0xc94e…f946

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xc94e45bc1ceee8d0a4f1dda940f779b85de4f946
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.4pp

ROI

+11%

Win rate

84% @ 74.3¢

Brier

0.091

Resolved

135

Avg size

$1.0k

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	83% (33/40)	+8%	40
Sports	59% (17/29)	+10%	29
Politics	86% (19/22)	+16%	22
Geopolitics	100% (5/5)	+18%	5
Economy	100% (1/1)	+13%	1

Other40 bets
Hit rate
83% (33/40)
ROI
+8%
Sports29 bets
Hit rate
59% (17/29)
ROI
+10%
Politics22 bets
Hit rate
86% (19/22)
ROI
+16%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
100% (5/5)
ROI
+18%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+13%

Track record

77% hit · 75/97

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles?	Yes	$664	64.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	$2.0k	86.7¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	No	$2.0k	79.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	$700	87.1¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1.1k	8.9¢	Lost
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	No	$1000	81.0¢	Won
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$661	5.2¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April?	No	$1000	89.3¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	$10.1k	83.1¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Yes	$700	86.0¢	Won
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1.1k	52.5¢	Lost
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?	No	$2.0k	81.5¢	Won
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in August?	No	$503	83.4¢	Won
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$675	61.0¢	Won
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$686	62.0¢	Won
Rakic vs. Murzakanov	Rakic	$1.1k	52.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February?	No	$1.5k	75.6¢	Won
Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	$5.0k	86.2¢	Won
Will Solana reach $110 in March?	No	$2.0k	83.5¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	No	$2.0k	84.0¢	Won
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1.1k	8.7¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?	No	$2.0k	81.2¢	Won
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1.3k	10.6¢	Lost
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$503	78.9¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	$1000	89.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March?	No	$2.0k	84.5¢	Won
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$403	77.0¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	No	$1000	87.0¢	Won
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1.3k	62.7¢	Won
Will Solana reach $130 in February?	No	$1.5k	78.0¢	Won
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1.4k	10.9¢	Lost
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$1.5k	72.7¢	Won
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	$1.0k	80.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	No	$1000	87.7¢	Won
Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025?	No	$3.1k	81.7¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?	No	$1000	73.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?	Yes	$1.5k	73.8¢	Won
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1.7k	83.0¢	Won
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$502	89.0¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	$1000	72.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$800	88.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$2.0k	70.0¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	No	$2.0k	84.0¢	Won
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	$2.0k	80.0¢	Lost
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1.1k	51.0¢	Lost
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	$599	28.2¢	Lost
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$504	72.9¢	Won
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$2.1k	17.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February?	No	$1000	72.0¢	Won
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in March 2026?	No	$2.0k	82.5¢	Won

Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles?Won
Yes$664 @ 64.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Lost
No$2.0k @ 86.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Won
No$2.0k @ 79.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Won
No$700 @ 87.1¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 8.9¢
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$1000 @ 81.0¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$661 @ 5.2¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April?Won
No$1000 @ 89.3¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Won
No$10.1k @ 83.1¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?Won
Yes$700 @ 86.0¢
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 52.5¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Won
No$2.0k @ 81.5¢
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in August?Won
No$503 @ 83.4¢
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$675 @ 61.0¢
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$686 @ 62.0¢
Rakic vs. MurzakanovLost
Rakic$1.1k @ 52.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February?Won
No$1.5k @ 75.6¢
Iran leadership change by May 31?Won
No$5.0k @ 86.2¢
Will Solana reach $110 in March?Won
No$2.0k @ 83.5¢
US forces enter Iran by March 14?Won
No$2.0k @ 84.0¢
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 8.7¢
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?Won
No$2.0k @ 81.2¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 10.6¢
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$503 @ 78.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Won
No$1000 @ 89.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March?Won
No$2.0k @ 84.5¢
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$403 @ 77.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Won
No$1000 @ 87.0¢
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 62.7¢
Will Solana reach $130 in February?Won
No$1.5k @ 78.0¢
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1.4k @ 10.9¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 72.7¢
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?Won
No$1.0k @ 80.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Won
No$1000 @ 87.7¢
Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025?Lost
No$3.1k @ 81.7¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?Won
No$1000 @ 73.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 73.8¢
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$1.7k @ 83.0¢
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$502 @ 89.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Won
No$1000 @ 72.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
No$800 @ 88.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$2.0k @ 70.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?Won
No$2.0k @ 84.0¢
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?Lost
No$2.0k @ 80.0¢
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 51.0¢
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Lost
Yes$599 @ 28.2¢
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$504 @ 72.9¢
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$2.1k @ 17.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February?Won
No$1000 @ 72.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in March 2026?Won
No$2.0k @ 82.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$2.0k	85.5¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.5k	88.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.5k	91.3¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Politics	Yes	$1000	83.4¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$1000	83.0¢
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?	Geopolitics	No	$880	87.8¢
Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$500	94.0¢
Pakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$500	78.9¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$2.0k @ 85.5¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$1.5k @ 88.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?Politics
No$1.5k @ 91.3¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Politics
Yes$1000 @ 83.4¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$1000 @ 83.0¢
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?Geopolitics
No$880 @ 87.8¢
Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$500 @ 94.0¢
Pakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$500 @ 78.9¢