0xce83…5b97

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xce835747e39bf987de4c04052b1677e6633e5b97
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.1pp

ROI

+13%

Win rate

83% @ 75.2¢

Brier

0.122

Resolved

983

Avg size

$240

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	79% (119/151)	-1%	151
Politics	80% (88/110)	+7%	110
Crypto	95% (56/59)	+16%	59
Sports	57% (21/37)	+6%	37
Business	85% (22/26)	+6%	26
Tech	88% (15/17)	+14%	17
Geopolitics	94% (15/16)	+17%	16
Economy	67% (4/6)	-12%	6

Other151 bets
Hit rate
79% (119/151)
ROI
-1%
Politics110 bets
Hit rate
80% (88/110)
ROI
+7%
Crypto59 bets
Hit rate
95% (56/59)
ROI
+16%
Sports37 bets
Hit rate
57% (21/37)
ROI
+6%
Business26 bets
Hit rate
85% (22/26)
ROI
+6%
Tech17 bets
Hit rate
88% (15/17)
ROI
+14%
Geopolitics16 bets
Hit rate
94% (15/16)
ROI
+17%
Economy6 bets
Hit rate
67% (4/6)
ROI
-12%

Track record

81% hit · 340/422

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	$500	83.4¢	Won
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	$500	87.4¢	Won
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	$200	85.3¢	Won
Will Solana reach $140 in October?	No	$500	79.8¢	Won
Will Ethereum reach $3,100 in October?	No	$670	87.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in October?	No	$500	86.0¢	Won
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in October?	No	$500	87.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in October?	No	$1.7k	86.5¢	Won
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in October?	No	$500	85.1¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	No	$1.1k	87.4¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October?	No	$1000	85.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?	No	$1.4k	85.4¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in October?	No	$1000	86.0¢	Won
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 in October?	No	$430	86.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in October?	No	$200	95.0¢	Won
Will Solana dip to $90 in October?	No	$1000	84.0¢	Won
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	$200	77.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	$300	88.0¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	$300	86.9¢	Won
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?	Yes	$1000	89.0¢	Won
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?	Yes	$425	85.0¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	$300	85.4¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in October?	No	$200	89.6¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	No	$300	86.0¢	Won
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in October?	No	$263	87.7¢	Won
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 in October?	No	$200	83.7¢	Won
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $58 in October?	No	$270	90.0¢	Won
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $56 in October?	No	$600	84.7¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	$4.1k	90.0¢	Won
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in October?	No	$930	85.9¢	Won
Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (HIGH) $195 in October?	No	$794	78.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (HIGH) $200 in October?	No	$260	84.0¢	Won
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $600 in October?	No	$154	86.0¢	Won
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $840 in October?	No	$185	85.1¢	Won
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $860 in October?	No	$300	81.0¢	Won
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 in October?	No	$199	86.1¢	Won
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $900 in October?	No	$440	88.0¢	Won
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $224 in October?	No	$155	90.0¢	Won
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $880 in October?	No	$400	88.0¢	Won
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 in October?	No	$740	92.0¢	Won
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in October?	No	$300	77.7¢	Lost
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $50 in October?	No	$800	84.8¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $208 in October?	No	$200	74.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?	No	$700	89.2¢	Lost
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in October?	No	$450	90.0¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	$300	87.0¢	Won
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $620 in October?	No	$410	82.0¢	Lost
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	$500	84.9¢	Won
Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?	Yes	$200	67.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	$1.9k	88.9¢	Won

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Won
Yes$500 @ 83.4¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?Won
No$500 @ 87.4¢
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?Won
No$200 @ 85.3¢
Will Solana reach $140 in October?Won
No$500 @ 79.8¢
Will Ethereum reach $3,100 in October?Won
No$670 @ 87.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in October?Won
No$500 @ 86.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in October?Won
No$500 @ 87.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in October?Won
No$1.7k @ 86.5¢
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in October?Won
No$500 @ 85.1¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?Won
No$1.1k @ 87.4¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October?Won
No$1000 @ 85.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?Won
No$1.4k @ 85.4¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in October?Won
No$1000 @ 86.0¢
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 in October?Won
No$430 @ 86.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in October?Won
No$200 @ 95.0¢
Will Solana dip to $90 in October?Won
No$1000 @ 84.0¢
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?Won
Yes$200 @ 77.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?Won
Yes$300 @ 88.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Won
Yes$300 @ 86.9¢
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?Won
Yes$1000 @ 89.0¢
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?Lost
Yes$425 @ 85.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$300 @ 85.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in October?Won
No$200 @ 89.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?Won
No$300 @ 86.0¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in October?Won
No$263 @ 87.7¢
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 in October?Won
No$200 @ 83.7¢
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $58 in October?Won
No$270 @ 90.0¢
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $56 in October?Won
No$600 @ 84.7¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?Won
Yes$4.1k @ 90.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in October?Won
No$930 @ 85.9¢
Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (HIGH) $195 in October?Won
No$794 @ 78.0¢
Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (HIGH) $200 in October?Won
No$260 @ 84.0¢
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $600 in October?Won
No$154 @ 86.0¢
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $840 in October?Won
No$185 @ 85.1¢
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $860 in October?Won
No$300 @ 81.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 in October?Won
No$199 @ 86.1¢
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $900 in October?Won
No$440 @ 88.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $224 in October?Won
No$155 @ 90.0¢
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $880 in October?Won
No$400 @ 88.0¢
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 in October?Won
No$740 @ 92.0¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in October?Lost
No$300 @ 77.7¢
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $50 in October?Lost
No$800 @ 84.8¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $208 in October?Lost
No$200 @ 74.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?Lost
No$700 @ 89.2¢
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in October?Lost
No$450 @ 90.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$300 @ 87.0¢
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $620 in October?Lost
No$410 @ 82.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?Won
No$500 @ 84.9¢
Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?Won
Yes$200 @ 67.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Won
Yes$1.9k @ 88.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Politics	No	$1.1k	95.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Politics	Yes	$1000	86.7¢
1win FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$1000	87.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in November?	Other	No	$530	85.4¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?	Geopolitics	Yes	$300	87.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$300	84.0¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,500 in November?	Other	No	$200	89.4¢
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 October 26-November 1?	Crypto	No	$200	89.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Politics	Yes	$200	91.9¢
1win FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$200	74.0¢
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $42 in November?	Other	No	$200	86.0¢
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$200	93.0¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 2, 2026?	Tech	No	$200	91.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of November 2026?	Tech	Yes	$200	79.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	Politics	Yes	$200	86.0¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,600 in November?	Other	No	$120	83.8¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 October 26-November 1?	Crypto	No	$100	95.9¢
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $520 in November?	Business	No	$70	84.0¢

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
No$1.1k @ 95.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Politics
Yes$1000 @ 86.7¢
1win FDV above $150M one day after launch?Crypto
No$1000 @ 87.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in November?Other
No$530 @ 85.4¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?Geopolitics
Yes$300 @ 87.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$300 @ 84.0¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,500 in November?Other
No$200 @ 89.4¢
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 October 26-November 1?Crypto
No$200 @ 89.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?Politics
Yes$200 @ 91.9¢
1win FDV above $100M one day after launch?Crypto
No$200 @ 74.0¢
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $42 in November?Other
No$200 @ 86.0¢
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$200 @ 93.0¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 2, 2026?Tech
No$200 @ 91.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of November 2026?Tech
Yes$200 @ 79.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?Politics
Yes$200 @ 86.0¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,600 in November?Other
No$120 @ 83.8¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 October 26-November 1?Crypto
No$100 @ 95.9¢
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $520 in November?Business
No$70 @ 84.0¢