0xcbff…e8e7

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xcbff940cfb4d3a91a9dc1012d513c6046b16e8e7
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.4pp

ROI

+17%

Win rate

73% @ 65.6¢

Brier

0.106

Resolved

248

Avg size

$144

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	38% (18/48)	+14%	48
Politics	58% (15/26)	+21%	26
Tech	75% (3/4)	-36%	4
Geopolitics	100% (2/2)	+38%	2
Culture	100% (2/2)	+26%	2
Crypto	50% (1/2)	-98%	2
Sports	100% (1/1)	+43%	1

Other48 bets
Hit rate
38% (18/48)
ROI
+14%
Politics26 bets
Hit rate
58% (15/26)
ROI
+21%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
-36%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+38%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+26%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-98%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+43%

Track record

49% hit · 42/85

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?	Yes	$6	6.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	No	$5	76.0¢	Won
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage	EYEBALLERS	$15	7.1¢	Lost
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	No	$3	65.0¢	Won
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	Yes	$3	13.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 3?	No	$6	30.5¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$685	87.7¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$26	13.0¢	Lost
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$68	34.0¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	Yes	$36	86.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 18?	Yes	$5	24.9¢	Lost
Warriors vs. Kings	Warriors	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	No	$174	87.0¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	Yes	$22	11.0¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in 2026?	No	$46	5.7¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$1.5k	70.2¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$286	41.5¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?	No	$44	63.3¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?	Yes	$76	13.7¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$3.1k	82.7¢	Won
Will BW Industrial Holdings not IPO before June 2026?	No	$160	80.0¢	Lost
Solstice FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	$82	89.6¢	Won
Will Arxis’s market cap be between $11B and $12B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$38	75.0¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's video get between 66 and 68 million views on day 3?	Yes	$72	82.0¢	Won
Will Steve Witkoff attend Trump’s Xi summit?	No	$851	79.2¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	$792	79.7¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$7	59.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$624	5.7¢	Lost
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	$6	66.1¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	No	$37	62.5¢	Lost
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	Yes	$7	88.0¢	Lost
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?	Yes	$16	15.0¢	Lost
Will Broadcom Q2 AI revenue be above $11.0B?	No	$3	47.0¢	Won
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	$10	70.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?	Yes	$1.1k	76.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$851	63.0¢	Won
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?	No	$7	2.9¢	Lost
Will Trump say "The State of the Union is strong" during the 2026 State of the Union address?	Yes	$7	12.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 20?	No	$2	4.0¢	Lost
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?	Yes	$14	23.3¢	Won
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	$5	3.4¢	Lost
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5	Under	$19	80.0¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's video get between 68 and 70 million views on day 3?	No	$73	86.0¢	Won
Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-2.5)	San Jose Earthquakes	$3	70.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	Yes	$26	13.0¢	Lost
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Michigan Wolverines	Alabama Crimson Tide	$10	25.0¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	$851	85.0¢	Won
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026?	Yes	$43	80.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?	No	$14	52.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	$5.3k	78.5¢	Won

Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?Lost
Yes$6 @ 6.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?Won
No$5 @ 76.0¢
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group StageLost
EYEBALLERS$15 @ 7.1¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?Won
No$3 @ 65.0¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?Lost
Yes$3 @ 13.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 3?Lost
No$6 @ 30.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$685 @ 87.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$26 @ 13.0¢
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$68 @ 34.0¢
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?Won
Yes$36 @ 86.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 18?Lost
Yes$5 @ 24.9¢
Warriors vs. KingsLost
Warriors$1 @ 0.1¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Won
No$174 @ 87.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Lost
Yes$22 @ 11.0¢
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in 2026?Lost
No$46 @ 5.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
No$1.5k @ 70.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$286 @ 41.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?Won
No$44 @ 63.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?Lost
Yes$76 @ 13.7¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$3.1k @ 82.7¢
Will BW Industrial Holdings not IPO before June 2026?Lost
No$160 @ 80.0¢
Solstice FDV above $400M one day after launch?Won
No$82 @ 89.6¢
Will Arxis’s market cap be between $11B and $12B at market close on IPO day?Lost
Yes$38 @ 75.0¢
Will MrBeast's video get between 66 and 68 million views on day 3?Won
Yes$72 @ 82.0¢
Will Steve Witkoff attend Trump’s Xi summit?Won
No$851 @ 79.2¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Won
No$792 @ 79.7¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$7 @ 59.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$624 @ 5.7¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Lost
No$6 @ 66.1¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Lost
No$37 @ 62.5¢
Will Trump visit China by April 30?Lost
Yes$7 @ 88.0¢
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?Lost
Yes$16 @ 15.0¢
Will Broadcom Q2 AI revenue be above $11.0B?Won
No$3 @ 47.0¢
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?Won
Yes$10 @ 70.0¢
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 76.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$851 @ 63.0¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?Lost
No$7 @ 2.9¢
Will Trump say "The State of the Union is strong" during the 2026 State of the Union address?Lost
Yes$7 @ 12.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 20?Lost
No$2 @ 4.0¢
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?Won
Yes$14 @ 23.3¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Lost
No$5 @ 3.4¢
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5Lost
Under$19 @ 80.0¢
Will MrBeast's video get between 68 and 70 million views on day 3?Won
No$73 @ 86.0¢
Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-2.5)Won
San Jose Earthquakes$3 @ 70.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?Lost
Yes$26 @ 13.0¢
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Michigan WolverinesLost
Alabama Crimson Tide$10 @ 25.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Won
No$851 @ 85.0¢
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$43 @ 80.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Won
No$14 @ 52.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Won
No$5.3k @ 78.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Geopolitics	No	$13	94.0¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Geopolitics
No$13 @ 94.0¢