← Smart money
0xcc26…32ca
SharpEdge
+4.0pp
ROI
+59%
Win rate
18% @ 14.3¢
Brier
0.095
Resolved
841
Avg size
$192
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 19% (4/21) | +47% | 21 |
| Tech | 33% (1/3) | +67% | 3 |
| Geopolitics | 0% (0/3) | -100% | 3 |
| Crypto | 67% (2/3) | +92% | 3 |
| Other | 0% (0/2) | -100% | 2 |
- Politics21 bets
- Hit rate
- 19% (4/21)
- ROI
- +47%
- Tech3 bets
- Hit rate
- 33% (1/3)
- ROI
- +67%
- Geopolitics3 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/3)
- ROI
- -100%
- Crypto3 bets
- Hit rate
- 67% (2/3)
- ROI
- +92%
- Other2 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/2)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
22% hit · 7/32- Yes$67.0k @ 11.4¢
- Yes$154 @ 1.5¢
- Yes$1.2k @ 9.7¢
- Yes$319 @ 31.1¢
- Yes$153 @ 1.4¢
- No$28.0k @ 36.8¢
- Yes$7.5k @ 1.6¢
- Yes$630 @ 4.0¢
- Yes$310 @ 0.5¢
- No$52 @ 2.9¢
- No$0 @ 1.0¢
- Yes$19.0k @ 18.8¢
- No$1.4k @ 14.8¢
- No$10.4k @ 33.6¢
- Yes$14.1k @ 73.7¢
- Yes$6.5k @ 25.0¢
- Yes$127 @ 5.0¢
- Yes$385 @ 7.7¢
- Yes$40 @ 0.8¢
- No$5 @ 0.1¢
- No$615 @ 12.3¢
- Yes$668 @ 32.5¢
- Yes$220 @ 6.8¢
- No$695 @ 68.6¢
- Yes$410 @ 21.2¢
- Yes$248 @ 0.8¢
- No$148 @ 0.2¢
- Yes$83 @ 5.8¢
- No$160 @ 4.0¢
- Yes$187 @ 1.8¢
- No$186 @ 15.5¢
- No$490 @ 49.0¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Politics | No | $5.5k | 39.3¢ |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? | Politics | No | $3.8k | 79.1¢ |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | Politics | Yes | $3.7k | 41.1¢ |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | Politics | No | $1.2k | 22.5¢ |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? | Politics | Yes | $940 | 9.4¢ |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? | Tech | Yes | $936 | 48.4¢ |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | Politics | No | $528 | 17.7¢ |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | Politics | Yes | $439 | 2.8¢ |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Politics | Yes | $127 | 5.0¢ |
| US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? | Politics | Yes | $24 | 6.2¢ |
- No$5.5k @ 39.3¢
- No$3.8k @ 79.1¢
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?PoliticsYes$3.7k @ 41.1¢
- No$1.2k @ 22.5¢
- Yes$940 @ 9.4¢
- Yes$936 @ 48.4¢
- No$528 @ 17.7¢
- Yes$439 @ 2.8¢
- Yes$127 @ 5.0¢
- Yes$24 @ 6.2¢