0xce71…83bc

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xce71bed9dd1418abc34d244730879d795e8683bc
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.5pp

ROI

+10%

Win rate

77% @ 69.7¢

Brier

0.134

Resolved

2239

Avg size

$975

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	70% (30/43)	+15%	43
Other	64% (23/36)	+2%	36
Economy	67% (2/3)	-72%	3
Crypto	100% (3/3)	+142%	3
Geopolitics	50% (1/2)	-65%	2

Politics43 bets
Hit rate
70% (30/43)
ROI
+15%
Other36 bets
Hit rate
64% (23/36)
ROI
+2%
Economy3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
-72%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+142%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-65%

Track record

68% hit · 59/87

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$5.6k	27.4¢	Lost
Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	$1.4k	96.4¢	Won
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	$629	98.3¢	Won
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	$274	85.0¢	Lost
Will Jeannette Jara win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?	Yes	$6.6k	88.7¢	Won
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?	No	$171	6.9¢	Lost
0x1161c3b9…	Yes	$210	42.0¢	Won
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?	No	$12.9k	53.9¢	Lost
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	$1.4k	8.3¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	$391.3k	87.2¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	No	$16.7k	80.7¢	Won
Will Venstre be part of the next Government of Denmark?	No	$24	59.0¢	Won
Will Venstre be part of the next Government of Denmark?	Yes	$62	61.0¢	Lost
Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30?	Yes	$525	49.5¢	Won
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$2.0k	20.0¢	Lost
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election?	No	$31.4k	80.6¢	Won
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	$13.8k	86.3¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$55.9k	36.1¢	Won
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$2.5k	88.2¢	Won
0x3c41f178…	No	$70	72.0¢	Won
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$2.3k	81.5¢	Won
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?	No	$218.3k	83.5¢	Lost
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 16% and 18% of votes in the first round?	Yes	$1.5k	84.4¢	Won
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$22.6k	74.5¢	Won
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?	No	$18.9k	89.5¢	Lost
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	$16	8.0¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	No	$178.8k	65.4¢	Won
Will Douglas Caamaño Quirós win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?	Yes	$2	0.5¢	Lost
Will the Social Democrats be part of the next Government of Denmark?	No	$322	43.4¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?	No	$229.8k	86.7¢	Won
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	No	$24.5k	82.5¢	Won
Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	$4.6k	69.1¢	Lost
Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election?	Yes	$1.4k	70.4¢	Lost
Will Red–Green Alliance be part of the next Government of Denmark?	Yes	$33	24.2¢	Lost
Will SPOLU get between 20% and 23% of the vote in the Czech election?	Yes	$1.3k	13.1¢	Lost
Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	$9	1.1¢	Lost
0x894a2611…	No	$482	50.5¢	Won
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	$85	85.0¢	Won
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?	Yes	$29.8k	89.3¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	$590	59.0¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	$15.7k	82.5¢	Won
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?	No	$6.8k	89.0¢	Won
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?	Yes	$400	20.4¢	Lost
Maduro out by February 28, 2026?	No	$17.8k	88.8¢	Lost
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?	Yes	$15.9k	88.9¢	Won
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	$170	3.4¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?	No	$3.7k	84.7¢	Won
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$21.8k	84.0¢	Won
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	$730	89.1¢	Won
Maduro out in 2025?	No	$232.3k	79.1¢	Won

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
Yes$5.6k @ 27.4¢
Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
No$1.4k @ 96.4¢
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
No$629 @ 98.3¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
No$274 @ 85.0¢
Will Jeannette Jara win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?Won
Yes$6.6k @ 88.7¢
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?Lost
No$171 @ 6.9¢
0x1161c3b9…Won
Yes$210 @ 42.0¢
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?Lost
No$12.9k @ 53.9¢
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?Lost
Yes$1.4k @ 8.3¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$391.3k @ 87.2¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?Won
No$16.7k @ 80.7¢
Will Venstre be part of the next Government of Denmark?Won
No$24 @ 59.0¢
Will Venstre be part of the next Government of Denmark?Lost
Yes$62 @ 61.0¢
Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30?Won
Yes$525 @ 49.5¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$2.0k @ 20.0¢
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election?Won
No$31.4k @ 80.6¢
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?Lost
Yes$13.8k @ 86.3¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$55.9k @ 36.1¢
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?Won
Yes$2.5k @ 88.2¢
0x3c41f178…Won
No$70 @ 72.0¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$2.3k @ 81.5¢
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?Lost
No$218.3k @ 83.5¢
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 16% and 18% of votes in the first round?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 84.4¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
No$22.6k @ 74.5¢
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?Lost
No$18.9k @ 89.5¢
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?Won
Yes$16 @ 8.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?Won
No$178.8k @ 65.4¢
Will Douglas Caamaño Quirós win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.5¢
Will the Social Democrats be part of the next Government of Denmark?Lost
No$322 @ 43.4¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?Won
No$229.8k @ 86.7¢
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?Won
No$24.5k @ 82.5¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Lost
No$4.6k @ 69.1¢
Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election?Lost
Yes$1.4k @ 70.4¢
Will Red–Green Alliance be part of the next Government of Denmark?Lost
Yes$33 @ 24.2¢
Will SPOLU get between 20% and 23% of the vote in the Czech election?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 13.1¢
Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Lost
Yes$9 @ 1.1¢
0x894a2611…Won
No$482 @ 50.5¢
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
No$85 @ 85.0¢
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?Won
Yes$29.8k @ 89.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Lost
Yes$590 @ 59.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Won
No$15.7k @ 82.5¢
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?Won
No$6.8k @ 89.0¢
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?Lost
Yes$400 @ 20.4¢
Maduro out by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$17.8k @ 88.8¢
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?Won
Yes$15.9k @ 88.9¢
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?Lost
Yes$170 @ 3.4¢
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?Won
No$3.7k @ 84.7¢
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
No$21.8k @ 84.0¢
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?Won
Yes$730 @ 89.1¢
Maduro out in 2025?Won
No$232.3k @ 79.1¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$2.0k	92.0¢
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$1.2k	3.3¢

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$2.0k @ 92.0¢
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$1.2k @ 3.3¢