0xca23…f403

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xca23111ccc44df5c9196627c875a72746a92f403
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+26.8pp

ROI

+51%

Win rate

80% @ 52.9¢

Brier

0.223

Resolved

470

Avg size

$10

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	60% (9/15)	+45%	15
Tech	67% (2/3)	+97%	3
Crypto	67% (2/3)	+72%	3
Geopolitics	100% (2/2)	+19%	2

Politics15 bets
Hit rate
60% (9/15)
ROI
+45%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+97%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+72%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+19%

Track record

65% hit · 15/23

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$623	31.4¢	Lost
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$86	77.8¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$66	33.5¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$8	12.2¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	No	$91	60.0¢	Lost
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	$26	88.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$875	44.2¢	Won
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	No	$6	32.0¢	Lost
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	$91	65.2¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$11	12.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	$300	46.5¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$223	70.9¢	Won
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	No	$242	43.2¢	Won
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	$16	51.0¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	$632	44.7¢	Won
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	$179	67.9¢	Lost
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$751	72.9¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$32	81.4¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	$29	73.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	No	$8	78.1¢	Won
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary be affiliated with the Democratic Party?	Yes	$10	48.0¢	Lost
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	$220	61.1¢	Won
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$33	81.0¢	Won

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$623 @ 31.4¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
No$86 @ 77.8¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$66 @ 33.5¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 12.2¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Lost
No$91 @ 60.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Won
No$26 @ 88.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$875 @ 44.2¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Lost
No$6 @ 32.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Won
No$91 @ 65.2¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$11 @ 12.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Won
No$300 @ 46.5¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$223 @ 70.9¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?Won
No$242 @ 43.2¢
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?Lost
Yes$16 @ 51.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Won
Yes$632 @ 44.7¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$179 @ 67.9¢
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
Yes$751 @ 72.9¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$32 @ 81.4¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Won
Yes$29 @ 73.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?Won
No$8 @ 78.1¢
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary be affiliated with the Democratic Party?Lost
Yes$10 @ 48.0¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?Won
No$220 @ 61.1¢
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
Yes$33 @ 81.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$478	80.4¢
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$345	79.3¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$186	84.3¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	—	No	$102	72.9¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$79	91.9¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$68	82.1¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$46	48.2¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Politics	No	$45	79.0¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$40	56.6¢
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Business	No	$32	53.3¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Politics	No	$31	78.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$25	8.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	Politics	Yes	$23	32.8¢
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Politics	No	$21	75.6¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$21	93.8¢
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$20	55.0¢
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$17	87.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?	—	Yes	$16	22.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$6	12.0¢
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$5	54.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$1	27.0¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$478 @ 80.4¢
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Politics
Yes$345 @ 79.3¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$186 @ 84.3¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?—
No$102 @ 72.9¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Geopolitics
No$79 @ 91.9¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$68 @ 82.1¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
No$46 @ 48.2¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Politics
No$45 @ 79.0¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$40 @ 56.6¢
OpenAI IPO before 2027?Business
No$32 @ 53.3¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Politics
No$31 @ 78.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$25 @ 8.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Politics
Yes$23 @ 32.8¢
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?Politics
No$21 @ 75.6¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?Politics
No$21 @ 93.8¢
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$20 @ 55.0¢
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
No$17 @ 87.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?—
Yes$16 @ 22.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$6 @ 12.0¢
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$5 @ 54.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Politics
Yes$1 @ 27.0¢