be 43.5–43.9% on August 1?	Yes	$3	5.0¢	Lost
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.0–44.4% on August 1?	No	$28	9.0¢	Lost
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.0–44.4% on August 1?	Yes	$39	65.3¢	Won
Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on June 13?	No	$397	83.7¢	Won
Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on June 13?	Yes	$658	34.9¢	Lost
Will Tulsi Gabbard be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?	No	$9	44.0¢	Lost
Will Tulsi Gabbard be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?	Yes	$10	50.0¢	Won
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%?	Yes	$145	22.8¢	Lost
CA-45 election: Tran (D) vs. Steel (R)	Tran	$926	62.9¢	Won
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 41.0 and 41.4 on February 6, 2026?	Yes	$697	31.7¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?	Yes	$2	0.1¢	Lost
Will Trump’s approval rating be 43.5–43.9% on September 12?	Yes	$19	15.0¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in July?	No	$64	84.7¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in July?	Yes	$395	59.8¢	Won
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?	No	$13	66.0¢	Won
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?	Yes	$17	34.0¢	Lost

Will Trump's approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on October 30, 2026?Won
Yes$12 @ 48.0¢
Will Trump's approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on October 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 35.0¢
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 38.4 on October 16, 2026?Won
Yes$10 @ 69.0¢
Will Trump's approval rating be between 37.0 and 37.4 on October 9, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 38.0¢
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?Lost
No$541 @ 62.3¢
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?Won
Yes$686 @ 43.0¢
1-25 bps decrease in ECB interest rates after 2024 December meeting?Won
Yes$127 @ 87.0¢
Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?Won
No$128 @ 60.1¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.9 on March 20, 2026?Won
Yes$898 @ 31.1¢
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?Won
Yes$32 @ 79.0¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 43.0% and 43.4% on October 10?Lost
Yes$354 @ 28.6¢
Will Trump's 538 approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 7?Lost
Yes$12 @ 9.0¢
Will Orbán flip Magyar for Next Hungary PM by Jan 31?Lost
Yes$25 @ 9.0¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 44.0% and 44.4% on September 26?Lost
Yes$355 @ 18.4¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 42.0 and 42.4 on March 6, 2026?Lost
Yes$599 @ 37.7¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 42.0 on February 6, 2026?Lost
Yes$133 @ 8.8¢
Will Kamala lead in RCP by 0-0.4 on Oct 25?Won
Yes$15 @ 40.0¢
Will Trump's approval rating be between 42.0 and 42.4 on January 23, 2026?Lost
Yes$577 @ 31.8¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 43.0 on October 24 2025?Lost
Yes$0 @ 2.0¢
Will Trump's 538 approval rating be 48.5% or higher on March 7?Lost
Yes$2 @ 4.0¢
Will a Democrat win Nevada US Senate Election?Won
Yes$311 @ 57.5¢
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday?Lost
Yes$9 @ 3.0¢
MicroStrategy purchases more Bitcoin before inauguration?Lost
No$10 @ 10.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?Lost
Yes$48 @ 1.9¢
Will Trump say "tampon" during Arizona rally on October 13?Won
No$2 @ 76.0¢
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 45.0% on April 11?Won
No$123 @ 82.0¢
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 45.0% on April 11?Lost
Yes$5 @ 8.0¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on September 5?Lost
Yes$116 @ 9.6¢
Will the next Government of Australia be a Labor majority?Won
Yes$92 @ 81.0¢
Will Trump say "tax" 30 or more times during Arizona rally on October 13?Won
No$2 @ 79.0¢
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%?Lost
Yes$52 @ 23.7¢
US government shutdown by October 1?Won
Yes$198 @ 79.0¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 40.0 on March 27, 2026?Lost
Yes$313 @ 25.7¢
Will Trump's approval rating be between 42.5 and 42.9 on January 9, 2026?Lost
Yes$176 @ 13.8¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be 43.5–43.9% on August 1?Lost
Yes$3 @ 5.0¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.0–44.4% on August 1?Lost
No$28 @ 9.0¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.0–44.4% on August 1?Won
Yes$39 @ 65.3¢
Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on June 13?Won
No$397 @ 83.7¢
Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on June 13?Lost
Yes$658 @ 34.9¢
Will Tulsi Gabbard be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?Lost
No$9 @ 44.0¢
Will Tulsi Gabbard be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?Won
Yes$10 @ 50.0¢
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%?Lost
Yes$145 @ 22.8¢
CA-45 election: Tran (D) vs. Steel (R)Won
Tran$926 @ 62.9¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 41.0 and 41.4 on February 6, 2026?Lost
Yes$697 @ 31.7¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.1¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be 43.5–43.9% on September 12?Lost
Yes$19 @ 15.0¢
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in July?Lost
No$64 @ 84.7¢
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in July?Won
Yes$395 @ 59.8¢
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?Won
No$13 @ 66.0¢
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?Lost
Yes$17 @ 34.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$26	72.0¢

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$26 @ 72.0¢