0xcb48…be6d

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xcb48f490d8579832e56954cb31dfee630d59be6d
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.1pp

ROI

+6%

Win rate

52% @ 46.2¢

Brier

0.164

Resolved

933

Avg size

$25

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Tech	49% (68/138)	+25%	138
Other	53% (33/62)	-5%	62
Politics	57% (4/7)	-41%	7
Geopolitics	43% (3/7)	-19%	7
Crypto	0% (0/5)	-100%	5
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Tech138 bets
Hit rate
49% (68/138)
ROI
+25%
Other62 bets
Hit rate
53% (33/62)
ROI
-5%
Politics7 bets
Hit rate
57% (4/7)
ROI
-41%
Geopolitics7 bets
Hit rate
43% (3/7)
ROI
-19%
Crypto5 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/5)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

49% hit · 108/220

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	No	$14	55.0¢	Won
Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	$25	32.1¢	Lost
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	Yes	$0	17.0¢	Won
Will DeepSeek be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$1	1.3¢	Lost
Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	$33	40.0¢	Lost
Gemini 4.0 released by October 16, 2026?	No	$42	41.0¢	Lost
Gemini 4.0 released by October 16, 2026?	Yes	$30	60.0¢	Won
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026?	No	$9	29.0¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	No	$357	80.6¢	Won
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?	No	$52	81.0¢	Won
Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?	No	$181	53.3¢	Won
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?	No	$37	21.7¢	Lost
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$14	57.6¢	Won
Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?	Yes	$33	18.9¢	Lost
Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	$295	69.1¢	Lost
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?	No	$5	27.0¢	Lost
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	Yes	$22	65.3¢	Lost
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?	No	$30	60.5¢	Won
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?	Yes	$20	17.0¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$820	75.9¢	Won
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 6, 2026?	No	$27	75.8¢	Won
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 27, 2026?	No	$35	21.3¢	Lost
Gemini Argon released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	$102	87.1¢	Won
Will Meta have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	$20	19.4¢	Lost
Will Moonshot be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$91	83.3¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?	No	$458	85.3¢	Won
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?	No	$136	81.2¢	Won
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?	No	$268	49.6¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$7	32.0¢	Won
Will the next GPT Sol model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	No	$96	78.3¢	Won
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 20, 2026?	No	$79	79.0¢	Won
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	Yes	$35	37.0¢	Lost
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	No	$81	89.0¢	Won
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	No	$16	80.0¢	Won
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	Yes	$21	13.8¢	Lost
Next Google Gemini Flash Model released by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$48	78.7¢	Won
OpenAI resumes training by October 5, 2026?	No	$14	68.0¢	Won
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026?	No	$123	28.4¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 28, 2026?	No	$70	55.9¢	Lost
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$48	59.0¢	Lost
Gemini 4.0 released by October 9, 2026?	No	$46	83.5¢	Won
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1490 and 1500?	Yes	$22	35.0¢	Lost
Will any other model be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	$21	17.0¢	Lost
Will $LAPTOP reach $10 by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$4	3.7¢	Lost
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$92	36.4¢	Won
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026?	No	$32	26.3¢	Won
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?	Yes	$119	44.3¢	Won
Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?	No	$43	82.9¢	Won
Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	Yes	$44	86.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$35	12.0¢	Lost

Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?Won
No$14 @ 55.0¢
Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?Lost
Yes$25 @ 32.1¢
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Won
Yes$0 @ 17.0¢
Will DeepSeek be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.3¢
Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?Lost
Yes$33 @ 40.0¢
Gemini 4.0 released by October 16, 2026?Lost
No$42 @ 41.0¢
Gemini 4.0 released by October 16, 2026?Won
Yes$30 @ 60.0¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$9 @ 29.0¢
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?Won
No$357 @ 80.6¢
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?Won
No$52 @ 81.0¢
Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?Won
No$181 @ 53.3¢
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$37 @ 21.7¢
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$14 @ 57.6¢
Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$33 @ 18.9¢
Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?Lost
Yes$295 @ 69.1¢
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?Lost
No$5 @ 27.0¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$22 @ 65.3¢
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?Won
No$30 @ 60.5¢
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?Lost
Yes$20 @ 17.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Won
Yes$820 @ 75.9¢
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 6, 2026?Won
No$27 @ 75.8¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 27, 2026?Lost
No$35 @ 21.3¢
Gemini Argon released by November 30, 2026?Won
Yes$102 @ 87.1¢
Will Meta have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?Lost
Yes$20 @ 19.4¢
Will Moonshot be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$91 @ 83.3¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?Won
No$458 @ 85.3¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?Won
No$136 @ 81.2¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$268 @ 49.6¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$7 @ 32.0¢
Will the next GPT Sol model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?Won
No$96 @ 78.3¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 20, 2026?Won
No$79 @ 79.0¢
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?Lost
Yes$35 @ 37.0¢
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?Won
No$81 @ 89.0¢
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?Won
No$16 @ 80.0¢
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?Lost
Yes$21 @ 13.8¢
Next Google Gemini Flash Model released by August 31, 2026?Won
Yes$48 @ 78.7¢
OpenAI resumes training by October 5, 2026?Won
No$14 @ 68.0¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026?Lost
No$123 @ 28.4¢
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 28, 2026?Lost
No$70 @ 55.9¢
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$48 @ 59.0¢
Gemini 4.0 released by October 9, 2026?Won
No$46 @ 83.5¢
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1490 and 1500?Lost
Yes$22 @ 35.0¢
Will any other model be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?Lost
Yes$21 @ 17.0¢
Will $LAPTOP reach $10 by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 3.7¢
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$92 @ 36.4¢
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026?Won
No$32 @ 26.3¢
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?Won
Yes$119 @ 44.3¢
Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?Won
No$43 @ 82.9¢
Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?Won
Yes$44 @ 86.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$35 @ 12.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Tech	Yes	$390	54.7¢
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?	Tech	No	$368	86.6¢
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 20% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$334	85.7¢
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Tech	No	$324	79.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$275	85.7¢
Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on November 2, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$267	66.7¢
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$226	62.4¢
Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?	Tech	No	$178	46.2¢
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	Tech	No	$158	57.4¢
Muse Charm released by December 15, 2026?	Tech	No	$151	45.9¢
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$143	56.5¢
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 35% or higher?	Tech	No	$117	78.0¢
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$105	27.4¢
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 31?	Tech	No	$100	34.3¢
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	Tech	Yes	$97	29.1¢
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?	Tech	No	$88	83.0¢
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Tech	No	$85	23.8¢
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	Tech	No	$79	82.0¢
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	Tech	No	$76	63.0¢
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?	Tech	Yes	$66	19.7¢
Mistral announces a training pause by October 31?	Tech	No	$56	90.0¢
Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	Tech	No	$55	61.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of November 2026?	Tech	No	$49	23.8¢
Will the next Grok model (4.8+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?	Tech	No	$48	41.1¢
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?	Tech	No	$46	23.1¢
Another Vatican x Anthropic meeting by October 31?	Tech	No	$46	89.3¢
Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	Tech	Yes	$37	24.7¢
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?	Tech	No	$33	84.0¢
Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$30	28.7¢
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	Tech	No	$17	8.3¢

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Tech
Yes$390 @ 54.7¢
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?Tech
No$368 @ 86.6¢
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 20% or higher?Tech
Yes$334 @ 85.7¢
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?Tech
No$324 @ 79.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$275 @ 85.7¢
Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on November 2, 2026?Tech
Yes$267 @ 66.7¢
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$226 @ 62.4¢
Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?Tech
No$178 @ 46.2¢
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?Tech
No$158 @ 57.4¢
Muse Charm released by December 15, 2026?Tech
No$151 @ 45.9¢
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$143 @ 56.5¢
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 35% or higher?Tech
No$117 @ 78.0¢
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$105 @ 27.4¢
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 31?Tech
No$100 @ 34.3¢
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Tech
Yes$97 @ 29.1¢
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Tech
No$88 @ 83.0¢
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?Tech
No$85 @ 23.8¢
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Tech
No$79 @ 82.0¢
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?Tech
No$76 @ 63.0¢
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?Tech
Yes$66 @ 19.7¢
Mistral announces a training pause by October 31?Tech
No$56 @ 90.0¢
Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?Tech
No$55 @ 61.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of November 2026?Tech
No$49 @ 23.8¢
Will the next Grok model (4.8+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?Tech
No$48 @ 41.1¢
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?Tech
No$46 @ 23.1¢
Another Vatican x Anthropic meeting by October 31?Tech
No$46 @ 89.3¢
Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?Tech
Yes$37 @ 24.7¢
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?Tech
No$33 @ 84.0¢
Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$30 @ 28.7¢
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?Tech
No$17 @ 8.3¢