0xcd6b…68f5

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xcd6be6693e2bc11150d397caa9e6f7c6744b68f5
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+1.8pp

ROI

+14%

Win rate

30% @ 27.9¢

Brier

0.123

Resolved

4276

Avg size

$74

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	40% (267/660)	+18%	660
Politics	39% (29/75)	+8%	75
Sports	28% (10/36)	+185%	36
Geopolitics	11% (2/18)	-93%	18
Economy	40% (2/5)	+16%	5
Tech	25% (1/4)	-54%	4
Crypto	25% (1/4)	+315%	4
Science	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Business	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other660 bets
Hit rate
40% (267/660)
ROI
+18%
Politics75 bets
Hit rate
39% (29/75)
ROI
+8%
Sports36 bets
Hit rate
28% (10/36)
ROI
+185%
Geopolitics18 bets
Hit rate
11% (2/18)
ROI
-93%
Economy5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
+16%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
-54%
Crypto4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
+315%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

39% hit · 312/804

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$302	60.4¢	Lost
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?	No	$1.6k	77.2¢	Won
Will Trump say "Iran" during meetings with Chancellor Merz?	No	$2	1.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Iran" during meetings with Chancellor Merz?	Yes	$108	77.2¢	Won
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	Yes	$9	8.0¢	Won
GPT ads by December 31?	Yes	$47	11.8¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump visit India in 2025?	No	$61	61.0¢	Won
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?	No	$148	74.0¢	Won
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?	Yes	$90	9.0¢	Lost
Will Trump pardon CZ by October 31?	No	$10	1.0¢	Lost
Will Leavitt say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 5+ times during next White House press briefing?	Yes	$27	27.0¢	Lost
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?	No	$1.9k	82.2¢	Won
Tulsi Gabbard out by March 31?	Yes	$267	14.0¢	Lost
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?	No	$22	22.0¢	Lost
Will Alexander Isak be the top goalscorer in the EPL?	Yes	$4	0.7¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in October?	No	$16	0.4¢	Lost
Will Barcelona advance to the round of 16?	No	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	Yes	$108	76.6¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$841	52.6¢	Lost
TikTok sale announced by September 30?	Yes	$133	17.0¢	Lost
Will Paul Hounkpè be the next President of Benin?	Yes	$1	3.0¢	Lost
Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?	Yes	$110	11.0¢	Lost
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords in 2025?	Yes	$546	12.5¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?	Yes	$2	8.0¢	Lost
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025?	Yes	$355	17.0¢	Lost
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	$7	27.0¢	Won
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?	No	$280	76.0¢	Won
Will the team that wins the 2025-26 Super Bowl play in the AFC East?	Yes	$2	1.0¢	Lost
Will France strike Iran by March 31?	No	$1.2k	48.7¢	Won
OpenAI browser by September 30?	Yes	$19	6.3¢	Lost
Will the Government shutdown end by October 31?	Yes	$168	25.6¢	Lost
Will the Baltimore Ravens be the Top Defense/Special Teams of the 2025–26 NFL Regular Season?	Yes	$0	1.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Maduro" during Cabinet meeting on March 26?	No	$18	28.2¢	Won
SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?	No	$20	2.0¢	Lost
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30?	No	$405	81.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$657	9.3¢	Lost
Maduro leaves Venezuela by December 31?	Yes	$46	23.0¢	Lost
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting?	Yes	$6	1.1¢	Lost
Vidal vs. Rodrigues	Vidal	$20	2.0¢	Lost
Will Michael Olise be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga season?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$9.0k	23.1¢	Lost
Will there be no new Prime Minister of France?	No	$61	34.2¢	Won
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?	Yes	$134	22.3¢	Won
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$436	20.5¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Ursula von der Leyen in January 2026?	Yes	$186	45.8¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by May 31, 2026?	No	$8	42.0¢	Won
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?	No	$277	64.3¢	Won
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$130	13.0¢	Lost
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$120	1.2¢	Lost
Will Taylor Swift's appearance on New Heights get between 30 and 40 million views the first week?	Yes	$13	6.7¢	Lost

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
Yes$302 @ 60.4¢
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$1.6k @ 77.2¢
Will Trump say "Iran" during meetings with Chancellor Merz?Lost
No$2 @ 1.0¢
Will Trump say "Iran" during meetings with Chancellor Merz?Won
Yes$108 @ 77.2¢
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Won
Yes$9 @ 8.0¢
GPT ads by December 31?Lost
Yes$47 @ 11.8¢
Will Donald Trump visit India in 2025?Won
No$61 @ 61.0¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Won
No$148 @ 74.0¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Lost
Yes$90 @ 9.0¢
Will Trump pardon CZ by October 31?Lost
No$10 @ 1.0¢
Will Leavitt say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 5+ times during next White House press briefing?Lost
Yes$27 @ 27.0¢
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?Won
No$1.9k @ 82.2¢
Tulsi Gabbard out by March 31?Lost
Yes$267 @ 14.0¢
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?Lost
No$22 @ 22.0¢
Will Alexander Isak be the top goalscorer in the EPL?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.7¢
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in October?Lost
No$16 @ 0.4¢
Will Barcelona advance to the round of 16?Lost
No$1 @ 1.0¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Won
Yes$108 @ 76.6¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$841 @ 52.6¢
TikTok sale announced by September 30?Lost
Yes$133 @ 17.0¢
Will Paul Hounkpè be the next President of Benin?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.0¢
Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?Lost
Yes$110 @ 11.0¢
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords in 2025?Lost
Yes$546 @ 12.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?Lost
Yes$2 @ 8.0¢
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? Lost
Yes$355 @ 17.0¢
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Won
No$7 @ 27.0¢
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?Won
No$280 @ 76.0¢
Will the team that wins the 2025-26 Super Bowl play in the AFC East?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.0¢
Will France strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$1.2k @ 48.7¢
OpenAI browser by September 30?Lost
Yes$19 @ 6.3¢
Will the Government shutdown end by October 31?Lost
Yes$168 @ 25.6¢
Will the Baltimore Ravens be the Top Defense/Special Teams of the 2025–26 NFL Regular Season?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.0¢
Will Trump say "Maduro" during Cabinet meeting on March 26?Won
No$18 @ 28.2¢
SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?Lost
No$20 @ 2.0¢
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30?Won
No$405 @ 81.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$657 @ 9.3¢
Maduro leaves Venezuela by December 31?Lost
Yes$46 @ 23.0¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$6 @ 1.1¢
Vidal vs. RodriguesLost
Vidal$20 @ 2.0¢
Will Michael Olise be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga season?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$9.0k @ 23.1¢
Will there be no new Prime Minister of France?Won
No$61 @ 34.2¢
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?Won
Yes$134 @ 22.3¢
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$436 @ 20.5¢
Will Trump meet with Ursula von der Leyen in January 2026?Lost
Yes$186 @ 45.8¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by May 31, 2026?Won
No$8 @ 42.0¢
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$277 @ 64.3¢
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$130 @ 13.0¢
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$120 @ 1.2¢
Will Taylor Swift's appearance on New Heights get between 30 and 40 million views the first week?Lost
Yes$13 @ 6.7¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$10.1k	80.6¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$9.5k	50.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$9.5k	50.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$5.0k	55.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$2.3k	45.1¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$2.1k	69.0¢
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	No	$1.4k	47.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$1.2k	11.5¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$1000	10.0¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$837	83.6¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$622	62.2¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$579	28.9¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$505	50.5¢
Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027?	Crypto	Yes	$428	21.2¢
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$350	17.5¢
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$143	4.3¢
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$130	27.2¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$100	20.0¢
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Sports	Yes	$100	5.0¢
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	Politics	Yes	$55	21.0¢
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Economy	Yes	$23	0.5¢
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?	Science	Yes	$16	8.0¢
Will Dune: Messiah have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Culture	Yes	$11	1.7¢
Natural Disaster in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$4	3.0¢

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Politics
No$10.1k @ 80.6¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$9.5k @ 50.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$9.5k @ 50.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$5.0k @ 55.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
Yes$2.3k @ 45.1¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$2.1k @ 69.0¢
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
No$1.4k @ 47.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$1.2k @ 11.5¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$1000 @ 10.0¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?Politics
No$837 @ 83.6¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$622 @ 62.2¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$579 @ 28.9¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$505 @ 50.5¢
Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027?Crypto
Yes$428 @ 21.2¢
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?Crypto
Yes$350 @ 17.5¢
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$143 @ 4.3¢
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$130 @ 27.2¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
Yes$100 @ 20.0¢
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship?Sports
Yes$100 @ 5.0¢
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?Politics
Yes$55 @ 21.0¢
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy
Yes$23 @ 0.5¢
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?Science
Yes$16 @ 8.0¢
Will Dune: Messiah have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Culture
Yes$11 @ 1.7¢
Natural Disaster in 2026?Tech
Yes$4 @ 3.0¢