0xca52…0cdf

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xca52446eaad30e546f344849ae1afd92eb360cdf
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.0pp

ROI

+15%

Win rate

45% @ 39.5¢

Brier

0.117

Resolved

2260

Avg size

$29

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	52% (215/411)	+11%	411
Tech	39% (11/28)	+46%	28
Politics	47% (9/19)	+54%	19
Sports	0% (0/6)	-100%	6
Geopolitics	33% (2/6)	-63%	6
Economy	50% (1/2)	+43%	2

Other411 bets
Hit rate
52% (215/411)
ROI
+11%
Tech28 bets
Hit rate
39% (11/28)
ROI
+46%
Politics19 bets
Hit rate
47% (9/19)
ROI
+54%
Sports6 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/6)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics6 bets
Hit rate
33% (2/6)
ROI
-63%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+43%

Track record

50% hit · 238/472

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	No	$50	68.0¢	Lost
Nothing Ever Happens: AI Edition	Yes	$2	61.0¢	Won
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?	No	$106	78.3¢	Won
Will anyone say "Polymarket" during South Park's prediction market episode?	No	$25	75.7¢	Lost
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?	No	$4	79.0¢	Lost
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 20?	No	$25	57.0¢	Won
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	$11	13.0¢	Lost
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?	Yes	$363	71.9¢	Won
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?	Yes	$188	85.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	Yes	$59	26.2¢	Lost
Brian Thompson Perp arrested by Friday?	No	$20	55.0¢	Lost
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025?	No	$130	81.2¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	$1.2k	77.8¢	Lost
Will Biden pardon Adam Schiff?	No	$40	70.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	$18	77.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?	Yes	$55	2.3¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on January 31?	Yes	$5	3.1¢	Lost
Trump cabinet member out by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$10	58.0¢	Won
US government shutdown by October 1?	Yes	$30	65.0¢	Won
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	$35	42.6¢	Won
Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney?	No	$45	75.0¢	Lost
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?	No	$46	37.0¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	No	$240	85.0¢	Won
Internet access restored in Iran by Friday?	No	$40	79.4¢	Lost
Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025?	Yes	$30	29.7¢	Won
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?	No	$20	70.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	Yes	$126	41.3¢	Lost
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?	No	$300	83.0¢	Won
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on October 31?	Yes	$9	2.5¢	Lost
SpaceX Flight 7 launch before February 2025?	No	$1	0.4¢	Lost
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by October 31?	No	$50	66.1¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	$212	89.8¢	Won
Cilia Flores released from custody by January 31, 2026?	No	$56	88.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	$480	77.2¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30?	Yes	$9	2.4¢	Lost
Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026?	Yes	$6	58.0¢	Won
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30?	Yes	$10	28.0¢	Lost
Will Ding Liren win Game 13 of the World Chess Championship?	Yes	$9	4.2¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?	Yes	$68	3.2¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$30	71.0¢	Won
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?	Yes	$106	79.8¢	Won
GPT-5.5 released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$25	61.0¢	Won
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$10	8.0¢	Lost
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1	8.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	No	$200	85.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	Yes	$14	14.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?	No	$170	84.9¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$18	70.3¢	Won
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?	No	$238	70.4¢	Lost
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?	Yes	$6	26.0¢	Lost

Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Lost
No$50 @ 68.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens: AI EditionWon
Yes$2 @ 61.0¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Won
No$106 @ 78.3¢
Will anyone say "Polymarket" during South Park's prediction market episode?Lost
No$25 @ 75.7¢
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?Lost
No$4 @ 79.0¢
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 20?Won
No$25 @ 57.0¢
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$11 @ 13.0¢
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?Won
Yes$363 @ 71.9¢
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?Won
Yes$188 @ 85.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Lost
Yes$59 @ 26.2¢
Brian Thompson Perp arrested by Friday?Lost
No$20 @ 55.0¢
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025?Won
No$130 @ 81.2¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Lost
No$1.2k @ 77.8¢
Will Biden pardon Adam Schiff?Lost
No$40 @ 70.0¢
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
No$18 @ 77.0¢
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?Lost
Yes$55 @ 2.3¢
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on January 31?Lost
Yes$5 @ 3.1¢
Trump cabinet member out by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$10 @ 58.0¢
US government shutdown by October 1?Won
Yes$30 @ 65.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Won
Yes$35 @ 42.6¢
Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney?Lost
No$45 @ 75.0¢
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?Won
No$46 @ 37.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Won
No$240 @ 85.0¢
Internet access restored in Iran by Friday?Lost
No$40 @ 79.4¢
Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025?Won
Yes$30 @ 29.7¢
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?Lost
No$20 @ 70.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?Lost
Yes$126 @ 41.3¢
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$300 @ 83.0¢
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on October 31?Lost
Yes$9 @ 2.5¢
SpaceX Flight 7 launch before February 2025?Lost
No$1 @ 0.4¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by October 31?Won
No$50 @ 66.1¢
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?Won
Yes$212 @ 89.8¢
Cilia Flores released from custody by January 31, 2026?Won
No$56 @ 88.0¢
Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026?Won
Yes$480 @ 77.2¢
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30?Lost
Yes$9 @ 2.4¢
Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026?Won
Yes$6 @ 58.0¢
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30?Lost
Yes$10 @ 28.0¢
Will Ding Liren win Game 13 of the World Chess Championship?Lost
Yes$9 @ 4.2¢
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?Lost
Yes$68 @ 3.2¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$30 @ 71.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?Won
Yes$106 @ 79.8¢
GPT-5.5 released by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$25 @ 61.0¢
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 8.0¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1 @ 8.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Lost
No$200 @ 85.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Won
Yes$14 @ 14.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?Won
No$170 @ 84.9¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Won
Yes$18 @ 70.3¢
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?Lost
No$238 @ 70.4¢
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?Lost
Yes$6 @ 26.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$1.5k	76.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$1.0k	86.8¢
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$508	52.9¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$464	47.4¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$400	94.7¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$400	74.7¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$351	37.2¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index be less than $5.50 on September 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$350	73.5¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $6.50 on October 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$345	70.3¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	Yes	$233	74.6¢
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$231	12.1¢
Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$220	93.5¢
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$214	67.4¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	Tech	No	$150	85.1¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $4.00 on September 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$150	92.8¢
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	Crypto	Yes	$145	82.0¢
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.40 and $0.45 on September 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$133	94.1¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$100	89.0¢
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$96	25.9¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.50 on September 30, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$80	39.9¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on September 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$71	72.0¢
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.45 and $0.50 on September 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$53	70.0¢
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Business	No	$49	49.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$46	50.4¢
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?	Tech	No	$44	65.8¢
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Economy	No	$42	24.0¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $3.25 on September 30, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$38	22.0¢
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$37	15.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$36	58.7¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$29	27.0¢

Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$1.5k @ 76.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$1.0k @ 86.8¢
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$508 @ 52.9¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$464 @ 47.4¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Tech
No$400 @ 94.7¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Tech
Yes$400 @ 74.7¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$351 @ 37.2¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index be less than $5.50 on September 30, 2026?Tech
No$350 @ 73.5¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $6.50 on October 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$345 @ 70.3¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
Yes$233 @ 74.6¢
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?Politics
Yes$231 @ 12.1¢
Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$220 @ 93.5¢
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?Tech
Yes$214 @ 67.4¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?Tech
No$150 @ 85.1¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $4.00 on September 30, 2026?Tech
No$150 @ 92.8¢
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?Crypto
Yes$145 @ 82.0¢
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.40 and $0.45 on September 30, 2026?Tech
No$133 @ 94.1¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$100 @ 89.0¢
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?Politics
Yes$96 @ 25.9¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.50 on September 30, 2026?Tech
Yes$80 @ 39.9¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on September 30, 2026?Tech
No$71 @ 72.0¢
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.45 and $0.50 on September 30, 2026?Tech
No$53 @ 70.0¢
OpenAI IPO before 2027?Business
No$49 @ 49.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
Yes$46 @ 50.4¢
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?Tech
No$44 @ 65.8¢
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?Economy
No$42 @ 24.0¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $3.25 on September 30, 2026?Tech
Yes$38 @ 22.0¢
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$37 @ 15.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?Tech
Yes$36 @ 58.7¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$29 @ 27.0¢