0xc91b…93bd

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xc91b7d9f4463c9985f562149c31841cde87793bd
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.7pp

ROI

+12%

Win rate

52% @ 46.1¢

Brier

0.199

Resolved

3242

Avg size

$48

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	40% (37/93)	+20%	93
Other	38% (19/50)	-17%	50
Geopolitics	48% (14/29)	+12%	29
Tech	35% (6/17)	+10%	17
Sports	33% (2/6)	-16%	6
Economy	33% (1/3)	+0%	3
Culture	100% (1/1)	+37%	1
Crypto	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Politics93 bets
Hit rate
40% (37/93)
ROI
+20%
Other50 bets
Hit rate
38% (19/50)
ROI
-17%
Geopolitics29 bets
Hit rate
48% (14/29)
ROI
+12%
Tech17 bets
Hit rate
35% (6/17)
ROI
+10%
Sports6 bets
Hit rate
33% (2/6)
ROI
-16%
Economy3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+0%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+37%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

40% hit · 80/200

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?	Yes	$18	18.6¢	Lost
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$21	2.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$25	41.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$33	77.2¢	Won
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	$4.5k	39.6¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$623	59.1¢	Won
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$13	6.2¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	Yes	$70	28.5¢	Lost
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	$15	7.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$16.4k	70.7¢	Won
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?	No	$33	10.0¢	Lost
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	No	$85	3.6¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$102	16.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	No	$59	33.5¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19?	Yes	$4	4.0¢	Lost
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?	Yes	$5	11.6¢	Lost
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?	No	$1.2k	30.7¢	Won
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	No	$10	10.0¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	Yes	$6.9k	63.4¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$20	39.0¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	$410	80.4¢	Won
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	No	$1.0k	72.3¢	Won
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.4k	27.7¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	No	$98	82.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$18	0.7¢	Lost
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	No	$9	9.0¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	No	$330	71.9¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	Yes	$93	29.0¢	Lost
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	$69	23.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$270	52.9¢	Won
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	No	$244	27.8¢	Lost
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	No	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?	Yes	$2.7k	72.3¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$2	0.8¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?	No	$1.1k	27.3¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Yes	$533	73.5¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	No	$39	13.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?	Yes	$4	1.5¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$79	5.0¢	Lost
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?	Yes	$67	21.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	$5.6k	50.2¢	Won
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	$15	9.9¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	Yes	$45	15.0¢	Lost
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$60	0.3¢	Lost
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	No	$57	7.0¢	Lost
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$19	23.9¢	Lost
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?	Yes	$2.6k	69.1¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?	No	$1.7k	80.0¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?	Yes	$132	28.9¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	$2.2k	46.0¢	Lost

Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?Lost
Yes$18 @ 18.6¢
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$21 @ 2.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$25 @ 41.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$33 @ 77.2¢
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Lost
No$4.5k @ 39.6¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$623 @ 59.1¢
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$13 @ 6.2¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Lost
Yes$70 @ 28.5¢
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Lost
Yes$15 @ 7.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$16.4k @ 70.7¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?Lost
No$33 @ 10.0¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$85 @ 3.6¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$102 @ 16.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Lost
No$59 @ 33.5¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19?Lost
Yes$4 @ 4.0¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?Lost
Yes$5 @ 11.6¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?Won
No$1.2k @ 30.7¢
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?Lost
No$10 @ 10.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Lost
Yes$6.9k @ 63.4¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Won
Yes$20 @ 39.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
Yes$410 @ 80.4¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Won
No$1.0k @ 72.3¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.4k @ 27.7¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Won
No$98 @ 82.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$18 @ 0.7¢
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$9 @ 9.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Won
No$330 @ 71.9¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Lost
Yes$93 @ 29.0¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Won
No$69 @ 23.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
Yes$270 @ 52.9¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$244 @ 27.8¢
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 1.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?Won
Yes$2.7k @ 72.3¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?Lost
No$1.1k @ 27.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Won
Yes$533 @ 73.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Won
No$39 @ 13.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?Lost
Yes$4 @ 1.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$79 @ 5.0¢
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?Lost
Yes$67 @ 21.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Won
No$5.6k @ 50.2¢
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Lost
Yes$15 @ 9.9¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Lost
Yes$45 @ 15.0¢
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$60 @ 0.3¢
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$57 @ 7.0¢
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$19 @ 23.9¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?Lost
Yes$2.6k @ 69.1¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?Won
No$1.7k @ 80.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?Lost
Yes$132 @ 28.9¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Lost
No$2.2k @ 46.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$3.5k	70.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.6k	84.7¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$1.5k	50.1¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$1.4k	48.6¢
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.3k	26.1¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$820	79.9¢
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Tech	No	$809	49.1¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$787	46.8¢
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Politics	No	$486	52.0¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$413	44.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Politics	No	$385	77.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Politics	No	$291	16.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Politics	No	$279	55.4¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$260	77.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Politics	Yes	$230	45.6¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$220	20.1¢
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$115	23.0¢
Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$65	18.6¢
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Tech	Anthropic	$45	80.0¢
Will 0 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$37	97.4¢
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$35	22.7¢
Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$13	66.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$8	0.8¢
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?	Tech	Yes	$5	5.5¢
Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$2	31.0¢
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.0¢
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.0¢
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.0¢
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.0¢
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.0¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$3.5k @ 70.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$1.6k @ 84.7¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$1.5k @ 50.1¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$1.4k @ 48.6¢
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?Politics
No$1.3k @ 26.1¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Tech
No$820 @ 79.9¢
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Tech
No$809 @ 49.1¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$787 @ 46.8¢
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics
No$486 @ 52.0¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?Politics
Yes$413 @ 44.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Politics
No$385 @ 77.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Politics
No$291 @ 16.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Politics
No$279 @ 55.4¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$260 @ 77.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Politics
Yes$230 @ 45.6¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Tech
Yes$220 @ 20.1¢
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?Politics
Yes$115 @ 23.0¢
Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$65 @ 18.6¢
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?Tech
Anthropic$45 @ 80.0¢
Will 0 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$37 @ 97.4¢
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$35 @ 22.7¢
Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$13 @ 66.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$8 @ 0.8¢
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?Tech
Yes$5 @ 5.5¢
Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$2 @ 31.0¢
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢