0xced1…280e

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xced18e8e68c37cae3b714ca4116ed8bef996280e
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.1pp

ROI

+7%

Win rate

39% @ 31.4¢

Brier

0.196

Resolved

283

Avg size

$51

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	33% (32/98)	-3%	98
Sports	46% (6/13)	+36%	13
Politics	33% (1/3)	+121%	3
Tech	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Geopolitics	50% (1/2)	+95%	2
Crypto	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other98 bets
Hit rate
33% (32/98)
ROI
-3%
Sports13 bets
Hit rate
46% (6/13)
ROI
+36%
Politics3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+121%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+95%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

33% hit · 40/121

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Map Handicap: paiN (-1.5) vs Galorys (+1.5)	paiN	$202	27.0¢	Won
FC Vaduz vs. FC Thun: O/U 3.5	Over	$33	33.0¢	Lost
AS Monaco FC vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 2.5	Over	$50	49.0¢	Won
Sevilla FC vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5	Over	$50	50.0¢	Won
Will Base launch a token in 2025?	Yes	$10	2.0¢	Lost
Over 35,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?	Yes	$132	34.1¢	Lost
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs	Vivo Keyd Stars	$748	58.0¢	Lost
VfB Stuttgart vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 3.5	Over	$99	33.0¢	Lost
Will Aztec launch a token in 2025?	No	$18	25.0¢	Won
Will Aztec launch a token in 2025?	Yes	$54	21.5¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?	Yes	$2	3.2¢	Lost
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	$11	10.6¢	Lost
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01?	Yes	$48	48.0¢	Lost
Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale?	Yes	$181	19.2¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #9 Group Stage	Spirit Academy	$382	47.0¢	Lost
Map Handicap: INOX (-1.5) vs Inner Circle Prospect (+1.5)	Inner Circle Prospect	$235	41.0¢	Lost
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$40	30.9¢	Won
Brentford FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5	Over	$50	33.0¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$5	5.0¢	Lost
Over $1B committed to the Monad public sale?	Yes	$36	12.0¢	Lost
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 27?	No	$96	80.0¢	Won
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5	Over	$50	50.0¢	Won
AJ Auxerre vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 3.5	Over	$48	24.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs aimclub (BO3) - Tipsport Cup Open #2 Playoffs	Inner Circle Academy	$387	49.0¢	Lost
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale?	No	$76	27.0¢	Lost
Bologna FC 1909 vs. AS Roma: O/U 1.5	Over	$15	50.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8?	Yes	$60	60.0¢	Won
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - KeSPA Cup Last Chance Qualifier	Hanwha Life Esports	$679	52.0¢	Won
Counter-Strike: Just Swing vs Haunted House (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia-Pacific Cup #2 Playoffs	Just Swing	$308	58.0¢	Won
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 3.5	Over	$51	50.0¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?	Yes	$177	6.7¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$49	7.0¢	Lost
Brentford FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 1.5	Over	$50	50.0¢	Won
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Coventry City FC: O/U 2.5	Over	$50	33.0¢	Lost
Over $5M committed to the Makina public sale?	Yes	$9	8.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Team Falcons (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs	Team Falcons	$493	45.7¢	Lost
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?	No	$50	25.0¢	Lost
SAVE America Act becomes law by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	1.5¢	Lost
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?	Yes	$1	16.0¢	Lost
Over 25,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?	No	$22	52.0¢	Won
Over 25,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?	Yes	$136	7.2¢	Lost
Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?	Yes	$293	55.4¢	Lost
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by March 31?	Yes	$2	2.7¢	Lost
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?	No	$253	29.5¢	Lost
AS Roma vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 3.5	Over	$136	44.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$41	50.0¢	Won
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale?	No	$30	36.0¢	Won
Will the South Australian Liberal Party win the most seats in the next South Australian parliamentary election?	Yes	$2	2.7¢	Lost
Athletic Club vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 1.5	Over	$50	49.0¢	Lost

Map Handicap: paiN (-1.5) vs Galorys (+1.5)Won
paiN$202 @ 27.0¢
FC Vaduz vs. FC Thun: O/U 3.5Lost
Over$33 @ 33.0¢
AS Monaco FC vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 2.5Won
Over$50 @ 49.0¢
Sevilla FC vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5Won
Over$50 @ 50.0¢
Will Base launch a token in 2025?Lost
Yes$10 @ 2.0¢
Over 35,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?Lost
Yes$132 @ 34.1¢
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO5) - CBLOL PlayoffsLost
Vivo Keyd Stars$748 @ 58.0¢
VfB Stuttgart vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 3.5Lost
Over$99 @ 33.0¢
Will Aztec launch a token in 2025?Won
No$18 @ 25.0¢
Will Aztec launch a token in 2025?Lost
Yes$54 @ 21.5¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?Lost
Yes$2 @ 3.2¢
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Lost
Yes$11 @ 10.6¢
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01?Lost
Yes$48 @ 48.0¢
Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale?Lost
Yes$181 @ 19.2¢
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #9 Group StageLost
Spirit Academy$382 @ 47.0¢
Map Handicap: INOX (-1.5) vs Inner Circle Prospect (+1.5)Lost
Inner Circle Prospect$235 @ 41.0¢
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$40 @ 30.9¢
Brentford FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5Won
Over$50 @ 33.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 5.0¢
Over $1B committed to the Monad public sale?Lost
Yes$36 @ 12.0¢
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 27?Won
No$96 @ 80.0¢
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5Won
Over$50 @ 50.0¢
AJ Auxerre vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 3.5Lost
Over$48 @ 24.0¢
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs aimclub (BO3) - Tipsport Cup Open #2 PlayoffsLost
Inner Circle Academy$387 @ 49.0¢
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale?Lost
No$76 @ 27.0¢
Bologna FC 1909 vs. AS Roma: O/U 1.5Won
Over$15 @ 50.0¢
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8?Won
Yes$60 @ 60.0¢
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - KeSPA Cup Last Chance QualifierWon
Hanwha Life Esports$679 @ 52.0¢
Counter-Strike: Just Swing vs Haunted House (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia-Pacific Cup #2 PlayoffsWon
Just Swing$308 @ 58.0¢
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 3.5Lost
Over$51 @ 50.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?Lost
Yes$177 @ 6.7¢
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$49 @ 7.0¢
Brentford FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 1.5Won
Over$50 @ 50.0¢
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Coventry City FC: O/U 2.5Lost
Over$50 @ 33.0¢
Over $5M committed to the Makina public sale?Lost
Yes$9 @ 8.0¢
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Team Falcons (BO3) - Esports World Cup PlayoffsLost
Team Falcons$493 @ 45.7¢
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$50 @ 25.0¢
SAVE America Act becomes law by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.5¢
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?Lost
Yes$1 @ 16.0¢
Over 25,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?Won
No$22 @ 52.0¢
Over 25,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?Lost
Yes$136 @ 7.2¢
Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?Lost
Yes$293 @ 55.4¢
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by March 31?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.7¢
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?Lost
No$253 @ 29.5¢
AS Roma vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 3.5Won
Over$136 @ 44.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$41 @ 50.0¢
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale?Won
No$30 @ 36.0¢
Will the South Australian Liberal Party win the most seats in the next South Australian parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.7¢
Athletic Club vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 1.5Lost
Over$50 @ 49.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+2.5)	Sports	Shopify Rebellion	$721	56.0¢
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Detonate (BO3) - ESL Challenger League North America Cup #2 Playoffs	Sports	Marsborne	$540	53.0¢

Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+2.5)Sports
Shopify Rebellion$721 @ 56.0¢
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Detonate (BO3) - ESL Challenger League North America Cup #2 PlayoffsSports
Marsborne$540 @ 53.0¢