0xcdf8…b8ea

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xcdf82242c9984bd8d274085ab54165633c54b8ea
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

-6.9pp

ROI

+8%

Win rate

24% @ 31.2¢

Brier

0.075

Resolved

276

Avg size

$95

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	73% (8/11)	+10%	11
Sports	50% (2/4)	-3%	4
Tech	100% (1/1)	+18%	1
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+25%	1

Other11 bets
Hit rate
73% (8/11)
ROI
+10%
Sports4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
-3%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+18%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+25%

Track record

71% hit · 12/17

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	No	$361	89.9¢	Won
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	Yes	$2.1k	50.6¢	Won
NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Lakers Total Games O/U 5.5	Under 5.5	$38	76.0¢	Won
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$200	66.0¢	Lost
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Yes	$823	82.3¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$1.7k	84.8¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$56	79.9¢	Won
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?	Yes	$10	81.0¢	Won
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	$827	8.3¢	Lost
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$3.2k	79.4¢	Won
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?	Yes	$1.7k	42.4¢	Lost
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$1.3k	63.9¢	Lost
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	$5.5k	55.0¢	Won
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June?	No	$413	86.6¢	Won
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	$2.9k	29.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?	No	$279	93.0¢	Won
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$9.8k	97.9¢	Won

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?Won
No$361 @ 89.9¢
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?Won
Yes$2.1k @ 50.6¢
NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Lakers Total Games O/U 5.5Won
Under 5.5$38 @ 76.0¢
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$200 @ 66.0¢
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?Won
Yes$823 @ 82.3¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Won
Yes$1.7k @ 84.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$56 @ 79.9¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?Won
Yes$10 @ 81.0¢
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League?Lost
Yes$827 @ 8.3¢
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?Won
Yes$3.2k @ 79.4¢
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?Lost
Yes$1.7k @ 42.4¢
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 63.9¢
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?Won
Yes$5.5k @ 55.0¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June?Won
No$413 @ 86.6¢
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?Lost
Yes$2.9k @ 29.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?Won
No$279 @ 93.0¢
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$9.8k @ 97.9¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?	—	Yes	$3.0k	99.5¢
Trump out as President by August 31?	—	No	$3.0k	99.2¢
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Politics	Yes	$3.0k	98.9¢
Will GPT-6 be released by August 7, 2026?	Tech	No	$3.0k	98.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?	—	Yes	$3.0k	98.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	—	No	$2.9k	97.9¢
Will Mark Sanford be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	—	No	$2.9k	97.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?	—	Yes	$2.9k	97.3¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?	—	No	$2.9k	97.2¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026?	—	No	$2.9k	97.0¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Politics	No	$2.9k	96.6¢
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Politics	No	$2.9k	96.9¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	No	$2.9k	95.8¢
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Politics	No	$2.9k	95.7¢
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	No	$2.9k	95.7¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?	—	No	$2.9k	95.3¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	No	$2.8k	94.0¢
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$2.8k	92.8¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	—	Yes	$2.8k	93.3¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Politics	No	$2.8k	90.8¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?	—	No	$2.7k	91.5¢
Will Brian Mundubile win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?	—	No	$2.7k	91.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$2.7k	90.3¢
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$2.7k	91.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	—	No	$2.7k	90.0¢
Iran leadership change by September 30?	Politics	No	$2.7k	90.0¢
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$2.7k	89.7¢
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	—	No	$2.6k	94.5¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Culture	No	$2.6k	87.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$2.6k	84.8¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?—
Yes$3.0k @ 99.5¢
Trump out as President by August 31?—
No$3.0k @ 99.2¢
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?Politics
Yes$3.0k @ 98.9¢
Will GPT-6 be released by August 7, 2026?Tech
No$3.0k @ 98.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?—
Yes$3.0k @ 98.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?—
No$2.9k @ 97.9¢
Will Mark Sanford be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?—
No$2.9k @ 97.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?—
Yes$2.9k @ 97.3¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?—
No$2.9k @ 97.2¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026?—
No$2.9k @ 97.0¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Politics
No$2.9k @ 96.6¢
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?Politics
No$2.9k @ 96.9¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
No$2.9k @ 95.8¢
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Politics
No$2.9k @ 95.7¢
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
No$2.9k @ 95.7¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?—
No$2.9k @ 95.3¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
No$2.8k @ 94.0¢
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?Politics
Yes$2.8k @ 92.8¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?—
Yes$2.8k @ 93.3¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Politics
No$2.8k @ 90.8¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?—
No$2.7k @ 91.5¢
Will Brian Mundubile win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?—
No$2.7k @ 91.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?Politics
No$2.7k @ 90.3¢
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$2.7k @ 91.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?—
No$2.7k @ 90.0¢
Iran leadership change by September 30?Politics
No$2.7k @ 90.0¢
China x Japan military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
No$2.7k @ 89.7¢
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?—
No$2.6k @ 94.5¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?Culture
No$2.6k @ 87.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$2.6k @ 84.8¢