0xceca…3f67

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xcecaeade076dafc88fdb955864da9d9c15693f67
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.3pp

ROI

+11%

Win rate

77% @ 68.8¢

Brier

0.118

Resolved

385

Avg size

$101

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	58% (26/45)	+4%	45
Politics	79% (15/19)	+14%	19
Geopolitics	82% (9/11)	+22%	11
Sports	50% (4/8)	+7%	8
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+77%	1

Other45 bets
Hit rate
58% (26/45)
ROI
+4%
Politics19 bets
Hit rate
79% (15/19)
ROI
+14%
Geopolitics11 bets
Hit rate
82% (9/11)
ROI
+22%
Sports8 bets
Hit rate
50% (4/8)
ROI
+7%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+77%

Track record

65% hit · 55/84

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?	No	$494	66.1¢	Won
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	No	$1000	81.8¢	Won
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$182	60.4¢	Won
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$200	30.5¢	Lost
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	$704	65.1¢	Won
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	$37	37.1¢	Lost
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-14?	No	$80	59.3¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$3.9k	78.9¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?	No	$1.2k	88.0¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$500	84.6¢	Won
Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30?	No	$270	70.6¢	Won
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?	No	$200	89.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$300	79.4¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$17	3.3¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$959	81.8¢	Won
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	$51	51.0¢	Lost
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	$36	36.5¢	Won
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14?	No	$20	48.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?	No	$100	43.1¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	No	$1.8k	79.7¢	Won
Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	$500	90.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$60	18.5¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$300	84.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	$300	69.6¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$112	56.7¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?	No	$10	8.8¢	Lost
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	$900	84.4¢	Won
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	$450	58.1¢	Lost
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	$215	53.4¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	No	$1.2k	87.8¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	No	$718	62.1¢	Lost
Will Liam Shrivastava win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral election?	Yes	$194	84.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$100	88.0¢	Won
Heat vs. Hornets	Hornets	$10	17.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January?	No	$200	70.0¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	No	$335	70.5¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$115	57.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$450	39.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$600	33.8¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	$100	71.0¢	Won
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19?	Yes	$20	23.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 10?	Yes	$52	42.2¢	Lost
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	Yes	$150	86.6¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	$200	72.9¢	Won
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?	No	$119	68.3¢	Won
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	$1.1k	75.5¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?	No	$100	76.6¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?	No	$200	87.0¢	Won
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken?	Yes	$29	6.0¢	Lost
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	$550	64.6¢	Won

Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?Won
No$494 @ 66.1¢
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Won
No$1000 @ 81.8¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$182 @ 60.4¢
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$200 @ 30.5¢
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Won
No$704 @ 65.1¢
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Lost
Yes$37 @ 37.1¢
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-14?Won
No$80 @ 59.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$3.9k @ 78.9¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?Won
No$1.2k @ 88.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$500 @ 84.6¢
Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30?Won
No$270 @ 70.6¢
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?Won
No$200 @ 89.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$300 @ 79.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$17 @ 3.3¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$959 @ 81.8¢
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?Lost
Yes$51 @ 51.0¢
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?Won
Yes$36 @ 36.5¢
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14?Lost
No$20 @ 48.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?Won
No$100 @ 43.1¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?Won
No$1.8k @ 79.7¢
Iran leadership change by May 31?Won
No$500 @ 90.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$60 @ 18.5¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$300 @ 84.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Won
No$300 @ 69.6¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$112 @ 56.7¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?Lost
No$10 @ 8.8¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?Won
No$900 @ 84.4¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Lost
Yes$450 @ 58.1¢
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?Lost
No$215 @ 53.4¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Won
No$1.2k @ 87.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Lost
No$718 @ 62.1¢
Will Liam Shrivastava win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral election?Won
Yes$194 @ 84.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$100 @ 88.0¢
Heat vs. HornetsLost
Hornets$10 @ 17.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January?Won
No$200 @ 70.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Lost
No$335 @ 70.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$115 @ 57.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$450 @ 39.0¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
No$600 @ 33.8¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Won
Yes$100 @ 71.0¢
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19?Lost
Yes$20 @ 23.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 10?Lost
Yes$52 @ 42.2¢
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?Won
Yes$150 @ 86.6¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Won
No$200 @ 72.9¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?Won
No$119 @ 68.3¢
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?Won
No$1.1k @ 75.5¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?Won
No$100 @ 76.6¢
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?Won
No$200 @ 87.0¢
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken?Lost
Yes$29 @ 6.0¢
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?Won
Yes$550 @ 64.6¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	Politics	No	$7.3k	88.5¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	No	$4.0k	92.3¢
Kash Patel out by June 30?	Politics	No	$3.2k	85.3¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	Politics	No	$2.9k	96.3¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Politics	No	$2.8k	87.5¢
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$2.6k	93.4¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	Politics	No	$1.7k	75.8¢
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.6k	60.7¢
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30?	Politics	No	$1.4k	94.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26?	Geopolitics	No	$1.4k	97.7¢
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	No	$1.4k	96.2¢
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	No	$1.4k	92.3¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	No	$1.4k	85.0¢
Ebola pandemic in 2026?	Science	No	$1.1k	93.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22?	Politics	No	$1000	99.5¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$900	97.0¢
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$800	90.4¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?	Geopolitics	No	$600	89.7¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?	Politics	No	$600	95.8¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Politics	No	$500	36.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	Politics	No	$400	70.0¢
New pandemic in 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$200	89.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$200	88.0¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?	Politics	No	$190	89.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Geopolitics	No	$100	94.0¢
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Sports	No	$70	60.0¢
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$50	15.0¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$43	13.0¢
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$43	13.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$40	12.0¢

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Politics
No$7.3k @ 88.5¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
No$4.0k @ 92.3¢
Kash Patel out by June 30?Politics
No$3.2k @ 85.3¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?Politics
No$2.9k @ 96.3¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?Politics
No$2.8k @ 87.5¢
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?Politics
No$2.6k @ 93.4¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?Politics
No$1.7k @ 75.8¢
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$1.6k @ 60.7¢
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30?Politics
No$1.4k @ 94.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26?Geopolitics
No$1.4k @ 97.7¢
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
No$1.4k @ 96.2¢
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
No$1.4k @ 92.3¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
No$1.4k @ 85.0¢
Ebola pandemic in 2026?Science
No$1.1k @ 93.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22?Politics
No$1000 @ 99.5¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Geopolitics
No$900 @ 97.0¢
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Politics
Yes$800 @ 90.4¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?Geopolitics
No$600 @ 89.7¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?Politics
No$600 @ 95.8¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?Politics
No$500 @ 36.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Politics
No$400 @ 70.0¢
New pandemic in 2026?Geopolitics
No$200 @ 89.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$200 @ 88.0¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?Politics
No$190 @ 89.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Geopolitics
No$100 @ 94.0¢
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?Sports
No$70 @ 60.0¢
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$50 @ 15.0¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$43 @ 13.0¢
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$43 @ 13.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$40 @ 12.0¢