0xceca…3f67

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xcecaeade076dafc88fdb955864da9d9c15693f67
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.3pp

ROI

+12%

Win rate

78% @ 69.1¢

Brier

0.113

Resolved

342

Avg size

$96

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	58% (26/45)	+7%	45
Politics	73% (16/22)	+12%	22
Geopolitics	82% (9/11)	+21%	11
Sports	50% (4/8)	+7%	8
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+77%	1

Other45 bets
Hit rate
58% (26/45)
ROI
+7%
Politics22 bets
Hit rate
73% (16/22)
ROI
+12%
Geopolitics11 bets
Hit rate
82% (9/11)
ROI
+21%
Sports8 bets
Hit rate
50% (4/8)
ROI
+7%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+77%

Track record

64% hit · 56/87

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?	No	$494	66.1¢	Won
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	No	$1000	81.8¢	Won
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$182	60.4¢	Won
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	$704	65.1¢	Won
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	$37	37.1¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$3.9k	78.9¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?	No	$1.2k	88.0¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$500	84.6¢	Won
Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30?	No	$270	70.6¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$300	79.4¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$17	3.3¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$959	81.8¢	Won
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	$51	51.0¢	Lost
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	$36	36.5¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	No	$1.8k	79.7¢	Won
Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	$500	90.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	$300	69.6¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$112	56.7¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?	No	$10	8.8¢	Lost
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	$450	58.1¢	Lost
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	$215	53.4¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	No	$718	62.1¢	Lost
Will Liam Shrivastava win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral election?	Yes	$194	84.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$100	88.0¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	No	$10	43.7¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$115	57.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$450	39.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$600	33.8¢	Lost
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19?	Yes	$20	23.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 10?	Yes	$52	42.2¢	Lost
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	Yes	$150	86.6¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	$200	72.9¢	Won
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	$1.1k	75.5¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?	No	$100	76.6¢	Won
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	$350	56.3¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$1.8k	75.3¢	Won
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?	No	$525	86.5¢	Won
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 80m?	Yes	$101	88.5¢	Won
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	$20	48.0¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	$280	80.7¢	Won
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 55m?	No	$226	58.5¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	No	$188	87.6¢	Won
Will France win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$63	7.3¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?	Yes	$5	6.9¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	$300	86.0¢	Won
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	$557	58.0¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	$157	3.2¢	Lost
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$429	34.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 10?	Yes	$46	36.5¢	Lost
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	$1.0k	66.2¢	Lost

Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?Won
No$494 @ 66.1¢
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Won
No$1000 @ 81.8¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$182 @ 60.4¢
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Won
No$704 @ 65.1¢
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Lost
Yes$37 @ 37.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$3.9k @ 78.9¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?Won
No$1.2k @ 88.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$500 @ 84.6¢
Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30?Won
No$270 @ 70.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$300 @ 79.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$17 @ 3.3¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$959 @ 81.8¢
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?Lost
Yes$51 @ 51.0¢
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?Won
Yes$36 @ 36.5¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?Won
No$1.8k @ 79.7¢
Iran leadership change by May 31?Won
No$500 @ 90.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Won
No$300 @ 69.6¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$112 @ 56.7¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?Lost
No$10 @ 8.8¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Lost
Yes$450 @ 58.1¢
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?Lost
No$215 @ 53.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Lost
No$718 @ 62.1¢
Will Liam Shrivastava win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral election?Won
Yes$194 @ 84.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$100 @ 88.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Lost
No$10 @ 43.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$115 @ 57.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$450 @ 39.0¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
No$600 @ 33.8¢
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19?Lost
Yes$20 @ 23.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 10?Lost
Yes$52 @ 42.2¢
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?Won
Yes$150 @ 86.6¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Won
No$200 @ 72.9¢
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?Won
No$1.1k @ 75.5¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?Won
No$100 @ 76.6¢
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?Won
Yes$350 @ 56.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$1.8k @ 75.3¢
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?Won
No$525 @ 86.5¢
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 80m?Won
Yes$101 @ 88.5¢
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?Lost
Yes$20 @ 48.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?Won
No$280 @ 80.7¢
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 55m?Lost
No$226 @ 58.5¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?Won
No$188 @ 87.6¢
Will France win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$63 @ 7.3¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?Lost
Yes$5 @ 6.9¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?Won
No$300 @ 86.0¢
Will England win on 2026-06-17?Won
Yes$557 @ 58.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?Lost
Yes$157 @ 3.2¢
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$429 @ 34.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 10?Lost
Yes$46 @ 36.5¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$1.0k @ 66.2¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?	Politics	No	$6.5k	93.9¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$5.1k	89.4¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Politics	No	$3.5k	89.6¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$3.4k	87.9¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$3.2k	86.3¢
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?	—	No	$2.0k	85.3¢
Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?	—	No	$2.0k	96.2¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.7k	91.4¢
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	No	$1.7k	85.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	—	No	$1.4k	95.2¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.3k	67.7¢
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31?	—	No	$1.1k	96.8¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Politics	No	$1.1k	46.9¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Politics	No	$1000	85.5¢
Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$1000	80.3¢
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?	—	Yes	$978	97.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$917	76.1¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?	Geopolitics	No	$900	82.2¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	No	$887	85.0¢
New pandemic in 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$752	91.2¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	—	No	$750	39.2¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	—	No	$630	39.5¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	—	No	$574	73.4¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$552	50.4¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	No	$500	74.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$477	49.1¢
Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$448	91.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$396	73.3¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$393	79.2¢
Israel military action against Yemen by August 31?	—	No	$300	94.4¢

Israel closes its airspace by August 15?Politics
No$6.5k @ 93.9¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$5.1k @ 89.4¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Politics
No$3.5k @ 89.6¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$3.4k @ 87.9¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$3.2k @ 86.3¢
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?—
No$2.0k @ 85.3¢
Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?—
No$2.0k @ 96.2¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$1.7k @ 91.4¢
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
No$1.7k @ 85.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?—
No$1.4k @ 95.2¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$1.3k @ 67.7¢
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31?—
No$1.1k @ 96.8¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?Politics
No$1.1k @ 46.9¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Politics
No$1000 @ 85.5¢
Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$1000 @ 80.3¢
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?—
Yes$978 @ 97.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$917 @ 76.1¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?Geopolitics
No$900 @ 82.2¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
No$887 @ 85.0¢
New pandemic in 2026?Geopolitics
No$752 @ 91.2¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?—
No$750 @ 39.2¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?—
No$630 @ 39.5¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?—
No$574 @ 73.4¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$552 @ 50.4¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
No$500 @ 74.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$477 @ 49.1¢
Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$448 @ 91.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$396 @ 73.3¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$393 @ 79.2¢
Israel military action against Yemen by August 31?—
No$300 @ 94.4¢