0xce83…5b97

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xce835747e39bf987de4c04052b1677e6633e5b97
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+13.0pp

ROI

+17%

Win rate

87% @ 74.1¢

Brier

0.087

Resolved

194

Avg size

$254

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	79% (37/47)	+10%	47
Crypto	94% (15/16)	+22%	16
Politics	93% (13/14)	+25%	14
Sports	80% (4/5)	+12%	5
Geopolitics	100% (4/4)	+43%	4
Tech	100% (2/2)	+46%	2

Other47 bets
Hit rate
79% (37/47)
ROI
+10%
Crypto16 bets
Hit rate
94% (15/16)
ROI
+22%
Politics14 bets
Hit rate
93% (13/14)
ROI
+25%
Sports5 bets
Hit rate
80% (4/5)
ROI
+12%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
100% (4/4)
ROI
+43%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+46%

Track record

85% hit · 75/88

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	No	$250	81.0¢	Won
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April?	No	$365	73.0¢	Won
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in April?	No	$150	72.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	No	$604	79.1¢	Won
Trump announces tariff for Iran military cooperation by April 17?	No	$200	79.6¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?	No	$1.0k	84.5¢	Won
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April?	No	$200	75.7¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?	No	$200	33.7¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Svitle by April 30?	No	$300	83.0¢	Won
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in April?	No	$31	82.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$3.6k	77.1¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	No	$818	84.5¢	Won
Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	$918	70.2¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	No	$200	56.6¢	Won
Will Solana dip to $60 in April?	No	$200	76.0¢	Won
Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	$550	86.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$470	78.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by April 30?	No	$201	59.1¢	Won
Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?	Yes	$483	89.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$608	62.6¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	No	$250	84.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?	No	$800	68.5¢	Lost
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in April?	No	$312	83.0¢	Won
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	$785	73.4¢	Won
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	$202	79.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	No	$4.0k	78.1¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by April 30, 2026?	No	$201	63.9¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$303	77.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$300	61.0¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in April 2026?	No	$300	83.0¢	Won
Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	$253	84.3¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$203	59.0¢	Won
Will Solana dip to $50 in June?	No	$610	76.2¢	Won
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$164	53.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	No	$200	82.8¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	$200	89.4¢	Won
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	$478	73.9¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?	No	$500	78.3¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$300	34.1¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?	No	$104	29.0¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Riasne by May 31?	No	$47	67.1¢	Lost
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June?	No	$305	74.1¢	Won
Over $100M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	$1.9k	84.5¢	Won
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April?	No	$200	77.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?	No	$303	78.6¢	Won
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	$200	81.0¢	Won
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May?	No	$422	60.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	$914	60.9¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$600	64.5¢	Won
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?	No	$300	88.0¢	Won

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Won
No$250 @ 81.0¢
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April?Won
No$365 @ 73.0¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in April?Won
No$150 @ 72.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?Won
No$604 @ 79.1¢
Trump announces tariff for Iran military cooperation by April 17?Won
No$200 @ 79.6¢
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?Won
No$1.0k @ 84.5¢
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April?Won
No$200 @ 75.7¢
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$200 @ 33.7¢
Will Russia enter Svitle by April 30?Won
No$300 @ 83.0¢
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in April?Won
No$31 @ 82.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$3.6k @ 77.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?Won
No$818 @ 84.5¢
Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale?Won
No$918 @ 70.2¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?Won
No$200 @ 56.6¢
Will Solana dip to $60 in April?Won
No$200 @ 76.0¢
Iran leadership change by May 31?Won
No$550 @ 86.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$470 @ 78.0¢
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by April 30?Won
No$201 @ 59.1¢
Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?Won
Yes$483 @ 89.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$608 @ 62.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?Won
No$250 @ 84.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?Lost
No$800 @ 68.5¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in April?Won
No$312 @ 83.0¢
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale?Won
No$785 @ 73.4¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Lost
No$202 @ 79.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?Won
No$4.0k @ 78.1¢
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by April 30, 2026?Won
No$201 @ 63.9¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Won
Yes$303 @ 77.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$300 @ 61.0¢
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in April 2026?Won
No$300 @ 83.0¢
Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale?Won
No$253 @ 84.3¢
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?Won
Yes$203 @ 59.0¢
Will Solana dip to $50 in June?Won
No$610 @ 76.2¢
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$164 @ 53.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?Won
No$200 @ 82.8¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Won
No$200 @ 89.4¢
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale?Won
No$478 @ 73.9¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Won
No$500 @ 78.3¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
No$300 @ 34.1¢
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?Lost
No$104 @ 29.0¢
Will Russia enter Riasne by May 31?Lost
No$47 @ 67.1¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June?Won
No$305 @ 74.1¢
Over $100M committed to the Printr public sale?Won
No$1.9k @ 84.5¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April?Won
No$200 @ 77.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?Won
No$303 @ 78.6¢
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?Won
No$200 @ 81.0¢
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May?Won
No$422 @ 60.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$914 @ 60.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$600 @ 64.5¢
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?Won
No$300 @ 88.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?	—	No	$2.6k	65.8¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August?	—	No	$1.8k	78.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August?	—	No	$1.1k	83.9¢
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$1.1k	63.1¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	—	Yes	$1.1k	68.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?	Politics	No	$500	82.6¢
Anthropic vs OpenAI — greater valuation growth August 2026	—	Anthropic	$351	67.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30?	—	No	$300	65.0¢
Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea?	Sports	Yes	$300	70.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August?	—	No	$300	81.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Politics	No	$300	90.3¢
Will Eduardo Braide win the Governor of Maranhão election?	Politics	Yes	$300	75.5¢
Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?	—	Yes	$300	82.0¢
Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election?	Politics	Yes	$300	81.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in August?	—	No	$245	92.8¢
Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?	Sports	Yes	$200	63.9¢
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid?	Sports	Yes	$200	68.8¢
Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by August 31?	Politics	No	$180	83.5¢
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?	Politics	Yes	$158	70.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August?	—	No	$120	86.0¢
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?	Politics	Yes	$27	67.0¢
Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?	Politics	Yes	$22	72.0¢

Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?—
No$2.6k @ 65.8¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August?—
No$1.8k @ 78.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August?—
No$1.1k @ 83.9¢
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$1.1k @ 63.1¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?—
Yes$1.1k @ 68.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?Politics
No$500 @ 82.6¢
Anthropic vs OpenAI — greater valuation growth August 2026—
Anthropic$351 @ 67.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30?—
No$300 @ 65.0¢
Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea?Sports
Yes$300 @ 70.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August?—
No$300 @ 81.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Politics
No$300 @ 90.3¢
Will Eduardo Braide win the Governor of Maranhão election?Politics
Yes$300 @ 75.5¢
Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?—
Yes$300 @ 82.0¢
Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election?Politics
Yes$300 @ 81.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in August?—
No$245 @ 92.8¢
Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?Sports
Yes$200 @ 63.9¢
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid?Sports
Yes$200 @ 68.8¢
Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by August 31?Politics
No$180 @ 83.5¢
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?Politics
Yes$158 @ 70.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August?—
No$120 @ 86.0¢
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?Politics
Yes$27 @ 67.0¢
Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?Politics
Yes$22 @ 72.0¢