0xcdc0…dcd8

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xcdc0f64c8de7c3c5ab2a49ff4af4162cee5adcd8
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.2pp

ROI

+26%

Win rate

60% @ 50.8¢

Brier

0.192

Resolved

3353

Avg size

$139

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	44% (110/250)	+28%	250
Sports	55% (22/40)	+1%	40
Tech	62% (8/13)	-27%	13
Crypto	40% (2/5)	-38%	5
Politics	100% (1/1)	+14%	1
Economy	100% (1/1)	+113%	1

Other250 bets
Hit rate
44% (110/250)
ROI
+28%
Sports40 bets
Hit rate
55% (22/40)
ROI
+1%
Tech13 bets
Hit rate
62% (8/13)
ROI
-27%
Crypto5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
-38%
Politics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+14%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+113%

Track record

46% hit · 144/310

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	$352	35.2¢	Won
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January?	Yes	$454	56.7¢	Won
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$222	67.6¢	Won
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?	Yes	$58	29.0¢	Lost
Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?	Yes	$86	43.0¢	Lost
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	No	$30	33.0¢	Lost
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	No	$8	84.0¢	Won
Kamala flips a 2020 Trump state?	No	$62	62.0¢	Won
No airdrop in 2025?	No	$8.4k	84.6¢	Won
Google forced to sell Chrome?	Yes	$133	18.0¢	Lost
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	No	$10	34.0¢	Won
Infinex FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	$282	35.3¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	$5.2k	84.0¢	Won
Uruguay leading at halftime?	Yes	$4	48.0¢	Lost
Australian Open: Alcaraz vs. Djokovic	Alcaraz	$386	59.4¢	Lost
Australian Open: Alcaraz vs. Djokovic	Djokovic	$156	78.0¢	Won
Will Silver (SI) settle over $80 on the final trading day of February 2026?	Yes	$113	45.0¢	Won
Will the Ravens win Super Bowl 2025?	Yes	$141	10.5¢	Lost
USD.AI FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	$186	62.0¢	Won
Ethereum all time high before 2026?	Yes	$24	30.0¢	Won
Will Paradex launch a token on March 5?	Yes	$151	76.0¢	Won
Australian Open Men's: Marin Cilic vs Casper Ruud	Ruud	$69	69.0¢	Won
Will Paradex launch a token by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$107	54.0¢	Lost
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?	Yes	$91	30.3¢	Lost
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain?	Yes	$11	11.0¢	Lost
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	No	$63	27.0¢	Lost
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	$375	75.0¢	Won
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	$262	60.2¢	Won
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	$3.2k	63.5¢	Won
Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during his inauguration speech?	Yes	$387	26.2¢	Lost
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	Over	$440	44.0¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	No	$860	86.0¢	Won
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	$2.5k	77.0¢	Won
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?	No	$326	30.4¢	Lost
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?	Yes	$750	75.0¢	Won
First to 5k: Gold or ETH?	Gold	$254	74.0¢	Won
Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	$636	82.1¢	Won
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?	No	$315	62.2¢	Lost
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?	Yes	$387	85.9¢	Won
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League?	No	$18.2k	86.5¢	Won
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	$163	64.0¢	Won
Will Trump win 3 swing states?	Yes	$100	11.0¢	Lost
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	$2.6k	47.1¢	Won
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?	No	$289	28.9¢	Won
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?	Yes	$4.9k	40.6¢	Lost
Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election?	No	$200	9.8¢	Lost
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women's Australian Open?	No	$340	42.5¢	Won
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	No	$12	63.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Biden" during his inauguration speech?	Yes	$89	89.0¢	Won
Will either Kamala or Trump win every swing state?	No	$25	77.0¢	Lost

Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?Won
No$352 @ 35.2¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January?Won
Yes$454 @ 56.7¢
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$222 @ 67.6¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Lost
Yes$58 @ 29.0¢
Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?Lost
Yes$86 @ 43.0¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Lost
No$30 @ 33.0¢
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?Won
No$8 @ 84.0¢
Kamala flips a 2020 Trump state?Won
No$62 @ 62.0¢
No airdrop in 2025?Won
No$8.4k @ 84.6¢
Google forced to sell Chrome?Lost
Yes$133 @ 18.0¢
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?Won
No$10 @ 34.0¢
Infinex FDV above $300M one day after launch?Lost
Yes$282 @ 35.3¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Won
Yes$5.2k @ 84.0¢
Uruguay leading at halftime?Lost
Yes$4 @ 48.0¢
Australian Open: Alcaraz vs. DjokovicLost
Alcaraz$386 @ 59.4¢
Australian Open: Alcaraz vs. DjokovicWon
Djokovic$156 @ 78.0¢
Will Silver (SI) settle over $80 on the final trading day of February 2026?Won
Yes$113 @ 45.0¢
Will the Ravens win Super Bowl 2025?Lost
Yes$141 @ 10.5¢
USD.AI FDV above $800M one day after launch?Won
Yes$186 @ 62.0¢
Ethereum all time high before 2026?Won
Yes$24 @ 30.0¢
Will Paradex launch a token on March 5?Won
Yes$151 @ 76.0¢
Australian Open Men's: Marin Cilic vs Casper RuudWon
Ruud$69 @ 69.0¢
Will Paradex launch a token by February 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$107 @ 54.0¢
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?Lost
Yes$91 @ 30.3¢
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain?Lost
Yes$11 @ 11.0¢
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?Lost
No$63 @ 27.0¢
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?Won
No$375 @ 75.0¢
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?Won
Yes$262 @ 60.2¢
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?Won
No$3.2k @ 63.5¢
Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during his inauguration speech?Lost
Yes$387 @ 26.2¢
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5Won
Over$440 @ 44.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Won
No$860 @ 86.0¢
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?Won
No$2.5k @ 77.0¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?Lost
No$326 @ 30.4¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?Won
Yes$750 @ 75.0¢
First to 5k: Gold or ETH?Won
Gold$254 @ 74.0¢
Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch?Won
No$636 @ 82.1¢
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?Lost
No$315 @ 62.2¢
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?Won
Yes$387 @ 85.9¢
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League?Won
No$18.2k @ 86.5¢
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?Won
Yes$163 @ 64.0¢
Will Trump win 3 swing states?Lost
Yes$100 @ 11.0¢
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?Won
Yes$2.6k @ 47.1¢
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?Won
No$289 @ 28.9¢
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?Lost
Yes$4.9k @ 40.6¢
Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election?Lost
No$200 @ 9.8¢
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women's Australian Open?Won
No$340 @ 42.5¢
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Lost
No$12 @ 63.0¢
Will Trump say "Biden" during his inauguration speech?Won
Yes$89 @ 89.0¢
Will either Kamala or Trump win every swing state?Lost
No$25 @ 77.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Politics	No	$7.1k	88.5¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$3.0k	43.2¢
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$2.8k	78.5¢
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$2.0k	31.3¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	Tech	No	$1.6k	79.0¢
Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$1.4k	68.0¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.3k	36.1¢
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$1.1k	73.1¢
Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$952	80.3¢
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$910	60.7¢
Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$860	87.0¢
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$640	67.1¢
Hyperbeat FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$553	91.7¢
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$461	77.0¢
Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$460	91.9¢
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$410	82.0¢
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Tech	No	$393	78.7¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of December?	Other	Yes	$287	4.1¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$258	25.6¢
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$257	55.8¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$175	55.0¢
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$159	84.0¢
Hyperbeat FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$127	77.6¢
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$105	68.1¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?	Other	Yes	$80	4.0¢
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$63	81.0¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December?	Other	Yes	$49	3.1¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$44	4.4¢
OKX IPO in 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$26	25.2¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	Other	Yes	$4	4.2¢

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
No$7.1k @ 88.5¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$3.0k @ 43.2¢
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?Crypto
No$2.8k @ 78.5¢
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?Crypto
No$2.0k @ 31.3¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?Tech
No$1.6k @ 79.0¢
Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?Crypto
No$1.4k @ 68.0¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Politics
Yes$1.3k @ 36.1¢
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?Crypto
No$1.1k @ 73.1¢
Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?Crypto
Yes$952 @ 80.3¢
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$910 @ 60.7¢
Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch?Crypto
No$860 @ 87.0¢
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$640 @ 67.1¢
Hyperbeat FDV above $100M one day after launch?Crypto
No$553 @ 91.7¢
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$461 @ 77.0¢
Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?Crypto
Yes$460 @ 91.9¢
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$410 @ 82.0¢
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?Tech
No$393 @ 78.7¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of December?Other
Yes$287 @ 4.1¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$258 @ 25.6¢
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$257 @ 55.8¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$175 @ 55.0¢
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?Crypto
No$159 @ 84.0¢
Hyperbeat FDV above $50M one day after launch?Crypto
No$127 @ 77.6¢
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$105 @ 68.1¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?Other
Yes$80 @ 4.0¢
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?Crypto
No$63 @ 81.0¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December?Other
Yes$49 @ 3.1¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$44 @ 4.4¢
OKX IPO in 2026?Crypto
Yes$26 @ 25.2¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?Other
Yes$4 @ 4.2¢