0xce83…5b97

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xce835747e39bf987de4c04052b1677e6633e5b97
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+13.0pp

ROI

+17%

Win rate

87% @ 74.3¢

Brier

0.086

Resolved

197

Avg size

$254

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	81% (85/105)	-1%	105
Sports	55% (18/33)	+1%	33
Politics	87% (27/31)	+20%	31
Crypto	95% (19/20)	+21%	20
Geopolitics	100% (8/8)	+22%	8
Tech	100% (5/5)	+24%	5
Economy	100% (1/1)	+22%	1

Other105 bets
Hit rate
81% (85/105)
ROI
-1%
Sports33 bets
Hit rate
55% (18/33)
ROI
+1%
Politics31 bets
Hit rate
87% (27/31)
ROI
+20%
Crypto20 bets
Hit rate
95% (19/20)
ROI
+21%
Geopolitics8 bets
Hit rate
100% (8/8)
ROI
+22%
Tech5 bets
Hit rate
100% (5/5)
ROI
+24%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+22%

Track record

80% hit · 163/203

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s US Open?	Yes	$30	5.8¢	Won
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	$136	27.3¢	Won
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s US Open?	Yes	$50	9.6¢	Lost
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s US Open?	Yes	$123	23.9¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?	No	$1.1k	85.9¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?	Yes	$335	73.4¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in August?	No	$200	92.0¢	Won
Will Iga Swiatek win the 2026 Women’s US Open?	Yes	$77	15.0¢	Lost
Will Jessica Pegula win the 2026 Women’s US Open?	Yes	$49	9.5¢	Lost
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	$285	57.0¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12?	No	$2.8k	89.8¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?	No	$500	89.8¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?	No	$4.2k	88.6¢	Won
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	$300	65.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?	No	$620	95.1¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	No	$300	90.3¢	Won
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in August?	No	$250	83.4¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August?	No	$344	78.7¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August?	No	$120	86.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$790	93.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?	No	$1000	83.4¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?	No	$500	86.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?	Yes	$100	69.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	$1000	82.0¢	Won
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?	No	$200	75.9¢	Won
Will Solana dip to $60 in August?	No	$400	80.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in August?	No	$300	81.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August?	No	$200	84.0¢	Won
Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by August 31?	No	$180	83.5¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?	No	$200	78.3¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in August?	No	$245	92.8¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August?	No	$300	81.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?	No	$600	94.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August?	No	$500	94.6¢	Lost
Over $35M committed to the Credible public sale?	No	$300	78.0¢	Won
Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?	No	$100	13.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?	No	$200	73.0¢	Won
Over $40M committed to the Credible public sale?	No	$300	78.7¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?	No	$300	86.0¢	Won
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?	No	$300	80.0¢	Won
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?	No	$500	89.4¢	Won
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	$241	82.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?	No	$200	83.5¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	No	$300	88.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$781	83.9¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?	No	$1000	92.7¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?	No	$300	86.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$300	72.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in July?	No	$300	82.0¢	Won
Will Solana dip to $70 in July?	No	$200	73.0¢	Won

Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s US Open?Won
Yes$30 @ 5.8¢
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?Won
Yes$136 @ 27.3¢
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s US Open?Lost
Yes$50 @ 9.6¢
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s US Open?Lost
Yes$123 @ 23.9¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?Lost
No$1.1k @ 85.9¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?Won
Yes$335 @ 73.4¢
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in August?Won
No$200 @ 92.0¢
Will Iga Swiatek win the 2026 Women’s US Open?Lost
Yes$77 @ 15.0¢
Will Jessica Pegula win the 2026 Women’s US Open?Lost
Yes$49 @ 9.5¢
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?Lost
Yes$285 @ 57.0¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12?Lost
No$2.8k @ 89.8¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?Won
No$500 @ 89.8¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?Won
No$4.2k @ 88.6¢
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?Won
Yes$300 @ 65.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?Won
No$620 @ 95.1¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Won
No$300 @ 90.3¢
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in August?Lost
No$250 @ 83.4¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August?Won
No$344 @ 78.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August?Won
No$120 @ 86.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$790 @ 93.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?Won
No$1000 @ 83.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?Won
No$500 @ 86.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?Won
Yes$100 @ 69.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Won
No$1000 @ 82.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?Won
No$200 @ 75.9¢
Will Solana dip to $60 in August?Won
No$400 @ 80.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in August?Won
No$300 @ 81.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August?Won
No$200 @ 84.0¢
Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by August 31?Won
No$180 @ 83.5¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?Won
No$200 @ 78.3¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in August?Won
No$245 @ 92.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August?Won
No$300 @ 81.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?Won
No$600 @ 94.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August?Lost
No$500 @ 94.6¢
Over $35M committed to the Credible public sale?Won
No$300 @ 78.0¢
Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?Lost
No$100 @ 13.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?Won
No$200 @ 73.0¢
Over $40M committed to the Credible public sale?Won
No$300 @ 78.7¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?Won
No$300 @ 86.0¢
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?Won
No$300 @ 80.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?Won
No$500 @ 89.4¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Won
Yes$241 @ 82.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?Won
No$200 @ 83.5¢
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?Won
No$300 @ 88.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Won
Yes$781 @ 83.9¢
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?Won
No$1000 @ 92.7¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?Won
No$300 @ 86.0¢
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?Won
Yes$300 @ 72.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in July?Won
No$300 @ 82.0¢
Will Solana dip to $70 in July?Won
No$200 @ 73.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in September?	—	No	$4.7k	84.5¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in September?	—	No	$2.9k	89.6¢
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 in September?	—	No	$1.9k	83.2¢
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$1.8k	60.8¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in September?	—	No	$1.7k	81.4¢
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$1.3k	51.7¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in September?	—	No	$1.3k	83.5¢
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	—	Yes	$1.3k	83.4¢
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in September?	—	No	$845	84.5¢
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $56 in September?	—	No	$830	83.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$755	83.7¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in September?	—	No	$710	83.2¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	—	Yes	$688	86.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in September?	—	No	$688	84.7¢
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?	Politics	Yes	$670	66.4¢
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$657	73.6¢
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$625	65.0¢
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in September?	—	No	$503	80.6¢
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	—	Yes	$500	87.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in September?	—	No	$500	74.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in September?	—	No	$410	82.0¢
Will Rui Costa win the most votes in the 2026 Bahia Senate election?	—	Yes	$400	80.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 in September?	—	No	$400	83.8¢
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?	Politics	Yes	$381	58.0¢
Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?	Politics	Yes	$347	80.0¢
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $58 in September?	—	No	$320	82.0¢
Will Raquel Lyra win the Pernambuco Governor election?	—	Yes	$315	63.0¢
Will Eduardo Braide win the Governor of Maranhão election?	Politics	Yes	$300	75.5¢
Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?	—	Yes	$300	82.0¢
Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election?	Politics	Yes	$287	81.0¢

Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in September?—
No$4.7k @ 84.5¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in September?—
No$2.9k @ 89.6¢
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 in September?—
No$1.9k @ 83.2¢
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$1.8k @ 60.8¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in September?—
No$1.7k @ 81.4¢
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$1.3k @ 51.7¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in September?—
No$1.3k @ 83.5¢
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?—
Yes$1.3k @ 83.4¢
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in September?—
No$845 @ 84.5¢
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $56 in September?—
No$830 @ 83.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$755 @ 83.7¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in September?—
No$710 @ 83.2¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?—
Yes$688 @ 86.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in September?—
No$688 @ 84.7¢
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?Politics
Yes$670 @ 66.4¢
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by September 30?Geopolitics
No$657 @ 73.6¢
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30?Geopolitics
No$625 @ 65.0¢
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in September?—
No$503 @ 80.6¢
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?—
Yes$500 @ 87.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in September?—
No$500 @ 74.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in September?—
No$410 @ 82.0¢
Will Rui Costa win the most votes in the 2026 Bahia Senate election?—
Yes$400 @ 80.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 in September?—
No$400 @ 83.8¢
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?Politics
Yes$381 @ 58.0¢
Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?Politics
Yes$347 @ 80.0¢
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $58 in September?—
No$320 @ 82.0¢
Will Raquel Lyra win the Pernambuco Governor election?—
Yes$315 @ 63.0¢
Will Eduardo Braide win the Governor of Maranhão election?Politics
Yes$300 @ 75.5¢
Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?—
Yes$300 @ 82.0¢
Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election?Politics
Yes$287 @ 81.0¢