← Smart money
0xce71…83bc
ProfitableEdge
+60.6pp
ROI
+146%
Win rate
100% @ 39.4¢
Brier
0.422
Resolved
142
Avg size
$572
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 100% (5/5) | +8% | 5 |
| Crypto | 100% (2/2) | +205% | 2 |
- Politics5 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (5/5)
- ROI
- +8%
- Crypto2 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (2/2)
- ROI
- +205%
Track record
100% hit · 7/7| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | No | $46.0k | 32.8¢ | Won |
| Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | No | $5.1k | 73.0¢ | Won |
| Graham Platner drops out before Maine Senate Dem primary? | No | $4.0k | 85.1¢ | Won |
| Will Spencer Pratt win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election? | No | $531 | 88.9¢ | Won |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | Yes | $8 | 85.0¢ | Won |
| Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | No | $1.4k | 93.3¢ | Won |
| Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | No | $137.6k | 93.7¢ | Won |
- No$46.0k @ 32.8¢
- No$5.1k @ 73.0¢
- No$4.0k @ 85.1¢
- No$531 @ 88.9¢
- Yes$8 @ 85.0¢
- No$1.4k @ 93.3¢
- No$137.6k @ 93.7¢
Recent trades
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Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? | Politics | Yes | $1.4k | 3.3¢ |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | Economy | Yes | $716 | 71.6¢ |
| Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Politics | No | $379 | 96.4¢ |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Politics | No | $274 | 85.0¢ |
- Yes$1.4k @ 3.3¢
- Fed rate hike in 2026?EconomyYes$716 @ 71.6¢
- No$379 @ 96.4¢
- No$274 @ 85.0¢