0xceca…3f67

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xcecaeade076dafc88fdb955864da9d9c15693f67
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.5pp

ROI

+12%

Win rate

73% @ 67.5¢

Brier

0.142

Resolved

608

Avg size

$122

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	70% (77/110)	+1%	110
Politics	80% (56/70)	+9%	70
Sports	58% (28/48)	-1%	48
Geopolitics	82% (18/22)	+9%	22
Tech	100% (1/1)	+33%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+77%	1

Other110 bets
Hit rate
70% (77/110)
ROI
+1%
Politics70 bets
Hit rate
80% (56/70)
ROI
+9%
Sports48 bets
Hit rate
58% (28/48)
ROI
-1%
Geopolitics22 bets
Hit rate
82% (18/22)
ROI
+9%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+33%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+77%

Track record

72% hit · 181/252

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?	Yes	$400	96.0¢	Won
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$182	60.4¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	$3.8k	87.6¢	Won
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Over	$60	75.0¢	Lost
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	$553	71.0¢	Won
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	$37	37.1¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$3.9k	78.9¢	Won
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?	Yes	$50	74.5¢	Won
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026?	No	$101	74.9¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$300	79.4¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$17	3.3¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$959	81.8¢	Won
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	$51	51.0¢	Lost
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	$36	36.5¢	Won
Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	$500	90.0¢	Won
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	$100	89.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?	No	$637	63.4¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	$300	69.6¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$112	56.7¢	Won
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	No	$121	77.8¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?	No	$10	8.8¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	$500	83.6¢	Won
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	$450	58.1¢	Lost
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	$215	53.4¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	Yes	$20	5.1¢	Lost
Will Liam Shrivastava win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral election?	Yes	$194	84.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$100	88.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	Yes	$290	27.4¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	$504	80.5¢	Won
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	$151	68.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$10	9.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$450	39.0¢	Won
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	$51	56.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 10?	Yes	$52	42.2¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	$200	72.9¢	Won
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Yes	$201	83.0¢	Won
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24?	Yes	$100	89.4¢	Won
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken?	Yes	$29	6.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?	No	$201	88.0¢	Won
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	$100	44.0¢	Won
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	No	$744	62.1¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	$655	53.2¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$595	61.2¢	Lost
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 80m?	Yes	$101	88.5¢	Won
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	$20	48.0¢	Lost
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 55m?	No	$226	58.5¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	No	$188	87.6¢	Won
Will France win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$63	7.3¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?	Yes	$5	6.9¢	Lost
Kash Patel out by May 31?	No	$1.4k	83.5¢	Won

US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?Won
Yes$400 @ 96.0¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$182 @ 60.4¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Won
No$3.8k @ 87.6¢
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5Lost
Over$60 @ 75.0¢
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Won
No$553 @ 71.0¢
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Lost
Yes$37 @ 37.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$3.9k @ 78.9¢
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?Won
Yes$50 @ 74.5¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026?Won
No$101 @ 74.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$300 @ 79.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$17 @ 3.3¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$959 @ 81.8¢
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?Lost
Yes$51 @ 51.0¢
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?Won
Yes$36 @ 36.5¢
Iran leadership change by May 31?Won
No$500 @ 90.0¢
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?Won
Yes$100 @ 89.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?Won
No$637 @ 63.4¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Won
No$300 @ 69.6¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$112 @ 56.7¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?Lost
No$121 @ 77.8¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?Lost
No$10 @ 8.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Won
No$500 @ 83.6¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Lost
Yes$450 @ 58.1¢
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?Lost
No$215 @ 53.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?Lost
Yes$20 @ 5.1¢
Will Liam Shrivastava win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral election?Won
Yes$194 @ 84.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$100 @ 88.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Lost
Yes$290 @ 27.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?Won
No$504 @ 80.5¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?Won
Yes$151 @ 68.0¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 9.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$450 @ 39.0¢
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?Won
Yes$51 @ 56.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 10?Lost
Yes$52 @ 42.2¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Won
No$200 @ 72.9¢
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Won
Yes$201 @ 83.0¢
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24?Won
Yes$100 @ 89.4¢
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken?Lost
Yes$29 @ 6.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?Won
No$201 @ 88.0¢
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?Won
Yes$100 @ 44.0¢
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?Won
No$744 @ 62.1¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Won
No$655 @ 53.2¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$595 @ 61.2¢
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 80m?Won
Yes$101 @ 88.5¢
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?Lost
Yes$20 @ 48.0¢
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 55m?Lost
No$226 @ 58.5¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?Won
No$188 @ 87.6¢
Will France win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$63 @ 7.3¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?Lost
Yes$5 @ 6.9¢
Kash Patel out by May 31?Won
No$1.4k @ 83.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	—	Yes	$6.1k	87.1¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$3.8k	86.3¢
Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$3.5k	89.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$3.0k	86.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	—	Yes	$2.6k	86.6¢
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?	—	No	$2.2k	83.6¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$2.1k	92.1¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	—	No	$2.0k	72.7¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$1.5k	85.3¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	Yes	$1.5k	87.6¢
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	No	$1.4k	85.2¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.3k	67.7¢
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$1.2k	81.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	Politics	No	$1.2k	86.3¢
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?	—	No	$1.2k	78.9¢
Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$1.0k	88.4¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Politics	No	$982	48.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	—	Yes	$976	77.0¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$964	87.9¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$951	63.4¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$917	76.1¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	No	$887	85.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$795	85.0¢
New pandemic in 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$752	91.2¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	No	$600	74.9¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$552	50.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?	—	No	$517	94.0¢
Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?	—	Yes	$468	84.4¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	—	Yes	$437	81.0¢
Will Belit Onay win the next Hannover mayoral election?	—	Yes	$383	76.6¢

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?—
Yes$6.1k @ 87.1¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?—
No$3.8k @ 86.3¢
Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026?—
No$3.5k @ 89.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?—
No$3.0k @ 86.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?—
Yes$2.6k @ 86.6¢
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?—
No$2.2k @ 83.6¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026?—
No$2.1k @ 92.1¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?—
No$2.0k @ 72.7¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$1.5k @ 85.3¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
Yes$1.5k @ 87.6¢
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
No$1.4k @ 85.2¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$1.3k @ 67.7¢
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?Tech
No$1.2k @ 81.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Politics
No$1.2k @ 86.3¢
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?—
No$1.2k @ 78.9¢
Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?—
No$1.0k @ 88.4¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?Politics
No$982 @ 48.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?—
Yes$976 @ 77.0¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$964 @ 87.9¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$951 @ 63.4¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$917 @ 76.1¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
No$887 @ 85.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$795 @ 85.0¢
New pandemic in 2026?Geopolitics
No$752 @ 91.2¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
No$600 @ 74.9¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$552 @ 50.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?—
No$517 @ 94.0¢
Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?—
Yes$468 @ 84.4¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?—
Yes$437 @ 81.0¢
Will Belit Onay win the next Hannover mayoral election?—
Yes$383 @ 76.6¢