0xcd6b…68f5

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xcd6be6693e2bc11150d397caa9e6f7c6744b68f5
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

-8.8pp

ROI

+3%

Win rate

26% @ 34.8¢

Brier

0.133

Resolved

496

Avg size

$116

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	40% (19/48)	-4%	48
Politics	39% (14/36)	-1%	36
Sports	22% (4/18)	-35%	18
Geopolitics	0% (0/5)	-100%	5
Tech	25% (1/4)	-44%	4
Science	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+418%	1

Other48 bets
Hit rate
40% (19/48)
ROI
-4%
Politics36 bets
Hit rate
39% (14/36)
ROI
-1%
Sports18 bets
Hit rate
22% (4/18)
ROI
-35%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/5)
ROI
-100%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
-44%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+418%

Track record

34% hit · 39/114

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	Yes	$9	8.0¢	Won
Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?	Yes	$110	11.0¢	Lost
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30?	No	$405	81.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$9.0k	23.1¢	Lost
Will 4–5 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?	No	$52	58.0¢	Won
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets	Lakers	$88	88.8¢	Won
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$360	72.0¢	Won
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	Yes	$6	71.0¢	Won
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	Yes	$806	68.2¢	Won
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	No	$100	10.0¢	Won
Will Burnley finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?	Yes	$6	24.6¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$159	26.5¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$1.1k	54.0¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$1.1k	69.3¢	Won
Will Trump say "Iran" or "Oil" 13+ times during CNBC: Squawk Box appearance on April 21?	Yes	$39	78.0¢	Lost
Will Juanma Moreno be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election?	No	$30	3.0¢	Lost
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$380	1.9¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$289	19.3¢	Won
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$18	9.0¢	Lost
Will a team from Spain be the 2026 Champions League winner?	Yes	$55	27.9¢	Lost
Will Eric Swalwell advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	$105	21.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	Yes	$232	66.5¢	Lost
Will anyone be kicked out of the WHCA Dinner?	Yes	$116	88.0¢	Won
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	$190	19.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$2.5k	19.6¢	Lost
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	$130	2.4¢	Lost
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$373	45.3¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	$1.4k	45.2¢	Won
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	$400	20.9¢	Lost
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	$338	64.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$138	11.1¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	$335	67.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$10.0k	41.0¢	Won
Megaquake by June 30?	Yes	$157	19.0¢	Lost
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$78	30.0¢	Lost
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	$46	23.0¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	$24	23.9¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Too Late" or "Fed" during Fox interview on Wednesday?	Yes	$39	78.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?	No	$437	61.1¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?	Yes	$673	37.4¢	Lost
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$460	23.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$405	4.5¢	Lost
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.1k	35.1¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?	No	$252	51.7¢	Won
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	$130	56.0¢	Lost
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	$820	41.0¢	Won
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?	No	$649	57.2¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$145	29.0¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$18	1.8¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?	Yes	$350	70.0¢	Lost

Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Won
Yes$9 @ 8.0¢
Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?Lost
Yes$110 @ 11.0¢
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30?Won
No$405 @ 81.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$9.0k @ 23.1¢
Will 4–5 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?Won
No$52 @ 58.0¢
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets Won
Lakers$88 @ 88.8¢
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$360 @ 72.0¢
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Won
Yes$6 @ 71.0¢
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?Won
Yes$806 @ 68.2¢
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionWon
No$100 @ 10.0¢
Will Burnley finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?Lost
Yes$6 @ 24.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
No$159 @ 26.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 54.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$1.1k @ 69.3¢
Will Trump say "Iran" or "Oil" 13+ times during CNBC: Squawk Box appearance on April 21?Lost
Yes$39 @ 78.0¢
Will Juanma Moreno be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election?Lost
No$30 @ 3.0¢
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$380 @ 1.9¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$289 @ 19.3¢
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$18 @ 9.0¢
Will a team from Spain be the 2026 Champions League winner?Lost
Yes$55 @ 27.9¢
Will Eric Swalwell advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?Lost
Yes$105 @ 21.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?Lost
Yes$232 @ 66.5¢
Will anyone be kicked out of the WHCA Dinner?Won
Yes$116 @ 88.0¢
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?Lost
No$190 @ 19.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$2.5k @ 19.6¢
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?Lost
Yes$130 @ 2.4¢
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$373 @ 45.3¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 45.2¢
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?Lost
No$400 @ 20.9¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?Won
No$338 @ 64.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$138 @ 11.1¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Won
No$335 @ 67.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$10.0k @ 41.0¢
Megaquake by June 30?Lost
Yes$157 @ 19.0¢
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$78 @ 30.0¢
Will Trump visit China by May 15?Lost
No$46 @ 23.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Lost
Yes$24 @ 23.9¢
Will Trump say "Too Late" or "Fed" during Fox interview on Wednesday?Won
Yes$39 @ 78.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Won
No$437 @ 61.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$673 @ 37.4¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$460 @ 23.0¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
No$405 @ 4.5¢
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 35.1¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?Won
No$252 @ 51.7¢
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?Lost
No$130 @ 56.0¢
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?Won
Yes$820 @ 41.0¢
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?Lost
No$649 @ 57.2¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$145 @ 29.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$18 @ 1.8¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?Lost
Yes$350 @ 70.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	Politics	No	$9.9k	81.1¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$7.5k	50.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$7.5k	50.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$3.9k	53.6¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$3.3k	83.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$3.2k	45.1¢
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	No	$1.4k	47.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$1.2k	11.5¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$1000	10.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$505	50.5¢
Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027?	Crypto	Yes	$428	21.2¢
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$350	17.5¢
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$143	4.3¢
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$130	27.2¢
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$100	20.0¢
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Sports	Yes	$100	5.0¢
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Politics	No	$75	60.0¢
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	Politics	Yes	$55	21.0¢
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Economy	Yes	$23	0.5¢
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?	Science	Yes	$16	8.0¢
Will Dune: Messiah have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Culture	Yes	$11	1.7¢
Natural Disaster in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$4	3.0¢
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Politics	Yes	$2	51.0¢

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?Politics
No$9.9k @ 81.1¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$7.5k @ 50.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$7.5k @ 50.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$3.9k @ 53.6¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$3.3k @ 83.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
Yes$3.2k @ 45.1¢
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
No$1.4k @ 47.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$1.2k @ 11.5¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$1000 @ 10.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$505 @ 50.5¢
Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027?Crypto
Yes$428 @ 21.2¢
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?Crypto
Yes$350 @ 17.5¢
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$143 @ 4.3¢
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$130 @ 27.2¢
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?Politics
Yes$100 @ 20.0¢
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship?Sports
Yes$100 @ 5.0¢
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Politics
No$75 @ 60.0¢
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?Politics
Yes$55 @ 21.0¢
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy
Yes$23 @ 0.5¢
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?Science
Yes$16 @ 8.0¢
Will Dune: Messiah have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Culture
Yes$11 @ 1.7¢
Natural Disaster in 2026?Tech
Yes$4 @ 3.0¢
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Politics
Yes$2 @ 51.0¢