0xce60…6705

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xce60927ff2d1b2080b29a3e1a910b9d789ca6705
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.9pp

ROI

+8%

Win rate

45% @ 40.6¢

Brier

0.139

Resolved

2382

Avg size

$16

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	50% (319/642)	+10%	642
Politics	57% (23/40)	-6%	40
Tech	48% (16/33)	+24%	33
Sports	50% (7/14)	-33%	14
Geopolitics	50% (3/6)	+0%	6
Economy	50% (2/4)	+1%	4
Culture	100% (1/1)	+15%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+67%	1
Business	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other642 bets
Hit rate
50% (319/642)
ROI
+10%
Politics40 bets
Hit rate
57% (23/40)
ROI
-6%
Tech33 bets
Hit rate
48% (16/33)
ROI
+24%
Sports14 bets
Hit rate
50% (7/14)
ROI
-33%
Geopolitics6 bets
Hit rate
50% (3/6)
ROI
+0%
Economy4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+1%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+15%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+67%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

50% hit · 372/742

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Microsoft buy TikTok?	No	$23	88.6¢	Won
Will Trump say "Transgender" at Charlie Kirk Memorial Event on September 21?	No	$3	62.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Transgender" at Charlie Kirk Memorial Event on September 21?	Yes	$2	36.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $650b and $660b on January 31?	Yes	$1	3.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $460b and $470b on October 31?	Yes	$3	1.4¢	Won
Will the Australian hero donation campaign reach $1.7 million by Dec 15?	No	$4	1.3¢	Lost
Will anyone say "Polymarket" during South Park's prediction market episode?	No	$36	72.2¢	Lost
Will anyone say "Polymarket" during South Park's prediction market episode?	Yes	$9	45.0¢	Won
Will Kamala Harris say "Democracy" 2+ times on Jimmy Kimmel Live?	Yes	$13	65.0¢	Lost
Will Duke make the 2025 Final Four?	Yes	$10	59.0¢	Won
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	$2	6.0¢	Lost
Will Leavitt say "Hostage" during next White House press briefing?	Yes	$22	74.0¢	Won
Will FIFA ban or suspend Israel in 2025?	No	$71	85.4¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	No	$96	80.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "NATO" during Macron presser today?	Yes	$5	84.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" in November?	No	$4	37.0¢	Lost
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30?	No	$13	50.0¢	Won
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	$88	37.0¢	Lost
Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?	Yes	$30	26.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Escalator" or "Teleprompter" this week? (November 3 - 9)	No	$10	10.0¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after March 2026 meeting?	Yes	$43	87.0¢	Won
Elections go right: October	No	$7	89.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Too late" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?	Yes	$5	40.0¢	Lost
US government shutdown by October 1?	No	$32	69.2¢	Lost
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?	No	$14	70.0¢	Lost
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$10	49.0¢	Won
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?	No	$78	56.7¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	$2.3k	69.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31?	No	$9	60.0¢	Won
Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025?	Yes	$11	55.0¢	Won
Will anyone say "Oligarchy" or "Wall Street" during 1st NYC mayoral debate on October 16?	Yes	$4	47.0¢	Lost
Will Sydney Sweeney rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Actors of 2025?	Yes	$172	68.6¢	Lost
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by December 31?	Yes	$31	10.0¢	Won
Circle IPO in 2025?	Yes	$4	81.7¢	Won
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	$26	13.0¢	Lost
Will Apple acquire Perplexity before September?	No	$5	83.0¢	Won
Will Angus King vote "Yea" on the next funding bill?	Yes	$16	82.0¢	Lost
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	No	$4	2.1¢	Lost
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before June?	Yes	$0	15.0¢	Lost
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by October 31?	No	$18	59.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin hit $90,000 by Wednesday?	No	$60	83.1¢	Won
Weed rescheduled by March 31?	No	$86	64.0¢	Won
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $215 before 2026??	No	$35	88.0¢	Won
Will Nvidia run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?	No	$43	85.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (November 3 - 9)	No	$30	10.0¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA say "TSMC" during earnings call?	No	$4	20.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?	No	$16	62.0¢	Won
Will Cuomo endorse Eric Adams?	No	$17	57.8¢	Won
Will the San Francisco 49ers be the number 1 seed in the NFC?	Yes	$5	5.0¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?	No	$35	36.1¢	Lost

Will Microsoft buy TikTok?Won
No$23 @ 88.6¢
Will Trump say "Transgender" at Charlie Kirk Memorial Event on September 21?Won
No$3 @ 62.0¢
Will Trump say "Transgender" at Charlie Kirk Memorial Event on September 21?Lost
Yes$2 @ 36.0¢
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $650b and $660b on January 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.0¢
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $460b and $470b on October 31?Won
Yes$3 @ 1.4¢
Will the Australian hero donation campaign reach $1.7 million by Dec 15?Lost
No$4 @ 1.3¢
Will anyone say "Polymarket" during South Park's prediction market episode?Lost
No$36 @ 72.2¢
Will anyone say "Polymarket" during South Park's prediction market episode?Won
Yes$9 @ 45.0¢
Will Kamala Harris say "Democracy" 2+ times on Jimmy Kimmel Live?Lost
Yes$13 @ 65.0¢
Will Duke make the 2025 Final Four?Won
Yes$10 @ 59.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 6.0¢
Will Leavitt say "Hostage" during next White House press briefing?Won
Yes$22 @ 74.0¢
Will FIFA ban or suspend Israel in 2025?Won
No$71 @ 85.4¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Won
No$96 @ 80.0¢
Will Trump say "NATO" during Macron presser today?Lost
Yes$5 @ 84.0¢
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" in November?Lost
No$4 @ 37.0¢
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30?Won
No$13 @ 50.0¢
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Lost
Yes$88 @ 37.0¢
Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$30 @ 26.0¢
Will Trump say "Escalator" or "Teleprompter" this week? (November 3 - 9)Lost
No$10 @ 10.0¢
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after March 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$43 @ 87.0¢
Elections go right: OctoberWon
No$7 @ 89.0¢
Will Trump say "Too late" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?Lost
Yes$5 @ 40.0¢
US government shutdown by October 1?Lost
No$32 @ 69.2¢
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Lost
No$14 @ 70.0¢
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?Won
No$10 @ 49.0¢
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?Lost
No$78 @ 56.7¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Won
Yes$2.3k @ 69.0¢
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31?Won
No$9 @ 60.0¢
Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025?Won
Yes$11 @ 55.0¢
Will anyone say "Oligarchy" or "Wall Street" during 1st NYC mayoral debate on October 16?Lost
Yes$4 @ 47.0¢
Will Sydney Sweeney rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Actors of 2025?Lost
Yes$172 @ 68.6¢
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by December 31?Won
Yes$31 @ 10.0¢
Circle IPO in 2025?Won
Yes$4 @ 81.7¢
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Lost
Yes$26 @ 13.0¢
Will Apple acquire Perplexity before September?Won
No$5 @ 83.0¢
Will Angus King vote "Yea" on the next funding bill?Lost
Yes$16 @ 82.0¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$4 @ 2.1¢
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before June?Lost
Yes$0 @ 15.0¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by October 31?Won
No$18 @ 59.0¢
Will Bitcoin hit $90,000 by Wednesday?Won
No$60 @ 83.1¢
Weed rescheduled by March 31?Won
No$86 @ 64.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $215 before 2026??Won
No$35 @ 88.0¢
Will Nvidia run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Won
No$43 @ 85.0¢
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (November 3 - 9)Lost
No$30 @ 10.0¢
Will NVIDIA say "TSMC" during earnings call?Lost
No$4 @ 20.0¢
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?Won
No$16 @ 62.0¢
Will Cuomo endorse Eric Adams?Won
No$17 @ 57.8¢
Will the San Francisco 49ers be the number 1 seed in the NFC?Lost
Yes$5 @ 5.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?Lost
No$35 @ 36.1¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$778	80.0¢
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	Tech	Yes	$646	45.6¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Politics	No	$552	92.0¢
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?	Tech	Yes	$503	14.0¢
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?	Tech	Yes	$498	60.3¢
OpenAI vs Meta — higher valuation on December 31?	Tech	Meta	$443	76.3¢
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.2T and 1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Tech	No	$424	87.3¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?	Tech	No	$423	83.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	Tech	No	$394	85.6¢
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Business	Yes	$320	80.0¢
Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$313	25.7¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$279	85.8¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Politics	Yes	$253	97.2¢
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$234	94.6¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Tech	No	$228	46.6¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.525T by September 30?	Tech	No	$221	98.0¢
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	Politics	No	$216	75.2¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027?	Tech	No	$207	69.0¢
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$199	1.7¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Tech	No	$181	22.8¢
Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	Tech	Yes	$180	23.2¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$156	86.8¢
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?	Tech	Yes	$151	10.2¢
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T?	Tech	No	$148	87.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by September 30?	Tech	No	$139	96.0¢
Trump out as President by September 30?	Politics	No	$120	96.0¢
Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027?	Politics	No	$109	91.6¢
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?	Tech	Yes	$103	47.1¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Tech	No	$101	52.3¢
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) be in the next Swedish government?	Politics	No	$96	96.0¢

Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$778 @ 80.0¢
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?Tech
Yes$646 @ 45.6¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
No$552 @ 92.0¢
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?Tech
Yes$503 @ 14.0¢
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?Tech
Yes$498 @ 60.3¢
OpenAI vs Meta — higher valuation on December 31?Tech
Meta$443 @ 76.3¢
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.2T and 1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?Tech
No$424 @ 87.3¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?Tech
No$423 @ 83.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?Tech
No$394 @ 85.6¢
Anthropic IPO before 2027?Business
Yes$320 @ 80.0¢
Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$313 @ 25.7¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Tech
No$279 @ 85.8¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?Politics
Yes$253 @ 97.2¢
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$234 @ 94.6¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Tech
No$228 @ 46.6¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.525T by September 30?Tech
No$221 @ 98.0¢
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?Politics
No$216 @ 75.2¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027?Tech
No$207 @ 69.0¢
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$199 @ 1.7¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Tech
No$181 @ 22.8¢
Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?Tech
Yes$180 @ 23.2¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$156 @ 86.8¢
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?Tech
Yes$151 @ 10.2¢
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T?Tech
No$148 @ 87.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by September 30?Tech
No$139 @ 96.0¢
Trump out as President by September 30?Politics
No$120 @ 96.0¢
Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027?Politics
No$109 @ 91.6¢
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?Tech
Yes$103 @ 47.1¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Tech
No$101 @ 52.3¢
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) be in the next Swedish government?Politics
No$96 @ 96.0¢