0xce03…5608

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xce03fd57934ba9dd4fc3d32973b4b0a192895608
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.1pp

ROI

+21%

Win rate

58% @ 51.0¢

Brier

0.158

Resolved

643

Avg size

$114

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	50% (76/151)	+22%	151
Politics	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other151 bets
Hit rate
50% (76/151)
ROI
+22%
Politics2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

49% hit · 76/154

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Roaring Kitty tweet again by December 31?	No	$87	87.0¢	Won
GPT ads by December 31?	Yes	$100	10.7¢	Lost
Meteora FDV above $750M one day after launch?	No	$3.0k	43.2¢	Won
Meteora FDV above $750M one day after launch?	Yes	$457	83.9¢	Lost
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?	Yes	$100	64.0¢	Lost
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before 2026?	No	$588	75.1¢	Won
No airdrop in 2025?	No	$329	82.2¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?	Yes	$17	1.7¢	Lost
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	Yes	$10	59.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?	No	$2.2k	73.1¢	Won
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 5–10%?	No	$200	64.8¢	Lost
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch?	No	$200	89.2¢	Won
Will Gainzy appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?	Yes	$20	11.1¢	Lost
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	No	$1.0k	58.1¢	Won
Trove FDV above $10M one day after launch?	No	$73	73.0¢	Won
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	Yes	$310	62.0¢	Won
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 9?	Yes	$60	6.0¢	Lost
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	$50	50.0¢	Lost
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25?	Yes	$49	49.0¢	Won
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	$5.9k	45.7¢	Won
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	$162	54.0¢	Lost
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election?	Yes	$14	0.4¢	Lost
Ansem mindshare all time high by March 31?	No	$10	64.0¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$242	5.7¢	Lost
Over $3M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	Yes	$175	87.5¢	Won
Will the Jupiter proposal to burn 130,000,000 $JUP pass?	No	$20	7.1¢	Lost
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?	No	$20	45.6¢	Lost
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?	Yes	$974	56.6¢	Won
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?	No	$979	69.9¢	Won
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?	No	$200	72.8¢	Won
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?	Yes	$800	70.0¢	Lost
Will Google One be #1 Grossing App in Play Store on December 19?	No	$8	1.3¢	Lost
Pump.fun all time high by December 31?	Yes	$546	33.4¢	Lost
Will Türkiye win on 2025-11-18?	Yes	$20	7.8¢	Lost
Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-19?	Yes	$100	29.0¢	Lost
ETHGAS FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	$20	13.9¢	Lost
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10-20%?	Yes	$216	57.6¢	Lost
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch?	No	$280	81.4¢	Won
Rolex Paris Masters: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Alexander Zverev	Zverev	$20	84.0¢	Won
threadguy mindshare all time high by March 31?	No	$5	24.0¢	Won
US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$100	88.0¢	Won
Will ZachXBT release his investigation on February 28?	Yes	$11	0.7¢	Lost
Will Jeff Yan appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?	Yes	$272	78.3¢	Lost
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-19?	Yes	$94	69.0¢	Won
Will Guinea win on 2025-10-14?	No	$100	47.0¢	Won
Will ZachXBT release his investigation on February 26?	No	$10	4.5¢	Lost
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Yes	$6	1.4¢	Lost
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?	Yes	$192	32.0¢	Lost
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-21?	Yes	$12	29.0¢	Lost
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?	Yes	$100	67.8¢	Won

Will Roaring Kitty tweet again by December 31?Won
No$87 @ 87.0¢
GPT ads by December 31?Lost
Yes$100 @ 10.7¢
Meteora FDV above $750M one day after launch?Won
No$3.0k @ 43.2¢
Meteora FDV above $750M one day after launch?Lost
Yes$457 @ 83.9¢
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?Lost
Yes$100 @ 64.0¢
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before 2026?Won
No$588 @ 75.1¢
No airdrop in 2025?Won
No$329 @ 82.2¢
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?Lost
Yes$17 @ 1.7¢
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?Won
Yes$10 @ 59.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?Won
No$2.2k @ 73.1¢
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 5–10%?Lost
No$200 @ 64.8¢
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch?Won
No$200 @ 89.2¢
Will Gainzy appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?Lost
Yes$20 @ 11.1¢
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?Won
No$1.0k @ 58.1¢
Trove FDV above $10M one day after launch?Won
No$73 @ 73.0¢
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?Won
Yes$310 @ 62.0¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 9?Lost
Yes$60 @ 6.0¢
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?Lost
Yes$50 @ 50.0¢
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25?Won
Yes$49 @ 49.0¢
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?Won
No$5.9k @ 45.7¢
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?Lost
Yes$162 @ 54.0¢
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election?Lost
Yes$14 @ 0.4¢
Ansem mindshare all time high by March 31?Won
No$10 @ 64.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$242 @ 5.7¢
Over $3M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?Won
Yes$175 @ 87.5¢
Will the Jupiter proposal to burn 130,000,000 $JUP pass?Lost
No$20 @ 7.1¢
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?Lost
No$20 @ 45.6¢
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?Won
Yes$974 @ 56.6¢
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?Won
No$979 @ 69.9¢
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?Won
No$200 @ 72.8¢
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?Lost
Yes$800 @ 70.0¢
Will Google One be #1 Grossing App in Play Store on December 19?Lost
No$8 @ 1.3¢
Pump.fun all time high by December 31?Lost
Yes$546 @ 33.4¢
Will Türkiye win on 2025-11-18?Lost
Yes$20 @ 7.8¢
Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-19?Lost
Yes$100 @ 29.0¢
ETHGAS FDV above $200M one day after launch?Lost
No$20 @ 13.9¢
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10-20%?Lost
Yes$216 @ 57.6¢
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch?Won
No$280 @ 81.4¢
Rolex Paris Masters: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Alexander ZverevWon
Zverev$20 @ 84.0¢
threadguy mindshare all time high by March 31?Won
No$5 @ 24.0¢
US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$100 @ 88.0¢
Will ZachXBT release his investigation on February 28?Lost
Yes$11 @ 0.7¢
Will Jeff Yan appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?Lost
Yes$272 @ 78.3¢
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-19?Won
Yes$94 @ 69.0¢
Will Guinea win on 2025-10-14?Won
No$100 @ 47.0¢
Will ZachXBT release his investigation on February 26?Lost
No$10 @ 4.5¢
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?Lost
Yes$6 @ 1.4¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?Lost
Yes$192 @ 32.0¢
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-21?Lost
Yes$12 @ 29.0¢
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?Won
Yes$100 @ 67.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$4.2k	62.8¢
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$3.9k	72.5¢
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$2.1k	47.6¢
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$1.6k	40.8¢
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$181	33.0¢
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$98	57.5¢

Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?Crypto
No$4.2k @ 62.8¢
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?Crypto
No$3.9k @ 72.5¢
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?Crypto
No$2.1k @ 47.6¢
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?Crypto
No$1.6k @ 40.8¢
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?Crypto
No$181 @ 33.0¢
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?Crypto
No$98 @ 57.5¢