0xce3f…67c9

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xce3f6b3576caccbc7005787d09b519a0997b67c9
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+2.1pp

ROI

+4%

Win rate

42% @ 40.3¢

Brier

0.193

Resolved

4232

Avg size

$15

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	41% (704/1709)	+5%	1709
Politics	29% (9/31)	-29%	31
Sports	25% (2/8)	-46%	8
Geopolitics	0% (0/4)	-100%	4

Other1709 bets
Hit rate
41% (704/1709)
ROI
+5%
Politics31 bets
Hit rate
29% (9/31)
ROI
-29%
Sports8 bets
Hit rate
25% (2/8)
ROI
-46%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/4)
ROI
-100%

Track record

41% hit · 715/1752

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$35	12.8¢	Lost
Bulls vs. Pacers	Bulls	$2	21.0¢	Lost
Reds vs. Pirates	Reds	$8	40.0¢	Lost
Celtics vs. 76ers	76ers	$25	16.6¢	Lost
India air/missile strike on Pakistan soil by Friday?	Yes	$10	20.0¢	Lost
Will 9 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's impeachment before May?	Yes	$1	1.4¢	Lost
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?	Yes	$60	46.0¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Syria on Friday August 29?	Yes	$11	14.0¢	Lost
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17?	Yes	$11	38.0¢	Lost
Knicks vs. Warriors	Knicks	$10	31.0¢	Lost
Dodgers vs. Reds	Reds	$4	40.0¢	Won
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-30?	Yes	$5	28.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump visit India in 2025?	Yes	$12	12.0¢	Lost
Twins vs. Guardians	Twins	$5	46.0¢	Lost
Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in September?	Yes	$42	39.6¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 26, 2026?	Yes	$18	36.0¢	Lost
Cubs vs. Giants	Cubs	$5	54.0¢	Lost
North Korea missile test by September 15?	Yes	$34	11.3¢	Lost
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?	Yes	$177	88.5¢	Won
Will the 2025 Taiwanese referendum pass?	Yes	$457	26.5¢	Lost
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets	Nuggets	$30	27.7¢	Won
Suns vs. Lakers	Lakers	$5	40.0¢	Lost
Yankees vs. Rangers	Yankees	$9	47.0¢	Lost
Rockets vs. Warriors	Rockets	$7	33.0¢	Won
Russian strike on Poland by September 30?	Yes	$3	4.0¢	Lost
Pacers vs. Bucks	Bucks	$20	53.0¢	Won
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6?	Yes	$4	64.1¢	Lost
Spread: Thunder (-10.5)	Thunder	$9	13.0¢	Lost
Tigers vs. Athletics	Tigers	$5	54.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?	No	$107	89.0¢	Won
Diamondbacks vs. Rockies	Diamondbacks	$6	61.0¢	Won
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 1?	No	$28	55.0¢	Won
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 1?	Yes	$27	25.8¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?	Yes	$490	54.4¢	Lost
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?	No	$17	11.5¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?	Yes	$26	26.0¢	Won
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-14?	Yes	$15	56.1¢	Won
Sunderland AFC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	$15	42.0¢	Lost
Lakers vs. Heat	Lakers	$30	42.0¢	Won
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?	No	$8	25.0¢	Lost
Spread: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-1.5)	Chengdu Rongcheng FC	$10	12.0¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by November 30?	Yes	$13	13.5¢	Won
Nationals vs. Marlins	Nationals	$4	42.0¢	Lost
Warriors vs. Spurs	Warriors	$20	28.0¢	Won
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-13?	No	$15	12.2¢	Lost
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025?	Yes	$44	22.1¢	Lost
Will Iran strike East–West Crude Oil Pipeline by April 30?	No	$11	11.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?	Yes	$129	43.0¢	Lost
Celtics vs. Knicks	Celtics	$20	44.0¢	Lost
Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks	Red Sox	$3	33.0¢	Lost

Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$35 @ 12.8¢
Bulls vs. PacersLost
Bulls$2 @ 21.0¢
Reds vs. PiratesLost
Reds$8 @ 40.0¢
Celtics vs. 76ersLost
76ers$25 @ 16.6¢
India air/missile strike on Pakistan soil by Friday?Lost
Yes$10 @ 20.0¢
Will 9 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's impeachment before May?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.4¢
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$60 @ 46.0¢
Will Israel strike Syria on Friday August 29?Lost
Yes$11 @ 14.0¢
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17?Lost
Yes$11 @ 38.0¢
Knicks vs. WarriorsLost
Knicks$10 @ 31.0¢
Dodgers vs. RedsWon
Reds$4 @ 40.0¢
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-30?Won
Yes$5 @ 28.0¢
Will Donald Trump visit India in 2025?Lost
Yes$12 @ 12.0¢
Twins vs. GuardiansLost
Twins$5 @ 46.0¢
Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in September?Lost
Yes$42 @ 39.6¢
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 26, 2026?Lost
Yes$18 @ 36.0¢
Cubs vs. GiantsLost
Cubs$5 @ 54.0¢
North Korea missile test by September 15?Lost
Yes$34 @ 11.3¢
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?Won
Yes$177 @ 88.5¢
Will the 2025 Taiwanese referendum pass?Lost
Yes$457 @ 26.5¢
Trail Blazers vs. NuggetsWon
Nuggets$30 @ 27.7¢
Suns vs. LakersLost
Lakers$5 @ 40.0¢
Yankees vs. RangersLost
Yankees$9 @ 47.0¢
Rockets vs. WarriorsWon
Rockets$7 @ 33.0¢
Russian strike on Poland by September 30?Lost
Yes$3 @ 4.0¢
Pacers vs. BucksWon
Bucks$20 @ 53.0¢
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6?Lost
Yes$4 @ 64.1¢
Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Lost
Thunder$9 @ 13.0¢
Tigers vs. AthleticsLost
Tigers$5 @ 54.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?Won
No$107 @ 89.0¢
Diamondbacks vs. RockiesWon
Diamondbacks$6 @ 61.0¢
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 1?Won
No$28 @ 55.0¢
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 1?Lost
Yes$27 @ 25.8¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?Lost
Yes$490 @ 54.4¢
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?Lost
No$17 @ 11.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July 15?Won
Yes$26 @ 26.0¢
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-14?Won
Yes$15 @ 56.1¢
Sunderland AFC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to ScoreLost
Yes$15 @ 42.0¢
Lakers vs. HeatWon
Lakers$30 @ 42.0¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Lost
No$8 @ 25.0¢
Spread: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-1.5)Lost
Chengdu Rongcheng FC$10 @ 12.0¢
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by November 30?Won
Yes$13 @ 13.5¢
Nationals vs. MarlinsLost
Nationals$4 @ 42.0¢
Warriors vs. SpursWon
Warriors$20 @ 28.0¢
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-13?Lost
No$15 @ 12.2¢
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? Lost
Yes$44 @ 22.1¢
Will Iran strike East–West Crude Oil Pipeline by April 30?Lost
No$11 @ 11.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?Lost
Yes$129 @ 43.0¢
Celtics vs. KnicksLost
Celtics$20 @ 44.0¢
Red Sox vs. DiamondbacksLost
Red Sox$3 @ 33.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	Politics	No	$726	79.2¢
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Economy	Yes	$232	58.0¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$91	41.5¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison?	Politics	Yes	$28	14.0¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$28	28.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$26	29.0¢
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$8	26.0¢
Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$6	11.0¢

Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?Politics
No$726 @ 79.2¢
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?Economy
Yes$232 @ 58.0¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$91 @ 41.5¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison?Politics
Yes$28 @ 14.0¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$28 @ 28.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$26 @ 29.0¢
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$8 @ 26.0¢
Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026?Politics
Yes$6 @ 11.0¢