0xc98b…6430

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xc98b99ed7f9748fb3eb8d13d0e4531d023286430
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.9pp

ROI

+37%

Win rate

53% @ 44.4¢

Brier

0.172

Resolved

1825

Avg size

$104

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	47% (208/446)	+17%	446
Politics	37% (15/41)	+128%	41
Sports	20% (1/5)	+13%	5
Crypto	100% (5/5)	+87%	5
Tech	33% (1/3)	-65%	3
Geopolitics	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Culture	0% (0/2)	-100%	2

Other446 bets
Hit rate
47% (208/446)
ROI
+17%
Politics41 bets
Hit rate
37% (15/41)
ROI
+128%
Sports5 bets
Hit rate
20% (1/5)
ROI
+13%
Crypto5 bets
Hit rate
100% (5/5)
ROI
+87%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-65%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%

Track record

46% hit · 230/504

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 11, 2026?	Yes	$322	28.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 5?	No	$28	54.7¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 6?	Yes	$300	39.3¢	Lost
Will Santa deliver between 8,200,000,000 and 8,300,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?	No	$50	36.9¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	No	$80	20.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$178	35.6¢	Won
Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	Yes	$1.5k	83.4¢	Won
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?	Yes	$1.0k	86.6¢	Won
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	No	$50	4.2¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	Yes	$550	52.3¢	Won
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?	No	$20	20.0¢	Lost
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?	Yes	$380	87.4¢	Won
Will Wales win on 2025-11-18?	Yes	$150	61.0¢	Won
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 25% in February?	No	$200	42.7¢	Lost
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 25% in February?	Yes	$150	65.0¢	Won
Epstein client list released in 2025?	Yes	$10	2.9¢	Lost
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?	Yes	$28	4.6¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?	Yes	$10	1.6¢	Lost
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	$300	55.4¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 by December 31, 2025?	No	$120	6.1¢	Lost
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?	Yes	$116	14.5¢	Lost
Arsenal FC vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score	Yes	$75	60.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?	Yes	$5	0.8¢	Lost
Will Andy Byron rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?	No	$200	80.1¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$486	71.3¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$195	13.0¢	Lost
Will Trump's 2pm signing event not air?	No	$60	6.0¢	Lost
S&P 500 all time high by December 31?	No	$386	27.9¢	Lost
Will Lady Gaga win 3 Grammys?	No	$1.3k	89.5¢	Won
Will Lady Gaga win 3 Grammys?	Yes	$430	61.4¢	Lost
Internet access restored in Iran by Friday?	Yes	$2.7k	82.2¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.4k	12.1¢	Lost
Over $1M committed to the Foresee public sale?	No	$900	89.8¢	Won
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$300	75.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 16?	Yes	$100	30.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	No	$500	58.0¢	Won
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$645	86.0¢	Won
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?	No	$255	82.9¢	Won
Clavicular charged by Jan 31?	No	$203	58.0¢	Won
Clavicular charged by Jan 31?	Yes	$50	48.0¢	Lost
Will Brian Armstrong say "Prediction Market" at the Coinbase product showcase on December 17?	No	$10	9.9¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 18?	No	$250	45.2¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 23?	Yes	$200	56.8¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?	Yes	$9	8.0¢	Lost
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January?	No	$35	35.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Nuclear" at National Defense Authorization Act signing on December 18?	Yes	$55	27.5¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 17?	Yes	$75	23.0¢	Lost
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 25, 2026?	Yes	$224	89.7¢	Won
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?	Yes	$196	75.0¢	Won
Will the government shutdown end November 10?	Yes	$5	0.6¢	Lost

Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 11, 2026?Lost
Yes$322 @ 28.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 5?Won
No$28 @ 54.7¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 6?Lost
Yes$300 @ 39.3¢
Will Santa deliver between 8,200,000,000 and 8,300,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?Lost
No$50 @ 36.9¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Lost
No$80 @ 20.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$178 @ 35.6¢
Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 83.4¢
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?Won
Yes$1.0k @ 86.6¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Lost
No$50 @ 4.2¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Won
Yes$550 @ 52.3¢
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?Lost
No$20 @ 20.0¢
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?Won
Yes$380 @ 87.4¢
Will Wales win on 2025-11-18?Won
Yes$150 @ 61.0¢
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 25% in February?Lost
No$200 @ 42.7¢
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 25% in February?Won
Yes$150 @ 65.0¢
Epstein client list released in 2025?Lost
Yes$10 @ 2.9¢
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?Won
Yes$28 @ 4.6¢
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?Lost
Yes$10 @ 1.6¢
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Lost
Yes$300 @ 55.4¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 by December 31, 2025?Lost
No$120 @ 6.1¢
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?Lost
Yes$116 @ 14.5¢
Arsenal FC vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to ScoreWon
Yes$75 @ 60.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.8¢
Will Andy Byron rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?Won
No$200 @ 80.1¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$486 @ 71.3¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$195 @ 13.0¢
Will Trump's 2pm signing event not air?Lost
No$60 @ 6.0¢
S&P 500 all time high by December 31?Lost
No$386 @ 27.9¢
Will Lady Gaga win 3 Grammys?Won
No$1.3k @ 89.5¢
Will Lady Gaga win 3 Grammys?Lost
Yes$430 @ 61.4¢
Internet access restored in Iran by Friday?Won
Yes$2.7k @ 82.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.4k @ 12.1¢
Over $1M committed to the Foresee public sale?Won
No$900 @ 89.8¢
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?Won
Yes$300 @ 75.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 16?Lost
Yes$100 @ 30.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?Won
No$500 @ 58.0¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$645 @ 86.0¢
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?Won
No$255 @ 82.9¢
Clavicular charged by Jan 31?Won
No$203 @ 58.0¢
Clavicular charged by Jan 31?Lost
Yes$50 @ 48.0¢
Will Brian Armstrong say "Prediction Market" at the Coinbase product showcase on December 17?Lost
No$10 @ 9.9¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 18?Won
No$250 @ 45.2¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 23?Won
Yes$200 @ 56.8¢
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?Lost
Yes$9 @ 8.0¢
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January?Lost
No$35 @ 35.0¢
Will Trump say "Nuclear" at National Defense Authorization Act signing on December 18?Lost
Yes$55 @ 27.5¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 17?Lost
Yes$75 @ 23.0¢
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 25, 2026?Won
Yes$224 @ 89.7¢
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?Won
Yes$196 @ 75.0¢
Will the government shutdown end November 10?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.6¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 11, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$322	28.0¢

Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 11, 2026?Tech
Yes$322 @ 28.0¢