0xc8b8…c770

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xc8b8880b91effc64f4ce9d5869b9767a55a6c770
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+2.6pp

ROI

+34%

Win rate

13% @ 10.8¢

Brier

0.093

Resolved

3760

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	19% (107/577)	+59%	577
Politics	15% (6/40)	-71%	40
Geopolitics	0% (0/11)	-100%	11

Other577 bets
Hit rate
19% (107/577)
ROI
+59%
Politics40 bets
Hit rate
15% (6/40)
ROI
-71%
Geopolitics11 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/11)
ROI
-100%

Track record

18% hit · 113/628

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Sam Altman attend presidential inauguration?	No	$3	0.4¢	Lost
Will India agree to stop buying Russian oil by August 31?	Yes	$3	3.1¢	Lost
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 9?	Yes	$1	9.3¢	Lost
Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday over 7%?	Yes	$1	1.2¢	Lost
Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?	Yes	$3	42.0¢	Lost
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 27?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by Friday?	Yes	$0	3.2¢	Lost
Will ICC withdraw its arrest warrant against Netanyahu before July?	Yes	$2	3.6¢	Lost
Russian strike on Poland by September 30?	Yes	$3	6.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Putin" or "Zelenskyy" while addressing the nation on December 17?	Yes	$25	49.8¢	Lost
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 25% in February?	Yes	$3	12.2¢	Won
Iran Strike on Israel by January 15?	Yes	$3	1.4¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of April 6 2026?	No	$0	1.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	Yes	$11	18.7¢	Won
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday?	Yes	$9	1.0¢	Lost
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026?	Yes	$6	3.1¢	Lost
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in 2025?	Yes	$45	14.9¢	Lost
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$32	5.9¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine in 2025?	Yes	$46	9.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 10 executive orders in June?	Yes	$0	9.0¢	Won
Iran leadership change by September 30?	Yes	$1	0.8¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	Yes	$3	1.6¢	Lost
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$14	45.2¢	Lost
Will Chloe Malle be named the next editor-in-chief of Vogue?	Yes	$72	70.9¢	Won
Will Trump publicly disparage Elon before July?	No	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Yunakivka before July?	No	$2	14.7¢	Won
Will Russia capture Yunakivka before July?	Yes	$1	19.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?	Yes	$4	3.8¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 5 executive orders in July?	Yes	$1	0.5¢	Lost
Trump exits Russia x Ukraine negotiations before July?	Yes	$5	8.7¢	Lost
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$15	9.7¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump sign less than 5 executive orders in April?	Yes	$0	1.2¢	Lost
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 21?	Yes	$1	0.3¢	Lost
Iran leadership change by July 31?	Yes	$2	1.9¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk attend presidential inauguration?	No	$1	3.8¢	Lost
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	Yes	$2	5.6¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May?	Yes	$2	6.5¢	Won
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 26?	No	$1	0.9¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 12?	No	$0	1.0¢	Lost
Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election?	Yes	$3	47.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by November 30?	Yes	$1	10.0¢	Lost
Less than 49 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?	No	$3	10.8¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?	Yes	$24	24.0¢	Won
Elon Musk out as Senior Advisor to Trump in May?	Yes	$4	14.6¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $63-$70 in June?	Yes	$33	16.0¢	Won
India military strike on Pakistan today?	Yes	$1	3.1¢	Lost
Seven Trump Cabinet confirmations in January?	Yes	$11	5.2¢	Lost
AOC spotted in another private jet in April?	Yes	$0	2.0¢	Lost
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 5?	No	$5	49.0¢	Won

Will Sam Altman attend presidential inauguration?Lost
No$3 @ 0.4¢
Will India agree to stop buying Russian oil by August 31?Lost
Yes$3 @ 3.1¢
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 9?Lost
Yes$1 @ 9.3¢
Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday over 7%?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.2¢
Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?Lost
Yes$3 @ 42.0¢
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 27?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by Friday?Lost
Yes$0 @ 3.2¢
Will ICC withdraw its arrest warrant against Netanyahu before July?Lost
Yes$2 @ 3.6¢
Russian strike on Poland by September 30?Lost
Yes$3 @ 6.0¢
Will Trump say "Putin" or "Zelenskyy" while addressing the nation on December 17?Lost
Yes$25 @ 49.8¢
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 25% in February?Won
Yes$3 @ 12.2¢
Iran Strike on Israel by January 15?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 Week of April 6 2026?Lost
No$0 @ 1.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Won
Yes$11 @ 18.7¢
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday?Lost
Yes$9 @ 1.0¢
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 3.1¢
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in 2025?Lost
Yes$45 @ 14.9¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$32 @ 5.9¢
Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine in 2025?Lost
Yes$46 @ 9.0¢
Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 10 executive orders in June?Won
Yes$0 @ 9.0¢
Iran leadership change by September 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.8¢
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.6¢
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by January 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$14 @ 45.2¢
Will Chloe Malle be named the next editor-in-chief of Vogue?Won
Yes$72 @ 70.9¢
Will Trump publicly disparage Elon before July?Lost
No$0 @ 0.2¢
Will Russia capture Yunakivka before July?Won
No$2 @ 14.7¢
Will Russia capture Yunakivka before July?Lost
Yes$1 @ 19.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?Lost
Yes$4 @ 3.8¢
Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 5 executive orders in July?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.5¢
Trump exits Russia x Ukraine negotiations before July?Lost
Yes$5 @ 8.7¢
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$15 @ 9.7¢
Will Donald Trump sign less than 5 executive orders in April?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.2¢
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 21?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.3¢
Iran leadership change by July 31?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.9¢
Will Elon Musk attend presidential inauguration?Lost
No$1 @ 3.8¢
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?Lost
Yes$2 @ 5.6¢
Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May?Won
Yes$2 @ 6.5¢
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 26?Lost
No$1 @ 0.9¢
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 12?Lost
No$0 @ 1.0¢
Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election?Lost
Yes$3 @ 47.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by November 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 10.0¢
Less than 49 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?Lost
No$3 @ 10.8¢
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?Won
Yes$24 @ 24.0¢
Elon Musk out as Senior Advisor to Trump in May?Won
Yes$4 @ 14.6¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $63-$70 in June?Won
Yes$33 @ 16.0¢
India military strike on Pakistan today?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.1¢
Seven Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? Lost
Yes$11 @ 5.2¢
AOC spotted in another private jet in April?Lost
Yes$0 @ 2.0¢
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 5?Won
No$5 @ 49.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Iran coup attempt by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$23	9.3¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$15	5.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$13	6.5¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$12	12.4¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$12	12.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$9	0.9¢
Iran leadership change by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$6	2.0¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$5	10.8¢
Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 15?	Geopolitics	Yes	$5	10.0¢
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$5	6.7¢
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2	4.5¢
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$1	6.5¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$1	4.7¢

Iran coup attempt by December 31?Politics
Yes$23 @ 9.3¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$15 @ 5.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
Yes$13 @ 6.5¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$12 @ 12.4¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
Yes$12 @ 12.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?Politics
Yes$9 @ 0.9¢
Iran leadership change by October 31?Politics
Yes$6 @ 2.0¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$5 @ 10.8¢
Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 15?Geopolitics
Yes$5 @ 10.0¢
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$5 @ 6.7¢
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?Politics
Yes$2 @ 4.5¢
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Politics
Yes$1 @ 6.5¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by October 31?Politics
Yes$1 @ 4.7¢